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Marseille will be magic but this Six Nations is wide open – Andy Goode

France's Gael Fickou and Garry Ringrose of Ireland (Photo by Harry Murphy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

The opening game of the Guinness Six Nations between France and Ireland under the Friday night lights in Marseille might be billed as a title decider already but that’s not necessarily the case.

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We often see some surprise results in the tournament after a Rugby World Cup when teams have made a few more changes than normal, and England have won the last two Six Nations following World Cups.

They are also the team that went furthest in France just a few months ago and they have their toughest two fixtures against Ireland and France in the last couple of rounds so they can play their way into the competition to a certain extent.

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Stuart Lancaster discusses Owen Farrell’s move to Racing 92

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Actions speak louder than words but it’s great to see new skipper Jamie George talking about reconnecting with fans again. All eyes will be on the style of play adopted by Steve Borthwick but it wouldn’t be a shock at all if they won it.

Wales won the previous two titles after World Cups in 2008 and 2012 and nobody is expecting them to be in contention because of the age profile of their squad and the big names missing nowadays, but Warren Gatland is still there.

Team Form

Last 5 Games

1
Wins
4
3
Streak
2
17
Tries Scored
26
-77
Points Difference
87
2/5
First Try
4/5
2/5
First Points
3/5
2/5
Race To 10 Points
4/5

People shouldn’t make the same mistake football’s Alan Hansen did all those years ago when he said about Manchester United, ‘You can’t win anything with kids’. But you do fear for Wales if things don’t go well for them against Scotland in Cardiff in their opening game.

That one will set the tone for the Scots as well. Last year they won their opening two games of the tournament for the first time since 1996 and, with a couple of matches at Murrayfield to follow, they will back themselves to be real contenders if they win in Wales.

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Of course, the same conversation about Scotland has taken place ahead of every Six Nations in recent years but there hasn’t been a great deal of turnover in players since the World Cup and maybe it is the Lionel Messi of rugby’s time, Finn Russell, to finally lead them to a title.

Netflix’s Six Nations: Full Contact documentary has received mixed reviews mainly because certain unions didn’t allow as much access as they could have, but it has added an extra element of excitement ahead of this tournament.

It was in the top three programmes viewed on Netflix in the UK last week so hopefully we will see a second series with unions more on board and giving greater access and a few new fans will be attracted to the sport in the meantime.

I don’t see it as a two-tier Six Nations with Ireland and France at the top ahead of the rest. If anything it’s a top four with Wales and Italy perhaps beneath them, but you can’t argue with the French and Irish being favourites after they have been the top two for the last couple of years.

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Their meeting on Friday night is going to be epic and it will be fascinating to see who can banish their World Cup heartache and if either has a bit of a hangover. It’s almost bittersweet that it is the opening game but it’s a hell of a way to kick things off.

There is an enormous hole in both the France and Ireland sides for this tournament but Antoine Dupont will prove to be a bigger loss than Johnny Sexton because he is head and shoulders above any other player in the world at the moment.

Fixture
Six Nations
France
17 - 38
Full-time
Ireland
All Stats and Data

Sexton was the figurehead of Irish rugby for a long time but Andy Farrell has built such a well-oiled machine that Jack Crowley can slot in without too much of a drop-off, whereas Dupont can win a game on his own as well as setting the tone for France. Maxime Lucu is a really good player but he just isn’t Dupont.

If France beat Ireland in round one, they will go on to win the Grand Slam but the Irish have a tough away fixture at Twickenham as well and it could blow the tournament wide open if they win in Marseille.

If I’m honest, I do see Wales and Italy scrapping it out to avoid the wooden spoon in Cardiff on the final weekend but I really do think any of the other four teams could be lifting the trophy in mid-March.

People might think I’m crazy but Six Nations tournaments following World Cups are notoriously unpredictable anyway and I just think this one is as hard to call as any I can remember.

Everyone expects France and Ireland to come out the blocks strongly but one of them might just experience a hangover and miss their talisman more than people think, while Scotland are lurking and England are waiting in the wings too.

It might all fall flat on its face but England are talking a good game. A change of mindset and a few fresh faces might just spark them into life in terms of the way they play and I certainly wouldn’t rule out the possibility of them going to Lyon on the final Saturday with the title on the line. Far from it.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins
0
Draws
0
Wins
5
Average Points scored
12
33
First try wins
40%
Home team wins
40%
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1 Comment
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Simon 325 days ago

I think France will make a statement on Friday as they are hurting the most from RWC 2023. They will win the Grand Slam.
Wales will surprise Scotland on Saturday and run out comfortable winners. Whether that is enough of a confidence boost to beat Ireland out there is likely to be the key to the rest of their tournament. Gats is a canny operator and he will give structure and defence to the young team and just may let them play what’s in front of them in a change to his usual pragmatic approach and he may just stumble onto a new pattern of play.
Scotland will blow things as usual and the bottom three are likely to be them, Italy and England, who will just stagger on from their relentless and pointless kicking game because Borthwick is way out of his depth. He is similar to Pivac with Wales in that he had a Leicester team who could have been coached by anyone and they would have been successful, much like the Scarlets in Pivac’s reign.
Italy just might surprise both Scotland and England and get their highest position ever.

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JW 2 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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