More than meets the eye: How Wales could triumph in defeat against England

Sport is about competition. Wins and losses – and preferably the former. Everybody loves a dub. Titles, trophies, and championships. Scalps, triumphs, and conquests. Nike tells us to ‘just do it’, but it’s much sweeter when you ‘just do it’ better than anybody else.

Points in the table, names on the pot, and medals in the sock drawer. That long bus journey home flies by when you’re sticky with champagne, and you drag your feet that bit less when Monday’s review is more ‘glowing’ than ‘Spanish Inquisition’. There are two types of people: those who like winning, and liars.

But, sometimes, there is nuance to be found between these two outcomes. Victory versus defeat is not always as dichotomised as the slotting or slaughtering of a touchline conversion (which, rumour has it, women have been known to manage). There are wins to be had even when you find yourself on the wrong end of a scoreline, and that’s worth pondering before the Red Rose storms Cardiff tomorrow afternoon.

They’ve played one another 21 times in the history of the Six Nations, and Wales have beaten England just twice: squeaking it 16–15 in 2009, and then bagelling the newly-crowned World Champions in Swansea six years later, 13–0. The rest have gone to the current title holders, and it’s even more lopsided outside of the tournament – where the world number ones have won all 18. 37 – 2, all told. Rose thorns tend to make light work of feathers.

Since England went professional, they’ve faced off four times, with an average scoreline of 62 – 8. Simon Middleton’s squad might not have returned from New Zealand with the gold, and they might be without some key personnel still – but they’ve plenty of the team who won 30 straight Tests, and will head to the Arms Park as heavy favourites.

In two rounds, they’ve scored 22 tries, haven’t lost a scrum, have conceded a teacher’s pet’s total of ten penalties, and are averaging four points per 22 entry – which is fiendish when you’re topping that metric by some margin, too.

The hosts will lob the kitchen sink at them. Of course they will. Alex Callender will single-handedly fetch every piece of porcelain in Cardiff, and hurl it – her scrunchie clinging on by the usual few strands – at the reigning champions. I don’t think it’ll be enough, but I think they’ll chalk up some significant victories along the way to their first defeat of a mightily impressive campaign.

There’s been a win already: the Arms Park is sold out. For the first time ever, every seat available to the public has been snapped up for a Wales women’s fixture. Those packed stands guarantee a triumph, before Hannah Jones has even led out this ever-more cohesive and threatening outfit. Magnificent.

Put simply, Wales would take huge heart from scoring more and shipping less than they have done in recent years against England. Since 2016, they’ve been nilled twice, and just once crossed the whitewash multiple times. Only France have put more than 15 points on England since Italy managed it in 2016. 2016! That’s before President Trump… before Hamilton had won a Tony… and whilst we were causing suburban pile-ups as we hurtled across roads to capture virtual Pokémon.

There is hope, though: the Welsh attack is transformed, and they’ve scored ten tries already, having only managed twelve in the whole of last year’s tournament. What a result it would be if they could surpass that by tea-time tomorrow – perhaps even notching a bonus point in the process…

Then there’s their defence. Wales held Scotland out for swathes of their clash in Edinburgh a fortnight ago, and have missed fewer tackles than anyone in the competition, whilst putting in the most dominant shots. England scored 58 at Kingsholm last year: tomorrow’s hosts will be determined to plug some of those holes – and they, frankly, should. They are good enough.

Wales are into their second year of professionalism now, and the improvements in their conditioning are clear to see – not least in the fact their front row played 79 minutes at the DAM Health Stadium. Teams often hustle England a bit before capitulating, but what if Wales never capitulated?

Even if they’re outplayed by the Roses, it’d be massive for a team with top tier WXV aspirations to keep any part of tomorrow’s 80 minutes from feeling processional. There was so much promise in the opening passages of their World Cup warm-up at Ashton Gate – the last time these sides met. Wales trailed 7 – 21 with half an hour gone, and their belief was palpable, but then Helena Rowland happened – and we witnessed a mauling to the tune of 52 unanswered points.

There are definitely further wins to be found in the tightening of their nuts and bolts. Wales are fourth in the standings for set piece, and for their ruck success. Can they maintain that – or even better those numbers – against the most ferocious pack in the competition? And what if they could rattle England’s fundamentals? Pilfer some ruck ball, disrupt the odd lineout, or force a spill or two.

Plenty’s been said about their vastly improved kicking game, and both Keira Bevan and El Snoswill have looked more comfortable and technically proficient than ever before orchestrating these last two matches. There’s an outright win to be had off the tee, too: they’re much more accurate than the Red Roses at present.

Frustratingly, Wales’ discipline remains terrible. For all the positives above, they’re averaging 15 penalties a match, and have conceded four yellow cards already. They cannot afford to lose players to the bin against a side so lethal they often make teams look a woman down when it’s 15 on 15, and – if you give England a free kick – they will thrash it into the corner, and they will punish you. If the Welsh can do better in that department – that’s a real stride forward.

Finally – Wales face France next, and that scheduling is perfect. If they produce the sort of performance tomorrow which forces Gaelle Mignot and David Ortiz to name their strongest 23 for round four’s grapple in Grenoble, then that’s a win. Ioan Cunningham’s side will head to the Alps as underdogs, but much less so than in recent campaigns: they could force France to really fight to defend their impressive home record, and a good innings this week would set that one up beautifully as a potential shoot-out for second spot.

There’s been a lot of talk this Six Nations about ‘closing the gap’ on England. They’re best in the world, seeking a 12th Grand Slam, and currently in cruise control: the gap has been a chasm for all but France for years. More than 40,000 ticket-holders and a trio of Sugababes will descend upon Twickenham in a fortnight’s time for what will be a Grand Slam decider, but there are some significant markers to be chalked in the Welsh ‘win’ column in the meantime.

They have the opportunity to make the Red Roses sit up and scrap for a result before Super Saturday’s finale, and to really take it to the game’s standard-setters. History might remember yet another England win, but Wales can triumph in plenty of ways in the process.