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Mortlock: Axing Giteau Law would set Wallabies back further

Stirling Mortlock

While some former Wallabies are plumping for greater selection of overseas-based players, ex-Test stars Ben Darwin and Stirling Mortlock feel it could see Australia slide further down the world rugby rankings.

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Following a record Bledisloe Cup defeat by New Zealand, Rugby Australia is reportedly looking at lowering the existing 60-cap selection requirement for players outside the domestic competition.

Test greats such as Will Genia called the “Giteau Law” out of date and restrictive and said the Wallabies needed to be able to pick the best Australian players.

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    Former World Cup prop Darwin has a business called Gain Line Analytics, which uses data analysis to prove that cohesion is the key to success.

    He said it wasn’t rugby-specific, using the stability of the Melbourne Storm or Penrith, who have a strong core of juniors as examples.

    “The understanding between the participants of a team is far more predictive of the outcome than the level of skill of the individuals of that team,” Darwin told AAP.

    He said that while bringing overseas players back may work in the short-term, the ramifications for Wallabies could be grave.

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    The 28-Test prop said that by reducing the number of teams feeding into the Wallabies, there would be greater cohesion.

    “The Welsh have a much more cohesive system than they did when we were successful and they did it by reducing the number of teams they were drawing from, from 12 domestic teams to four.

    “When a singular club dominates the Wallabies we’ve won.”

    He said that while it appears to work for South Africa, it was due to a large cohort of Springboks in the last World Cup coming from one team, the Stormers.

    “You can only play that card once, you can’t do that again if you’ve got an overseas-based model.

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    “They’ve used some of their prior cohesion to help them be successful now but it’s a very short-term answer.

    “We already don’t have cohesion with our domestic product and this would 100 per cent decimate that and set us back further.”

    Former Test captain Mortlock backed Darwin’s theory and used his experience at the title-winning Brumbies career to being an inaugural Melbourne player, with players drawn from around the world, as an example.

    “With a team without cohesion, occasionally you can play really well but consistency is extremely challenging,” said Mortlock, who played 80 Tests.

    “I agree that highly cohesive teams create long-lasting success – in rugby union look at the Crusaders, who have big cohesion numbers.

    “To bring back players open slather from overseas who aren’t forming combinations with the bulk of your squad, that’s going to undermine your cohesion numbers.

    “Getting rid of the Giteau rule is illogical.”

    Mortlock said prioritising the Wallabies, as Argentina did in effectively playing the national team in the Super Rugby competition, or a bigger focus on the under 20s program, could help with increasing shared experiences.

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    J
    JW 53 minutes ago
    Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

    It is now 22 years since Michael Lewis published his groundbreaking treatise on winning against the odds

    I’ve never bothered looking at it, though I have seen a move with Clint as a scout/producer. I’ve always just figured it was basic stuff for the age of statistics, is that right?

    Following the Moneyball credo, the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available

    This is actually a great example of what I’m thinking of. This concept has abosolutely nothing to do with Moneyball, it is simple being able to realise how skillsets tie together and which ones are really revelant.


    It sounds to me now like “moneyball” was just a necessity, it was like scienctest needing to come up with some random experiment to make all the other world scholars believe that Earth was round. The American sporting scene is very unique, I can totally imagine one of it’s problems is rich old owners not wanting to move with the times and understand how the game has changed. Some sort of mesiah was needed to convert the faithful.


    While I’m at this point in the article I have to say, now the NRL is a sport were one would stand up and pay attention to the moneyball phenom. Like baseball, it’s a sport of hundreds of identical repetitions, and very easy to data point out.

    the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available and look to get ahead of an unfair game in the areas it has always been strong: predictive intelligence and rugby ‘smarts’

    Actually while I’m still here, Opta Expected Points analysis is the one new tool I have found interesting in the age of data. Seen how the random plays out as either likely, or unlikely, in the data’s (and algorithms) has actually married very closely to how I saw a lot of contests pan out.


    Engaging return article Nick. I wonder, how much of money ball is about strategy as apposed to picks, those young fella’s got ahead originally because they were picking players that played their way right? Often all you here about is in regards to players, quick phase ruck ball, one out or straight up, would be were I’d imagine the best gains are going to be for a data driven leap using an AI model of how to structure your phases. Then moving to tactically for each opposition.

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