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Neil Jenkins has made a ballsy World Cup prediction about Wales

By PA
(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

Neil Jenkins is confident that current pain can become long-term gain for Wales by the time they arrive at this year’s World Cup. Two years after winning the Guinness Six Nations title and going within touching distance of a Grand Slam, Wales could end up with a first wooden spoon since 2003.

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They face Italy in Rome on Saturday where the losers are likely to finish bottom of this season’s championship. Wales have lost three successive games since Warren Gatland returned as head coach, while his predecessor Wayne Pivac oversaw just three wins from his last 12 Tests at the helm.

Gatland’s men have five fixtures left before the World Cup – Italy and France away, followed by tournament warm-up appointments with England (twice) and South Africa – before a tricky competition opener against Fiji in Bordeaux on September 10.

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With Eddie Jones-led Australia also in their pool, some pundits are already fearing the worst. It is 16 years since Wales failed to reach the World Cup knockout phase. “The reality is we probably felt there was going to be some pain about us at this moment in time. We are certainly feeling that,” Wales assistant coach Jenkins said.

“But we have until September to get ourselves right and I believe we can do that. I would like to think that by the time that comes around, we will be in good nick conditioning-wise and our game will have evolved an awful lot. I would like to think we will be going through the gears from now until then to give us a good chance at a World Cup.”

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Wales’ immediate task centres on stopping a resurgent Italian side at Stadio Olimpico. History suggests a Wales victory – they have won seven on the bounce in Rome – but current form indicates that Italy are fully capable of repeating Six Nations successes of 2003 and 2007 at Wales’ expense.

“We are playing a very, very good side and we need to be at full tilt, there is no doubting that, otherwise we could come unstuck,” Jenkins added. “We need to play well, we need to be accurate, we need to be ready to rock on Saturday.

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“I played against some Italian sides in the early 2000s with some fantastic players like Diego (Dominguez) and (Sergio) Parisse, but at this moment in time they have got an awful lot of talent in that team and they are not afraid to play from anywhere.

“They tend to make good decisions as well – it is not just based on throwing the ball about willy-nilly. The reality is we will have to be at our best on Saturday to win. There is no doubting that. We know how good Italy have been.”

Gatland is due to name his team on Thursday, with fly-half Dan Biggar and Leicester flanker Tommy Reffell among those in the frame for recalls. “It takes an awful lot to win at this level, and we have given ourselves chances and opportunities in these games,” Jenkins said.

“You could argue we could have scored 20-plus points in maybe two of the games. There were clear-cut chances (against Ireland and Scotland) that we didn’t take, and we need to get better at that.”

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J
Jfp123 25 minutes ago
Why New Zealand learned more from their July series than France

It will be great if Jalibert improves in defence, but unless and until he improves substantially, I think he should be out of the running for the national team. If you look at the French A side, attack is not usually so much of a problem - they scored 200 points in the last 6 nations without MJ on the pitch. Defence however can be an issue, Penaud isn’t the greatest in that area for a start. So a 10 who is solid in defence is badly needed. And given his poor defence record, MJ would be bound to be targeted by shrewd coaches like Rassi and Razor, so he needs to be able to withstand that.

Also, given sufficient improvement in defence, there are still factors which tell against MJ. I think the 7/1 bench has been a very successful experiment, and for that you need flexible backs who can play in more than one position in case of injury. Then there’s how well the 10 plays with France’s best 9, Dupont. And even if you think MJ is better when there’s no Dupont or 7/1 split, stability in a test team is important, so it’s better not to go chopping and changing the 10 needlessly. There’s also the question of temperament - MJ doesn’t shine at his brightest when it really matters, eg WC quarters and Top14 finals, and look at his test record over the past 2 years.

I see Ntamack as by far the best option at 10. Rugby is a team game, and apart from his excellent defence, there’s his partnership with Dupont, his versatility, and all the other skills that go to making a great team player and a great 10. He’s excellent under the high ball, an area where France tend to have a weakness, and has fine strategic and team management skills, great handling skills and so on.

While having star quality is important, it’s not the be all and end all, as illustrated by UBB this season. Imo, though undoubtedly very good, they underperformed. With best wings, best 9, as Dupont barely played in the Top14, with Jalibert and leading centres and 15, plus a strengthened forward pack, they couldn’t match ST in points scored, despite the latter’s huge injury list which left some positions seriously weakened, at least on paper.

For next season, I hope ST are back to their scintillating best with injuries healed, that LBB is back to rude health for UBB, that the exciting promise of La Rochelle’s and Toulon’s new recruits bears fruit, Bayonne continue to defy their budget and we have a cracking, highly competitive Top14 and Les Bleus triumphant in the autumn internationals and six nations!

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