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New Zealand sorely missed the unpredictability of one of the game's most elusive players

Damian McKenzie

Questions will rightly be asked how New Zealand were so comprehensively outplayed by their English counterparts on Saturday night.

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The All Blacks have been the highest-ranked side in the world since the last World Cup, dropping from the top spot for mere days at a time before reclaiming their place.

There have, of course, been blips in recent times.

Losses to South Africa, Australia and Ireland in the last year raised a few eyebrows. New Zealand were probably lucky to escape from Twickenham last November with a win – likewise, from Pretoria a month prior.

Still, there was every belief that the All Blacks would come right at the World Cup – but it wasn’t to bed.

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New Zealand met a hungrier, more motivated, more youthful opponent who suffocated the All Blacks’ attack, giving them just scraps to work with.

At the end of Saturday’s semi-final loss, New Zealand finished with 44% possession and 38% territory.

New Zealand have historically been a side that are capable of winning games with less ball and less field position than their opponents, but that’s changed in recent times.

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It’s not that the All Blacks have gotten worse, as such, it’s just that defences have tightened up considerably. Fit, rushing defences – combined with lack of any sort of policing of the offside line – have constricted New Zealand’s attack.

The All Blacks managed their tight victory over England in November on the back of dominating territory and possession, but even that barely got them over the line.

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When they’ve found themselves behind on those stats – against Ireland last year, and against Australia and England in 2019 – they’ve also found themselves on the wrong side of the scoreboard.

It’s an issue that Steve Hansen and his fellow All Blacks coaches have seemingly tried to rectify with bringing in hungry, dynamic outside backs.

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“It’s interesting looking at average tries over the last couple of test matches,” said Ian Foster following the defeat. “Defences are getting a lot better organised.

“One try apiece in an England v All Blacks game is not unusual, with both teams trying to suffocate each other. It was frustrating that we didn’t execute as well as we could last night.

“There’s still a great attitude among the players and that’s the key thing. We need to go away and address that [lack of try-scoring].”

Rieko Ioane and Ben Smith, Hansen’s preferred wings for 2018 and the early stages of this season, were dropped ahead of New Zealand’s rematch against Australia in August.

In came young Crusaders tyros George Bridge and Sevu Reece.

There’s been plenty of debate concerning Smith’s demotion, in particular. Would having an extra experienced head on the field against England have made a difference?

The fact of the matter is, however, that Smith is no longer the pacey, hard-to-catch outside back that he once was. He’s still an incredibly good player and safe as houses in the backfield, but the All Blacks needed to find ways to break through defences, and Smith simply didn’t fit the bill.

Reece and Bridge have looked solid for New Zealand since their promotions, but they also found it hard going against England in the semi-final.

Obviously the future All Blacks coach needs to find alternative solutions to breaking down opposition defences, but there is one man who likely could have made a big difference in Saturday’s match.

Damian McKenzie’s ACL injury way back in April was hard to swallow for Chiefs’ fans – but the rest of the country didn’t seem all too fussed. The dominant way of thinking seemed to be that McKenzie’s play was just a bit too high risk, high reward.

Crusaders fans, in particular, were probably quite happy to see Richie Mo’unga take over in the 10 jersey, with Beauden Barrett shifted to fullback.

Come the World Cup finals, however, a relatively green first five is not what you want.

Mo’unga has not faced considerable pressure on the field in his professional career to date. He’s an excellent player and will develop into an exceptional All Black, but he’s had an easy ride behind a dominant Crusaders pack at the Super Rugby level and is still finding his feet on the Test scene.

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Barrett’s best position may well be at fullback, but he’s considerably more used to backpedalling behind a dominated forward pack from 10 than Mo’unga is.

McKenzie, playing at fullback, is one of the most elusive, dangerous counter-attackers in world rugby.

Against Ireland, last year, McKenzie was one of the only All Blacks who actually looked capable of breaching the tight defence. It was a similar story a week earlier against England – he was man-handled at times, but he also kept asking questions of the Red Roses.

In that game against England, McKenzie made four line-breaks (the best of any player on the field) and beat 12 defenders – the same number as the next two most dangerous runners combined.

When defences are as strong as they currently are, the fact of the matter is you sometimes need to throw caution to the wind.

A fit Damian McKenzie would have given the All Blacks a threatening ball-runner from the backfield and also allowed the nation’s most experienced first five to pull the strings from 10.

New Zealand had no answer for England’s outstanding performance in the World Cup semi-final – and Steve Hansen tipped his hat to them:

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R
RedWarrior 10 minutes ago
Three-way race to be number one in World Rugby men's rankings

IF SA and NZ win then its 1,2,3 SA/NZ/IRL Otherwise as you were. This is largely irrelevant beyond bragging rights.


As I have pointed out elsewhere the practical use of the Rankings is to determine the seedings bands for the RWC draw. The draw takes place early 2026 and hopefully the rankings will be taken from then.


Important to be in the top 6, the top 12. (and likely the top 4).

This is because there are now 6 groups in the RWC 2027.

If you are in top 6 you are in Seeding Band 1. That means none of the other top 6 will be in your group.

Seeding Band 2 are teams from 7-12, who will have a top 6 team but no other 7-12 team.

After England's defeat by NZ there is clear water between NZ in 3rd, France in 4th and England in 5th. England are desperate for top4, ill come back and explain why later.

Lets look at Seeding Band 1 and 6th place. If you make 6th, no top 6 team is in your group, you are top dog. If you win your group, you won't be facing a top 6 team in your 1/8th final, you will be facing a weaker team. If you fail to make 6th place you WILL have a top 6 team in your group and if you don't win your group you WILL (probably) meet a top 6 in the 1/8 final. That's massive.


Its Argentina holding 6th now. Assuming England hold 5th, then its a 4 horse race for 6th. Argentina, Scotland, Italy and ...Australia. (ranked 6,7,8,9)

Australia play the Lions in NH summer 2025 they are running out of time to get up to 6th for their own RWC. They MUST make a move now. They must beat Wales and they really must beat Scotland to gain points and take points off them. Could they surprise England or Ireland? England may be the better bet but Schmidt knows Ireland so well having masterminded their downfall in France.

Another one to watch is Italy V Argentina. Italy are ambitious and they will want to start pushing the likes of Argentina. If they win this they are still in the hunt. Well worth a watch either way.


Top4: I think the top 6 will be seeded, all the way through from the draw. If thats the case then the top 4 will be seeded to avoid each other until the semi. Good for more certainty around ticket sales etc. That's a possible reason why England want in there. You're not in there you are hitting a top 4 team in a QF. That's an extra 50:50 match you can do without and avoid by being top 4.


Lets look at what Seeding bands might look like with todays rankings:


Seeding Band 1

IRE/SA/NZ/FRA/ENG/ARG

Seeding Band 2

SCO/ITA/AUS/FIJ/WAL/GEO


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: FIJI

1/8 final opponent GEORGIA

Prognosis: advance to 1/4 and potentially beyond


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if NOT in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: SOUTH AFRICA

1/8 final opponent NEW ZEALAND

Prognosis: You know the prognosis


I am pretty sure this is not lost on Joe Schmidt?


Keep in mind when enjoying the matches.

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G
GS 1 hour ago
Are the All Blacks doomed to a 70% flatline?

The key is realising this AB side is not what they are now but what they will be in 2025/26.


You can already see a Power bench forming, and I would highlight that people watch the AB XV game vs Munster and watch Fabian Holland - he, in the next 24 months, will be WC and bring some huge physicality to the team.


Then, aligned with Peter Lakai, probably at 7, another WC talent, the AB pack by 2026 will probably both be starting and on the bench - be rated as No 1 or 2 packs in the world.


Then, there is the usual WC talent around the backline, and the missing link is Mo'unga. Unlike in last year's WC, the coming forward pack for the ABs, is similar to the Bok pack, It will be packed full of power, and the key to this is a realitively young pack.


So I think we will lose to Ireland and France in the coming weeks, but watch out as this pack builds into - I mean, look at the tight five and loose forwards that are coming for the ABs - De Groot, Lomax, Williams, Tosi, Taylor, Ofa T, Samson T, Aumua, Patrick T, Barrett, Vai, Fabian H, Setiti, Lakai, Savea, Frizzell (understand they are attempting to get him and Mo'unga back), Blackadder, Papalii and bar Barrett, Savea, Patrick T, Taylor - pretty young in international terms.


Huge front row starting and on bench, Power locks and usual class in loose forwards - only missing ingredient is a WC 10 and with Mo'unga back probably in 2026, these ABs are trending in a very healthy direction.

89 Go to comments
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