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Number-crunching the final weekend of the tight Top 14

Toulon contracted young Italian international Edoardo Padovani in June

As the Top 14 season enters its final week, the playoff permutations are so complex they would have Pierre de Fermat, of brain-munching theorem fame, reaching for the headache tablets. James Harrington has done the maths, so you don’t have to.

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It’s safe to assume that, with one round of the regular Top 14 season remaining, five teams have booked their place in the end-of-season playoffs.

But the competition is so tight that there’s only one dead-rubber match – 12th-placed Toulouse vs already-relegated Bayonne – in the final seven fixtures.

This season’s surprise package, La Rochelle, have a semi-final berth in the bag. Clermont and Montpellier are fighting it out for a bye week in the playoffs, safe in the knowledge that whoever misses out has the luxury of a home quarter-final.

But second-placed Clermont, who have one eye on next weekend’s Champions Cup final, cannot afford a slip-up against the league leaders. Montpellier are chasing hard, and would leapfrog into second – with its quarterfinal bye-week bonus – if Clermont mess up at home this weekend.

Toulon, in fourth, are looking to hold off the challenge of fifth-placed Castres for the still-very-much-at-stake second home quarterfinal.

Technically, the latter’s playoff place is not yet assured, but denying it involves the sort of maths that suggests time travel is possible … and nearest rivals Racing and Stade overturning a 150-plus points difference deficit.

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To all intents and purposes, then, there is one available playoff place – which comes with an automatic Champions Cup slot. Six teams could claim it at the death. Here’s how:

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Racing 92 (current position: 6th, 58pts)

Final match: Home vs Bordeaux

Position is nine-tenths of the law – and Racing hold on to that all-important sixth place. They are the only side whose future is entirely in their hands. But it’s close. A bonus-point win over Bordeaux guarantees the defending Top 14 champions are in the playoffs no matter what anyone else does. A win without a try-scoring bonus would be enough if either Stade or Pau fail to pick up bonus-point wins. Even a draw would be fine, if Stade or Pau do not win – and Lyon fail to pick up a bonus-point win at Grenoble.

Stade Francais (current position: 7th, 58pts)

Final match: Away vs Montpellier

Stade need to win. A bonus point would be useful, too. Five points from their final match of the season would mean Racing would have to match Stade’s points tally to hold on to sixth. A four-point win would only be good enough if Racing cannot match the result. But winning could be a problem for Stade. They are at Montpellier, who have compelling reasons of their own to win big.

Pau (current position: 8th, 57pts)

Final match: Away vs Toulon

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An admittedly unlikely win at Toulon would be good enough for Pau, if neither Racing or Stade win. If that does happen, the plucky side from southwest France need a bonus point win. And if the two capital sides pick up a five-point win, it’s all over.

Lyon (current position: 9th, 55pts)

Final match: Away vs Grenoble

Okay, now it gets complicated. Lyon will leap up to sixth in the Top 14 if they hammer already-relegated near-rivals Grenoble and pick up a try-scoring bonus, Racing and Pau fail to win, and Stade lose at Montpellier. They could also sneak in if they pick up a no-bonus win at Grenoble, Racing and Stade lose, Pau do no better than draw and Brive beat Castres without a bonus point. Got that?

Brive (current position: 10th, 54pts)

Final match: Home vs Castres Olympique

Brive need to beat Castres – with or without a try-scoring bonus – and hope that Racing 92 and Stade Francais lose by more than five, Pau do not win at Toulon, and Lyon don’t hammer Grenoble away.

Bordeaux (current position: 11th, 53pts)

Final match: Away v Racing 92

First things first: Bordeaux will be out of the reckoning with anything less than a five-pointer at Racing 92. Then, they need to hope that Racing and Stade lose by more than five points; Lyon don’t win; Brive don’t match them with a five-pointer against Castres; and Pau come away from Toulon with no more than a losing bonus point.

Watch every game of the Top 14 streaming live on rugbypass.com, home of the best online rugby coverage including news, highlights, previews & reviews, live scores, and more!

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O
Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 3 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
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