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Overrated unbeaten runs, different agendas and anxious waits... the fall-out from England vs Wales

Wales' Alun Wyn Jones leads his team off the field following defeat in the 2019 Quilter International match against England (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

So, to make sense of it all. Twickenham on Sunday provided a compelling pre-World Cup ding-dong between two sides who daren’t fail, for risk of acute Japanese indigestion.

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First blood went to England who deserved their 33-19 win. After such a reality check, Welsh fans of a nervous disposition will naturally be hovering over the panic button, but they need reminding this incident-laden contest in the home of English rugby is only half-finished because these two will go toe-to-toe again next Saturday at an intemperate, baying Principality Stadium. So what to take from the phoney war in London?

DIFFERENT AGENDAS

For a clutch of England squad members it was a case of now or never. They simply had to perform. In a classic case of handing your homework in early Eddie Jones trims his squad on Monday, weeks in advance of the official World Rugby deadline.

Whether that is the most efficient strategy, with three warm-up games to come, only time will tell. Warren Gatland was quick to scoff but as English players did a celebratory lap-of-honour in front of 81,000 fans and 007 (okay, Daniel Craig), it seemed like Jones’ roll of the dice had paid off.

Lewis Ludlum, Anthony Watson and Willi Heinz all pressed their claims. The momentum, as Alun Wyn Jones attested, was with England. For Wales, with just over three weeks to their squad announcement, the motivation was different – to come fully-loaded, claim the world No1 spot and maintain their unbeaten run.

Both dashed accolades were downplayed by Warren Gatland afterwards who didn’t look too disconsolate. End up on the wrong scoreline next weekend and the furrowed brows might be more pronounced.

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AN ANXIOUS WAIT

As a fan, family member or coach, you will spend the next month stomach knotted with a mix of trepidation and anticipation. Collisions between 120kg men are always going to come with a risk of injury and so it proved.

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When Tom Curry, the great white hope of English rugby, went down nursing his shoulder to depart the whole of Twickenham held its collective breath– ‘an AC joint, nothing to worry about,” quipped Jones, almost-convincingly.

Ten minutes later, it was Gareth Anscombe, having skipped down the right flank with such alacrity from Jonathan Joseph, who had to be helped from the field by the Wales physios. He reappeared to watch the second-half on crutches and will have a scan on suspected ligament damage to his knee.

It would be a savage blow for Wales to lose a player with such natural gifts. Yes, rugby fans know economic bottoms lines have to be met in order to prop up a game not exactly overflowing with cash, but it is a human tragedy to see players who have sweated blood and tears all summer left a hospital appointment away from missing the world’s greatest tournament. All the luck in the world to the both of them.

WALES WERE RING RUSTY – PERIOD

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Skipper Jones, who broke Wales’ all-time cap record at Twickenham, isn’t one for excuses and flatly refused to blame a lack of finesse for their torpor at the start of each half, but there was no disguising their execution was less than perfect.

Passes went astray, touch finders were missed and lineouts overthrown. It made a nonsense of the pre-match chat that a hopelessly inexperienced England side would be steamrollered by a well-oiled Welsh machine.

Within the first 15 minutes,  pre-match predictions were spiked as England bolted out of the traps to score two big tries from two big men, Billy Vunipola and Joe Cokanasiga.

For periods, it was as if Wales’ Grand Slam heroics had been frozen in time and the squad had been cast back to that miserable first 40 minutes in Paris when the ball was auditioning for a Dove advert.

It was frustrating for Gatland, who could not have been blamed for snapping a few pencils. The pièce de résistance was an overthrow on the cusp of half-time when the mechanics of a lineout between two of Wales’ most dependable cogs, Jones and Ken Owens, went awry and the ball dropped into Luke Cowan-Dickie’s mitts for him to canter over the whitewash like he had won the lottery. The upside, Gatland mused, was that these were fixable mistakes.

Jonathan Davies breaks
Wales’ Jonathan Davies tries to evade the tackle of England’s George Ford (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

REASONS FOR CHEER

Despite Wales’ teething troubles, there was enough promise to temper a national meltdown. There weren’t, for instance, the parallels that saw a much heralded Ireland side, dismantled by England in the first game of the Six Nations.

Wales contested and left several scores out on the field. Jonathan Davies ran with purpose and guile in midfield for 94 metres, splattering George Ford into the Twickenham turf with a trademark fend, and Gareth Davies, despite a chargedown and some errant passing, ran in one of the finest Welsh scores at Twickenham with a jet-heeled break down the blindside that left Vunipola and Elliot Daly caught in his tailwinds.

George North and Liam Williams also prospered in the backfield, running the ball back with interest. It wasn’t a noteworthy day for the front five, but in the back row, Aaron Wainwright snapped at English heels in a Dan Lydiate-esque manner with 20 tackles. It was also heartening to see Aaron Shingler return to action after a year lay-off. These were crumbs of comfort to take into their next Test week.

UNBEATEN RUNS ARE OVERRATED

There is a train of thought among Welsh pessimists – I’m a paid-up member – that Wales heading into a World Cup unbeaten on the back of 18 wins would have been ominous. After all, who can forget the squall of Dublin when Ireland arrested England’s unbeaten run in 2017?

England boss Jones once told this writer that with every win you are statistically closer to a loss, so if you want to lose a game, the World Cup warm-ups is the place to do it, not knockout rugby in Japan.

If history is anything to go by, these games tell you very little about the World Cup form book. When Wales lost 23-19 to England in 2011 at Twickenham, one side skipped all the way to the World Cup semi-finals and it wasn’t England, who departed the tournament in a dwarf-tossing pickle. Reading too much into these results is a fool’s errand.

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RANKINGS – DO THEY REALLY MATTER?

When World Rugby slip a few permutations to an expectant rugby public about how a nation can push up or down the rankings with a win at the weekend, it’s usually just a chance for WhatsApp bragging rights, but it means diddly-squat in reality – unless it’s before a World Cup draw.

Wales were the world’s best team for 24 hours, despite not beating New Zealand for 66 years, but if they are poleaxed by Fiji and Australia, that accolade would ring mighty hollow.

Gatland himself said would have been a ‘nice to be No1′ but added that the only true measure of being the best in the world was lifting the William Webb Ellis trophy on November 2 in Yokohama. It was hard to disagree. Onto Cardiff.

WATCH: RugbyPass employee of the month runner-up Sam Smith is here again with the latest trends in rugby

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J
JW 2 hours ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

Like I've said before about your idea (actually it might have been something to do with mine, I can't remember), I like that teams will a small sustainable league focus can gain the reward of more consistent CC involvement. I'd really like the most consistent option available.


Thing is, I think rugby can do better than footballs version. I think for instance I wanted everyone in it to think they can win it, where you're talking about trying to make so the worst teams in it are not giving up when they are so far off the pace that we get really bad scorelines (when that and giving up to concentrate on the league is happening together). I know it's not realistic to think those same exact teams are going to be competitive with a different model but I am inclined to think more competitive teams make it in with another modem. It's a catch 22 of course, you want teams to fight to be there next year, but they don't want to be there next year when theres less interest in it because the results are less interesting than league ones. If you ensure the best 20 possible make it somehow (say currently) each year they quickly change focus when things aren't going well enough and again interest dies. Will you're approach gradually work overtime? With the approach of the French league were a top 6 mega rich Premier League type club system might develop, maybe it will? But what of a model like Englands were its fairly competitive top 8 but orders or performances can jump around quite easily one year to the next? If the England sides are strong comparatively to the rest do they still remain in EPCR despite not consistently dominating in their own league?


So I really like that you could have a way to remedy that, but personally I would want my model to not need that crutch. Some of this is the same problem that football has. I really like the landscape in both the URC and Prem, but Ireland with Leinster specifically, and France, are a problem IMO. In football this has turned CL pool stages in to simply cash cow fixtures for the also ran countries teams who just want to have a Real Madrid or ManC to lose to in their pool for that bumper revenue hit. It's always been a comp that had suffered for real interest until the knockouts as well (they might have changed it in recent years?).


You've got some great principles but I'm not sure it's going to deliver on that hard hitting impact right from the start without the best teams playing in it. I think you might need to think about the most minimal requirement/way/performance, a team needs to execute to stay in the Champions Cup as I was having some thougt about that earlier and had some theory I can't remember. First they could get entry by being a losing quarter finalist in the challenge, then putting all their eggs in the Champions pool play bucket in order to never finish last in their pool, all the while showing the same indifference to their league some show to EPCR rugby now, just to remain in champions. You extrapolate that out and is there ever likely to be more change to the champions cup that the bottom four sides rotate out each year for the 4 challenge teams? Are the leagues ever likely to have the sort of 'flux' required to see some variation? Even a good one like Englands.


I'd love to have a table at hand were you can see all the outcomes, and know how likely any of your top 12 teams are going break into Champions rubyg on th back it it are?

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f
fl 5 hours ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

"Right, so even if they were the 4 worst teams in Champions Cup, you'd still have them back by default?"

I think (i) this would literally never happen, (ii) it technically couldn't quite happen, given at least 1 team would qualify via the challenge cup, so if the actual worst team in the CC qualified it would have to be because they did really well after being knocked down to the challenge cup.

But the 13th-15th teams could qualify and to be fair I didn't think about this as a possibility. I don't think a team should be able to qualify via the Champions Cup if they finish last in their group.


Overall though I like my idea best because my thinking is, each league should get a few qualification spots, and then the rest of the spots should go to the next best teams who have proven an ability to be competitive in the champions cup. The elite French clubs generally make up the bulk of the semi-final spots, but that doesn't (necessarily) mean that the 5th-8th best French clubs would be competitive in a slimmed down champions cup. The CC is always going to be really great competition from the semis onwards, but the issue is that there are some pretty poor showings in the earlier rounds. Reducing the number of teams would help a little bit, but we could improve things further by (i) ensuring that the on-paper "worst" teams in the competition have a track record of performing well in the CC, and (ii) by incentivising teams to prioritise the competition. Teams that have a chance to win the whole thing will always be incentivised to do that, but my system would incentivise teams with no chance of making the final to at least try to win a few group stage matches.


"I'm afraid to say"

Its christmas time; there's no need to be afraid!

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