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Stats wizard Paul Neazor informed us earlier this week that he has correctly picked 14/17 winners through the first two rounds of Super Rugby – 14/15 if you ignore his complete inability to predict the Blues. “Not to blow my own trumpet,” he emailed from his state-of-the-art stats bunker, but it was already too late. We had to shake him down for his picks for this weekend.
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Blues vs Hurricanes
There are two things that make me lean towards the Blues here: the team defence has been really hard to break down, especially in the second half despite often being under urgent pressure, and the sheer physical size and speed of the Blues backs. I reckon the home team will be a little better on the day.
Pick: Blues (12 and under) [Please note: Paul is 0-2 picking the Blues this season, so the Hurricanes will almost definitely win]
Force vs Brumbies
Impossible to see anything other than a solid Brumbies win here.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)
Highlanders vs Lions
This should be the match of the round – the dark horse Lions squaring off against the defending champs. If there’s one factor that may be decisive, it’s understanding how to play under the Dunedin roof and the home side obviously has that edge. Add Jamie Joseph’s substitution plan – get them all in there with enough time to get up to game speed, and then finish over the top – and the Highlanders should have just enough to get up by one score in a high-scoring match.
Pick: Highlanders (12 and under)
Rebels vs Reds
The Rebels’ body clocks will still be spinning in three different directions after flying to South Africa and back in the last week. They’re lucky to be at home to the Reds, who would be just about everyone’s first choice to play under such circumstances. The Rebels have played well in patches during both their matches, and should manage to get the points this week.
Pick: Rebels (12 and under)
Sunwolves vs Cheetahs
If the forecast holds, conditions in Singapore will be similar to playing in Brisbane or Durban on a particularly unpleasant day for footy – 32 degrees, with electrical storms and rain. Good luck to both teams trying to control the ball in that. This could be a scrappy affair, but I’m still picking the Cheetahs to win by plenty.
Pick: Cheetahs (13 and over)
Kings vs Chiefs
It’s almost impossible to underestimate the Kings, who simply aren’t very good, and the Chiefs should be in the mood to put them to the sword after a frustrating loss last weekend. The visitors have scored four tries in each match so far (no bonus points though), so should have little trouble opening up what is one of the leakiest defences in the whole competition.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)
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Stormers vs Sharks
Most will see this match as the early pointer towards which of these teams will end up as the top South African contender, although I fancy the Lions may yet have a bit to say about that. I’m not expecting an open or even greatly entertaining game, but I’m expecting another win for the Stormers at the end of it.
Pick: Stormers (12 and under)
