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Paul the Super Rugby Oracle's Round 3 Tips – Should We Stick With The Lions?

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Stats wizard Paul Neazor informed us earlier this week that he has correctly picked 14/17 winners through the first two rounds of Super Rugby – 14/15 if you ignore his complete inability to predict the Blues. “Not to blow my own trumpet,” he emailed from his state-of-the-art stats bunker, but it was already too late. We had to shake him down for his picks for this weekend.

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Blues vs Hurricanes
There are two things that make me lean towards the Blues here: the team defence has been really hard to break down, especially in the second half despite often being under urgent pressure, and the sheer physical size and speed of the Blues backs. I reckon the home team will be a little better on the day.
Pick: Blues (12 and under) [Please note: Paul is 0-2 picking the Blues this season, so the Hurricanes will almost definitely win]

Force vs Brumbies
Impossible to see anything other than a solid Brumbies win here.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)

Highlanders vs Lions
This should be the match of the round – the dark horse Lions squaring off against the defending champs. If there’s one factor that may be decisive, it’s understanding how to play under the Dunedin roof and the home side obviously has that edge. Add Jamie Joseph’s substitution plan – get them all in there with enough time to get up to game speed, and then finish over the top – and the Highlanders should have just enough to get up by one score in a high-scoring match.
Pick: Highlanders (12 and under)

Rebels vs Reds
The Rebels’ body clocks will still be spinning in three different directions after flying to South Africa and back in the last week. They’re lucky to be at home to the Reds, who would be just about everyone’s first choice to play under such circumstances. The Rebels have played well in patches during both their matches, and should manage to get the points this week.
Pick: Rebels (12 and under)

Sunwolves vs Cheetahs
If the forecast holds, conditions in Singapore will be similar to playing in Brisbane or Durban on a particularly unpleasant day for footy – 32 degrees, with electrical storms and rain. Good luck to both teams trying to control the ball in that. This could be a scrappy affair, but I’m still picking the Cheetahs to win by plenty.
Pick: Cheetahs (13 and over)

Kings vs Chiefs
It’s almost impossible to underestimate the Kings, who simply aren’t very good, and the Chiefs should be in the mood to put them to the sword after a frustrating loss last weekend. The visitors have scored four tries in each match so far (no bonus points though), so should have little trouble opening up what is one of the leakiest defences in the whole competition.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)

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Stormers vs Sharks
Most will see this match as the early pointer towards which of these teams will end up as the top South African contender, although I fancy the Lions may yet have a bit to say about that. I’m not expecting an open or even greatly entertaining game, but I’m expecting another win for the Stormers at the end of it.
Pick: Stormers (12 and under)

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J
JW 5 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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