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Pre-match analysis - Italy vs Wales

Wales, seen here lining up before last November's match versus Scotland, have chosen a much changed team to face Italy (Getty Images)

Wales travel to Rome to face Italy boasting a very different look to the team that walked out at the Stade de France on the opening night of the 2019 Six Nations.

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Coach Warren Gatland has rung the changes – 10 personnel and one positional – but not because of his side’s woeful first-half showing in Paris.

Instead of returning to Cardiff following their 24-19 comeback win over France, Wales have spent the week training on the Cote d’Azur. Gatland wanted to replicate the kind of turnaround the squad will face at the Rugby World Cup in September and has therefore shuffled his pack, providing opportunities for fringe players to book their flights to Japan.

Following a comprehensive defeat to Scotland in Edinburgh in week one, Italy will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. Can they cause an upset and secure a first win over Wales since Gatland took charge 11 years ago?

Coaches

Italy coach Conor O’Shea insisted in the wake of defeat at Murrayfield last weekend that his side could find the level required to beat Wales on Saturday. “[It is] a fight not many people think we can win,” he said, “but we will.”

O’Shea was forced to field questions about his future at last month’s Six Nations launch following newspaper reports in France that the Italian Rugby Federation (FIR) were sounding out potential successors to the Irishman.

In his two-and-half years in charge, South Africa, Georgia, Fiji and Japan have all been beaten but victories have been few and far between. In two matches against Wales under O’Shea, Italy have lost both by an aggregate score of 71-21.

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It is a measure of how confident his opposite number feels heading into the match that he has made so many changes to the team that came from behind to beat France in Paris.

Of course, Gatland’s decision to leave Alun Wyn Jones, Ross Moriarty and Gareth Davies on the bench – and Ken Owens, Justin Tipuric and George North in the stands – highlights the disparity in resources available to each coach.

Turning the Azzurri into a competitive force in the Six Nations is something that will take years. O’Shea is all too aware of that, but he will hope his players can start in Rome on Saturday where they left off at Murrayfield.

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The players

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Leonardo Ghiraldini (69) vs Elliot Dee (67)

With Ken Owens given a week off following his exertions in Paris, Dee has an opportunity to rubber-stamp his standing as Wales’ number two hooker. Opposite him on Saturday is Ghiraldini, a centurion who will embody the hosts’ physical approach. According to the RPI, Dee has a greater influence on games (85-69) and is a better scrummager (69-65) while providing a jackal threat (70-29) that Ghiraldini, 10 years his senior, does not.

Sergio Parisse (68) vs Josh Navidi (79)

Gatland has decided to take a look at Navidi at number eight in Rome, even though the Wales back row is more comfortable on the side of the scrum than at the base of it. It’s a position the Cardiff player has filled in the past and his versatility could yet prove vital at the World Cup. Navidi, though, does not bring the physicality of Moriarty, Taulupe Faletau or Seb Davies to the role and that is something Parisse and Italy will hope to exploit. Although now 35, Parisse remains a carrying threat and a very tough opponent for a non-specialist number eight.

Italy captain Sergio Parisse

Tommaso Allan (60) vs Dan Biggar (79)

It should be something of a clash of styles at 10 in the Stadio Olimpico. Allan has matured since he was first handed the keys to the Azzurri attack as a 20-year-old, but question marks remain at Test level – especially concerning his goal kicking. No such worries surround Biggar, who in his new role as a ‘finisher’ for Wales, has come off the bench to kick his country to victory over Australia, South Africa and France in recent months. Selected to start on Saturday he should be relied upon to keep Wales playing in the right areas.

Michele Campagnaro (61) vs Jonathan Davies (76)

It’s a big weekend for Scarlets centre Davies, who takes the captaincy on his 70th Wales appearance. Injuries ahead of this season have impacted on Davies’ RPI rating but according to the rankings he has more of an impact on games than Campagnaro, with his influence rating of 75 four more than his opposite number. Campagnaro’s ability to play on the wing perhaps accounts for his attack score of 82, which is 11 more than Davies. At his best the Welshman is one of the best centres in the world, and he could well make a mockery of his ranking on Saturday.

Key battlegrounds

The breakdown is such a key facet of Wales’ game and despite all the changes, Gatland has once again picked a team that will be confident of dominating that area.

Navidi, Aaron Wainwright and Thomas Young (combined jackal RPI – 244) are all adept over the ball In a mobile back row and will keep Parisse, Sebastian Negri and Braam Steyn incredibly busy.

Wales’ Josh Navidi.

Negri made a mammoth 18 tackles at Murrayfield last weekend, and if Italy are going to get anything out of this contest then he will need to do similar again.

There will be no let-up when the Azzurri have the ball, though, with the Welsh back row having a combined tackle turnover RPI of 255.

Should Wales secure front-foot ball then they will hope Biggar can deliver a composed performance at 10. His half-back partner in Rome will be Aled Davies, who in the eyes of the RPI, is more than a safe pair of hands.

He has an influence rank of 83, pass completion of 87 and 84 for territorial kick meters. Parisse and co must hound and harass Davies and Biggar if Wales are to be upset.

Conclusion

Wales were rocked during the first-half in Paris last Friday, but it says a lot about the resolve the squad possesses that they were able to rebound from such an abject 40-minute display. They have been here before and that performance will have been parked during the warm-weather training week in Nice.

Gatland has rung the changes for Rome but there are no worries about those players coming in, such is the strength of the group. Instead a chance to put a hand up for World Cup selection should galvanise those who aren’t regulars. If it doesn’t then Jones, Moriarty, Davies, Gareth Anscombe and Hallam Amos are all ready and waiting on the bench.

Italy will want to pick up where they left off in Edinburgh but that three-try salvo came when their hosts were down to 14 men and had a bonus-point already tucked safely into their back pocket.

Expect the Azzurri to make life difficult for Wales in the first half, but the visitors will back their superior fitness and skill set to show as the match wears on.

Verdict: Wales to win with a bonus point

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O
Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 2 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
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