Predicting Andy Farrell's 33-man Ireland Rugby World Cup squad

As the Rugby World Cup approaches head coaches across the globe are sharpening their pencils and their axes, as they go about the ruthless business of selecting a 33-man squad to travel to France.

While world no.1s Ireland may have one of the most settled squads going, Andy Farrell will be faced with confronting questions and the inevitable uncomfortable conversations with disappointed players as he whittles his squad down to 33 men from 42.

While there are still two Summer Nations Series warm-up games against England and Samoa in which Farrell can offer final auditions for players, here we’ll try to predict what Farrell’s likely final travelling party will look like.

With an increase of two players from previous World Cup squads, Farrell will likely use the luxury to pick three scrum halves and six props.

With this in mind, it’s unlikely Farrell will drift from tried and tested trio of Jamieson Gibson-Park, Conor Murray and Munster’s tyro Craig Casey. Connacht’s Caolin Blade, who’s currently part of the training squad, misses out here.

If Farrell does go with six props as we predict, he’s unlikely to deviate from his Six Nations propping roster which includes Andrew Porter, Tadhg Furlong, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Tom O’Toole and David Kilcoyne.

At hooker there is a clear daylight between Dan Sheehan and Ronan Kelleher and the rest, with it coming down to a shootout between fellow Ulster men Rob Herring and try-scoring rookie Tom Stewart. Herring’s experience will likely trump the impressive Stewart’s late bolt for the plane.

The second row and back row are where things start to get interesting. With Tadhg Beirne and Ryan Baird both able to cover lock and six, it gives Farrell plenty of wriggle room. The only bone of contention here is whether he makes room for Leinster bolter Joe McCarthy, who has impressed with the province this season but who has precious little Test experience with just two test caps to his name off the bench.

There is also Kieran Treadwell to consider, although the Ulsterman made just one appearance during Guinness Six Nations this year, off the bench against England. While he’s been used sparsely down the years, five of the six matches he has featured in have been against South Africa, New Zealand or England.

So if Farrell goes for one of McCarthy or Treadwell, then he might be odds on to take the versatile and highly rated Baird as a nominal back row, which would see the perennially unlucky Gavin Coombes and Connacht’s Cian Prendergast missing out. Coombes, who’s more of specialist No.8 although has covered six and even second row in the URC, may become the sacrificial lamb here, with the likes of Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan, Caelan Doris and Peter O’Mahoney effectively undroppable.

It’s also tough on Prendergast, who was a standout from the bench against Italy last weekend.

If Farrell does select Baird as a second row and selects him ahead of McCarthy, then it does open up room for Prendergast or Coombes to go. With South Africa on the menu, the added heft of McCarthy may push Farrell towards the 6’6 Baird as a six.

The apparent fall from grace of former second fiddle Joey Carbery makes the flyhalf slot relatively straightforward with Johnny Sexton, Ross Byrne and Jack Crowley – who can cover centre in a pinch – the obvious three stand-off selections.

Three of the centres selections are no-brainers, with the only question being whether or not Ciaran Frawley can make a case to be included ahead of Ulster’s Stuart McCloskey in the centre or Keith Earls amongst the outside backs.

Frawley certainly offers something different to his fellow centres; he can kick and has the ability to cover 10 and 15, making him an ideal candidate for the 23 spot on a six-two split-bench, or as a starter at centre against the likes of pool-stage opponents Romania and Tonga, allowing him to scoot across to centre or fullback if needed.

It could come down to whether or not Ireland management views Frawley more as a flyhalf or a centre. He’s started 67 per cent of matches to date in the midfield, with 28 per cent coming at ten and just six per cent at fullback, although he came on at fullback against Italy last weekend in Dublin.

If he is taken primarily as a centre, it’ll be hard lines for McCloskey, the Bangor Bulldozer, who has done little wrong in green.

Another question for Irish management is if they are keen on four specialist centres, does the multi-tool Frawley then replace specialist winger Keith Earls – who hasn’t played centre for Ireland in years and who has played just 13 per cent of his rugby at 13 – in the outside backs.

The fact that other head coaches are only taking two flyhalves to the tournament and that Jack Crowley and Jimmy O’Brien also offer cover in the centre and at fullback, where both have started at the provincial level, also plays against the need for Frawley’s versatility.

Although Sexton will obviously get game time against Romania and Tonga due to his warm-up ban, all things being equal in the likely pool deciders against the Boks and Scotland, Sexton starts with Byrne on the bench at 22. Then the question becomes who’s the best number 23: specialist centre Aki, or the catch-all utilities like O’Brien or Frawley.

What’s also clear is that there will be more rest periods at this Rugby World Cup than at any other previous iteration. Ireland will have a full two weeks between playing South Africa and Scotland on the 7th of October, meaning player fatigue due to a short turnaround time won’t be an issue towards the end of the pool stage.

The selection of Jacob Stockdale versus Earls is another battle the Munster man faces.

Stockdale was very busy against Italy in the opening warm-up in Dublin last weekend, but a particularly conspicuous missed tackle on Lorenzo Pani will have badly damaged his cause. There have always been niggling question marks around Stockdale’s defence and his poor attempt to stop the smaller man will only reinforce the unwanted ‘poor defender’ tag, something that Farrell as a former defence coach will be acutely aware of.

Farrell is also a known fan of Earls and his 99 caps for Ireland bring with it a wealth of experience. Barring something happening in the next two warm-ups, we predict Farrell will go with the Moyross native and his proven finishing abilities.

Elsewhere in the outside backs, Munster winger Calvin Nash and Leinster’s Jordan Larmour seem up against it in trying to break into the outside backs department, where we reckon the aforementioned Earls, Mack Hansen, James Lowe, Hugo Keenan, Jimmy O’Brien will get the nod.

Leinster’s Jamie Osborne deserves a mention here, albeit this World Cup might have come a little early for the 21-year-old, who is yet to make his Ireland debut.

Here’s our prediction for the Ireland 33-man squad.

Hookers: Dan Sheehan, Ronan Kelleher, Rob Herring

Props: Andrew Porter, Tadhg Furlong, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Tom O’Toole, David Kilcoyne

Second rows: James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Tadgh Beirne, Joe McCarthy

Back rows: Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan, Caelan Doris, Peter O’Mahoney, Ryan Baird

Scrumhavles: Conor Murray, Jamieson Gibson-Park, Craig Casey

Flyhavles: Johnny Sexton, Ross Byrne, Jack Crowley

Centres: Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Ciaran Frawley

Outside backs: Mack Hansen, James Lowe, Hugo Keenan, Keith Earls, Jimmy O’Brien