Premiership final weekend permutations

Both home semi-finals are still up for grabs, as is the last automatic Champions Cup slot. James Harrington has worked out who needs to do what

There are just six fixtures left to decide the final shape of the English Premiership table – and, eight months after the first match kicked off, there’s still plenty at stake.

The top four is just about decided. Leicester, basically, need a point to confirm the final spot in the play-off semi-finals. But where they will end up and who they will play in their semi-final is far from decided, with the runaway group of Wasps, Exeter and Saracens all still very much vying for top spot.

Then there is the final Champions Cup place – and, confusingly, the Champions Cup play-off berth. Yes, there’s one of those, too.

So, here we go with the permutations for those teams still in with a shout of finishing in the all-important top six (or seven):

Wasps (current position: 1st – 79pts)

Final match: Home vs Saracens

Wasps – and opponents Saracens – have already booked a place in the Premiership play-offs. This match is all about home advantage in the semi-finals. A win or a draw will be good enough for the hosts – as long as they match or better Exeter’s result. If the Chiefs get a try-scoring bonus in victory and Wasps don’t, then the Coventry-based side still have a home semi to look forward to … it will just be  against Saracens. But if Wasps lose, and Exeter get at least a draw, then Dai Young’s side will finish third, and will face an away match in the last four.

Exeter Chiefs (current position: 2nd – 79pts)

Final match: Away vs Gloucester

Exeter have picked up maximum points from their past seven Premiership outings – and it’s hard to see Gloucester ending that particular run. So, assuming Exeter enjoy another five-point win, they will force Wasps to win with a try-scoring bonus against Saracens. Even a four-point win will be plenty to ensure a home semi-final, regardless of what happens at the Ricoh. However, should they lose, and Sarries beat Wasps, the Chiefs will finish third and will have to travel for their last-four match in the play-offs.

Saracens (current position 3rd – 77pts)

Final match: Away vs Wasps

Saracens have one eye firmly on next week’s Champions Cup final in Edinburgh, and have named a much-changed side from the one that played last weekend, which suggests they are not too bothered about being at home or away in the play-offs. Decide for yourself if that’s confidence or arrogance. The fact is it’s a modified all-or-not-quite-all scenario for the Mark McCall’s men. Should Exeter slip up badly at Sandy Park, which is unlikely, Sarries will climb to second if they pick up two bonus points in defeat here. That’s home semi-final country. Either way, they’re in the semi-finals.

Leicester Tigers (current position 4th – 62pts)

Final match: Away vs Worcester Warriors

One point is enough for Leicester to ensure a fourth-place finish – and a semi-final trip to whichever side finishes top of the table. Unless, that is, Bath pick up a five-point win at Sale, and overturn a 68-point deficit in the process.

Bath (current position 5th – 58pts)

Final match: Away vs Sale

Champions Cup place secured, Bath are chasing the unlikely prospect of finishing in the top four. They have to run up a monster total at the AJ Bell and hope Worcester do them a big favour against Leicester at Sixways. Unlikely things have happened in this Premiership season. Just not this unlikely.

Harlequins (current position 6th – 51pts)

Final match: Away vs Northampton Saints

Courtesy of their tour-de-force performance at home against Wasps last time out, Quins have one hand on sixth place – and the automatic Champions League slot that comes with it. A win or draw is good enough. Thanks to their better win record this season, even defeat at Franklin’s Gardens isn’t the end of the world, as long as the Londoners pick up a bonus point. That said, they will need two bonus points if Northampton score four tries in victory.

Northampton Saints (current position 7th – 48pts)

Final match: Home vs Harlequins

Win or bust, basically, for Saints (see above). A bonus point would be preferable. Seventh is most likely – and that means a Champions Cup play-off shot, unless Gloucester win the Challenge Cup.

Gloucester (current position 8th – 46pts)

Final match: Home vs Exeter Chiefs

A Gloucester defeat will consign the Cherry-and-Whites to eighth place – BUT they are in the Challenge Cup final. Winning that would give them a play-off route to next season’s Champions Cup. However, should they beat Exeter at Sandy Park, and Northampton lose at home to Harlequins, they will leapfrog the Saints into seventh. And that would give them the same play-off chance.

Newcastle Falcons (current position 9th – 44pts)

Final match: Away vs Bristol

It’s a million-to-one shot, but it just might work. A bonus-point win for Dean Richards’ Falcons at long-relegated Bristol, eight-point-plus defeats for both Northampton and Gloucester would leapfrog the Falcons into seventh. Further heartbreak for the Cherry-and-Whites against Stade Francais in Edinburgh next week would gift that Champions Cup play-off place to the Kingston Park outfit. Nah, even as a million-to-one shot (which, as Terry Pratchett fans know, happen nine times out of 10), that won’t work.

Watch every game of the Lions Tour of NZ streaming live on rugbypass.com, home of the best online rugby coverage including news, highlights, previews & reviews, live scores, and more!