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Premiership Women’s Rugby: How semi-final line-up will be decided
This weekend will be a defining one in the race for the Premiership Women’s Rugby (PWR) top four.
A mouthwatering penultimate round will kick off on Friday night as Harlequins and Bristol Bears do battle under the Twickenham Stoop lights.
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Hosts Quins have qualified for the post-season but need a win to maintain their quest for a home semi-final while their visitors’ play-off hopes are in the last-chance saloon.
On Saturday, fifth-place Exeter Chiefs travel to north London to take on Saracens, currently third, before league leaders Gloucester-Hartpury face Sale Sharks at CorpAcq Stadium.
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With the end of the condensed 2024/25 PWR season in sight, we take a look at the permutations facing each of the top five as they prepare to be whittled down to the final four.
Gloucester-Hartpury (Played 14, 58 points)
The back-to-back defending champions end the regular season with a trip to Sale Sharks on Saturday and a home encounter with second-place Harlequins six days later.
Already through to the play-offs, win both and they will be sure to finish Sean Lynn’s final campaign on top of the regular season standings and with a home semi-final in the bag.
Should Saracens fail to beat Exeter Chiefs with a bonus point earlier on Saturday then a four-try win at Sale would be enough to ensure they are at home in the last four. That outcome would also wrap up top spot if Quins lose at home to Bears on Friday.
If Quins beat Bristol at the Stoop, then the pair’s meeting at Kingsholm on the final day will determine who heads into the play-offs as top seeds.
Harlequins (P14, 55pts)
Ross Chisholm’s surprise package head into the final two weekends three points adrift of Gloucester-Hartpury and with a semi-final place secured.
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They need nine points from their final two regular season matches, at home against Bristol and away to the Circus, to be absolutely sure of a home semi-final.
A bonus-point victory against Bears on Friday would be enough though if Saracens subsequently lose to Exeter on Saturday.
Realistically, Quins will need to beat Bristol and Gloucester-Hartpury to finish the regular season in top spot.
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There is a chance that Quins, Gloucester-Hartpury and Saracens could end the regular season locked on 63 points. In that scenario it would be Quins who take top spot as they would have won the most matches (13).
Saracens (P14, 53pts)
The equation facing Saracens is pretty simple: beat Exeter on Saturday and a place in the play-offs is theirs.
Follow that up with a home win against basement club Sale Sharks on finale Friday and a home semi-final – and potentially top spot – could also be theirs.
Should Quins lose to either Bristol or Gloucester-Hartpury then two victories would be enough to give Alex Austerberry’s side home advantage in the last four.
Were their London rivals to lose both their remaining regular season matches then one win would be enough for Saracens to leapfrog them in the standings.
Saracens can still finish top of the regular season pile, but it is a long shot. They must win both of their matches with a bonus point and hope that the teams above them – Gloucester-Hartpury and Quins – gain no more than four and seven match points respectively from their final two games.
Bristol Bears (P15, 49pts)
There is a scenario in which Bristol can lose to Quins at the Stoop and still qualify for the semi-finals, but that would require Exeter to suffer defeat against both Saracens and Leicester Tigers.
Realistically, Bears need to win on Friday night and hope that Saracens beat Chiefs the following day.
If that were to play out then Dave Ward’s side would be guaranteed their place in the play-offs regardless of Exeter’s result on the final day.
It would get interesting if Bears return home from south-west London with two match points.
Should that transpire then Chiefs would need a victory and a bonus point from their final two regular season matches to leapfrog Bristol into fourth place.
Exeter Chiefs (P14, 46pts)
Whatever happens at the Stoop, Susie Appleby and her Chiefs know that win at both Saracens and Tigers and they are sure to be in the semi-finals.
Lose to Saracens this weekend and they could still make it with a victory in Leicester, as long as the result between Bristol and Quins goes their way on Friday night.
Despite losing five of their last six PWR matches, Exeter are not mathematically out of the running for a home semi-final either.
However, they would need to take the maximum 10 points from their remaining two regular season matches and for Quins and Saracens to lose both of theirs – with the former not registering any bonus points in the process.
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