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Prepare for the Springboks' wheels to fall off
Just what is going on with the Sharks? It’s a question that continues to confound sharper rugby minds than the one expressed in this column. Stone last in the URC with eight defeats from nine matches after home losses to the Lions and Connacht, as well as an embarrassing reverse away to Zebre, even the most loyal supporters must be wondering if things will ever get better down on the east coast.
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Compounding matters is the number of Springboks in their ranks. Eight members of coach John Plumtree’s squad were part of South Africa’s World Cup winning group. Ten more have Test experience. And though some, like the injured Bongi Mbonambi, haven’t featured this season, that glut of rugby know-how would surely have rubbed off by now. Right? Wrong! In fact, there is a strong case to be made that the Sharks’ poor performances are a direct consequence of the ineptitude offered by their Springboks.
Sharks supporters can take solace that their club is not the only one going through this particular challenge. With seven and six players respectively, Saracens and Leicester contributed more men to England’s World Cup squad than any of the other clubs in their league. The two most recent winners of the Premiership are stuck in the bottom half of the table and are facing the possibility of missing out on a semi-final spot.
In France, both Toulouse, in fourth, and La Rochelle, in eighth, have been off the pace in the Top 14. This despite providing over 50% of Le Bleus’ World Cup cohort. They’ve been eclipsed by Racing 92 who, like La Rochelle, have lost both of their games in the Champions Cup. Toulouse at least have managed two wins in Europe, but even their star-studded side is finding it difficult to fight on multiple fronts.
There is no way to draw a direct correlation between a domestic team’s struggles and the number of World Cup veterans they have. This hasn’t proven to be a problem for Leinster who continue to set the pace in the URC and Champions Cup. But they are perhaps the exception that might give credence to a theory that forces us to change the way we engage with the sport.
For now, let’s focus on the South African perspective. These are unprecedented times. Gone are the days of demarcated seasons. Now players are expected to remain fit and motivated all year round. The former might be possible for those blessed with genetic advantages and with privileged access to state of the art resources that help maintain their strength and conditioning, but the latter is virtually impossible.
How can Eben Etzebeth, the Sharks’ most high profile Springbok, be as committed to the cause wearing the club’s black jersey as he did wearing the green and gold of his country? If selected, he’ll play against Oyannax this weekend in the Challenge Cup in what is expected to be at best a half-full Kings Park Stadium. It’s not exactly the New Zealand All Blacks for the Webb Ellis Cup under lights in Paris, is it?
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That may seem obvious but there is a danger that the demanding schedule is leading to mental exhaustion and a state of ennui. Watching the Sharks it is clear that a spark has been missing from some of their big names.
If this is indeed an expected by-product of the demanding fixture list then South African rugby fans need to recalibrate their expectations. Or rather, they need to create a hierarchy of needs. Ask yourselves, South African rugby fans: what do you want from 2024 and beyond?
Do you want your domestic club to clinch a URC title? Would you like the Bulls or Stormers to compete for the Champions Cup in London later in the year? The Cheetahs, Lions and Sharks currently occupy the top two places in their Challenge Cup groups. Would you like to see one of them progress to the final in May?
Or would you prefer to see the Springboks continue to ride that winning wave and claim their first Rugby Championship in a non-World Cup year? Many expert commentators have predicted a lean spell for South Africa as Rassie Erasmus begins a rebuilding project after the double World Cup triumph. Though many stalwarts will remain on board throughout the next cycle, a large chunk will not. The success of South African rugby will be determined by the patience of those who support it.
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Whether or not Erasmus and his team get it is another matter. The X account that goes by Oom Rugby suggested the Springboks ship will be forced to navigate “challenging seas ahead.” When asked if the fans will accept such a bleak future, one that could potentially culminate in an early exit from the 2027 World Cup, Oom Rugby said that “the knives will come out quickly” if the team strings together a series of poor results. But if this is to be expected, is there any way to mitigate the impending shipwreck?
The most obvious solution would be to sacrifice domestic glory, or at least pursue domestic glory by resting Springboks players as much as possible. They could then be wheeled out to maintain their match sharpness or have a tilt in play-off matches. But, if this is indeed the solution, the regular grind ought to be carried out by players on the periphery of Erasmus’ plans.
Or they could follow the likes of Malcolm Marx, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Cheslin Kolbe and five other World Cup winning Boks to Japan. With respect to a league that continues to attract elite talent from around the world, it is a comparatively easier ride. Perhaps it was no coincidence that 40% of the players who contested the World Cup final played their club rugby in Japan.
Erasmus has earned the right to play this how he wants. And of course the franchise coaches have an obligation to win everything they can and that means selecting the best team, filled with their best players, as often as they can. Whether or not these two ambitions can coexist at the same time remains to be seen.
When should we start preparing?
Been waiting a long time to circle back to this utter Bs article.
these Boks are the most average RWC winner’s, ever. Noone will ever remember them/players, except Safas. Kolbe and PSTD aside, Ive forgotten the team already. Rather than ask about the ‘wheels falling off’, ask instead what they need to be ‘great’. If they have an inability to score 1 x try vs 14 men, and prefer to kick away every possession, then the LOTTO winners may have to accept their extreme limitations as a team and hope for more 1pt wins from referees they have historically victimised. They’ll be shit between RWCs yet again.
Remind me when was the last time, that the Sharks didn’t underperform vis-a-vis their paper expectations? Because I’ve been alive longer, than the Sharks franchise, and I don’t remember such time.
It might be, that the Boks’ time at the top of the mountain is done, but it won’t be because the Sharks suck.
The Sharks sucked in 2019, as they did in 2023. As much as it pains me to say that.
The 1990’s. Under Ian Macintosh.
The test season can’t come soon enough.
The boks will be aiming to “peak” to win the Irish series and the RC in my humble opinion. The project has changed. From building a team and squad to win the WC to becoming a team and system that leaves a lasting legacy. Ala the ABs.
And let’s not forget that, not unlike the ABs, there is a Bok brand and commercial side of this that needs the Boks management team to deliver results.
And of course the faithful fans, who will want to see the world no.1 team stay at no. 1. And shut this incessant negative noise up from the die-hard sour pusses.
Sage words.
As Plumtree rightly says, you can buy players but you can’t buy a team. He needs the time to get the culture and playing structures working.
It is taking longer than expected, and I would have hoped for a few more wins along the way, but they have the ingredients, and they will turn the corner.
As to the Boks regressing, IMV this reflects a misunderstanding of Rassie and how he operates. I expect the Boks to raise their game in 2024. Other teams will too, and it will not be easy for the Boks to maintain a high win rate while rotating in some younger players. But I would be shocked if they emerged from this season in a weaker state than they are today.
The sharks have been poor for years. Didn’t hurt the Boks winning 2019 and 2023.
The sharks are an experiment right now. A foreign equity partner, and cash to “buy players”. The boks that have come back to the Sharks couldn’t have been afforded by the other “big” provinces in SA. Stormers are under administration, neither the lions nor the bulls could afford these boks.
So yes there are problems, but they’re not new. And the experiment may not be working, or may turn a corner. Who knows for sure? But the management of the sharks doesn’t have anything to do with the management of the springboks - who have the silverware to prove it.
There was an argument building up to 2023 that “galvanizing” foreign based players meant that the Boks wouldn’t be successful. Now it’s - the franchises are performing poorly, doesn’t bode well for the Boks.
Truth be told these opinions are nothing but opinions. Let’s draw the conclusions in July shall we.
This is not the first time that I complete idiotic statement has been made at rugby pass I'm just not going to follow you anymore
I dont really understand the sentiment behind Springbok doom and gloom. You talk about the Springboks not really making a difference for the Sharks, well Am has been scoring tries, Etzebeth continues to put in big performances in most matches and was man of the match against the Lions. The Sharks are pathetic because they dont play well together, make way too many mistakes and have obviously had some bad juju in recent times. Erasmus does have to rebuild but to suggest that the performances of the sharks might be a predictor for Springbok success is total nonsense.
Yea I think the problem at the sharks is Plumtree. The Bok 33 was in fire at the world cup and those ooayetsbdidn’t suddenly dip.
The Sharks made a massive mistake in bringing back Plumtree. They also had squad issues before him which saw Everett sacked.
There seems to be a culture issue there and it reflects in how Durbanites don’t buy into their team.
Wayne Barnes is marginally behind Nigel Owens as the most prolific executors of WR/IRB's mandate to protect and favour SA rugby. Anybody who has played rugby at a decent competitive level (as I have) knows that many decisions aren’t black and white but what is asked is consistency and the legions of WR that prop SA rugby up to make them seem competitive are guilty of massive inconsistency.
I'm an Englishman and watched pretty much every game that we played against them from the late 60's onwards as well as a lot of the SA games against the better nations (NZ, Australia, France and other UK countries). Rugby was very different then in so many ways most Notably the rules and game plans. I’m not one to watch endless replays of games from a bygone era when everything (including myself) was so very different so pick a game and let’s see what happens.
South Africa looks like a team managed / coached to peak at the right time. If winning the 2027 RWC is the goal, I would expect Rassie to blood some new / younger boks and take some losses. Squad depth is key and a fair few of the bok starters are 30+ so it makes sense. I don’t think that is the same as falling off the cliff.
As for winning the Rugby Championship consistently, I don’t think that happens unless the boks become structurally better than ABs and maintain that consistency. This would require a lot more development in the backs and a more robust domestic union I think.
There was enough gas in the tank for the 2007 boks to go on and achieve great things up to and including a RC and a B&I Lions tour - under de Villiers. Smit and co. Basically said “they coached themselves” under that era.
Similarly, this team has a core group of double World Cup winners - all “over the hill” at 31!
It seems as if only in Europe, where the halo effect is so bright it burns the eyes, can you have legends of the game play until up to 38. In SA they become instantly useless on their 32nd birthday.
I expect this bok side will want to prove the naysayers wrong by not losing an irish series at home and making a strong challenge for the RC. I’m sure if this team can plan to win a world cup over 5 years they can plan to win 4 games, at home, against 2 teams in 2024.
And then roll onto the next challenge in ‘25. And so on and so forth.
I don’t really enjoy reading stories predicting that any team is apparently ‘doomed’, no matter who it is. And this headline seems a bit miserable for a team that just won another RWC. It’s going to be a really interesting year from so many angles - and certainly not just for the Boks. The global player churn continues as usual and there is rebuilding in some way for all teams. I just hope we all get some excellent games and a few unexpected results.
I suppose it’s your wish the wheels comes off? But let me warn you, you will be facing a much bigger shitstorm comes 2027 RWC
So ja I can see we’re still butt hurt we won again.
He is a South African author. He is just as happy as you the boks won
“wheel fall off the LOTTO winners” ? the numbers cant drop every time. An average team sprinkled with 1-2 World class players (PSTD, Kolbe), it doesnt take much for the wheels to fall off.
Nigel secondary account.
So South Africa is doomed apparently, except for a casual mention that Toulouse and La Rochelle have been having the same post WC blues. So not just SA then?!
So many “pundits” predicting our demise. In Rassie we trust
Good analysis.
After 2019 we heard that the South Africa teams would dominate the URC, and that hasn’t happened. After the 2023 RWC we heard that South Africa would dominate the 6N if they joined, despite the fact that they regularly lose to the six nations teams when they play, and have never won a full-length Rugby Championship. Throughout it all we have been told that South Africa have the greatest strength in depth of any country on earth.
What we are seeing, and what we have seen for several years now, is that South Africa can only be great for extremely short periods of time. Unlike the 2005-2018 All Blacks (or even 2016-17 England or 2022-23 Ireland), South Africa are only able to beat the top teams when they have the freedom to use lesser fixtures as training runs. If Erasmus truly aspired to coach the greatest team of all time, a 67% win rate would not have been considered acceptable.
What we are also seeing is that there frankly is no strength in depth behind the current springboks team. There are a small number of very good uncapped players (Horn, Green, J. Vermeulen, etc.) but its extremely hard to see where the bulk of the 2027 squad are going to come from.
Aged well
Interesting take. Regardless of what is being said by whoever “they“ are, the fact remains, that the Springboks won back-to-back RWCs, and did that thanks to their squad depth. The top 4 teams were pretty even in their starting XV, some had even a slight upper hand there.
But no other team in the world had players of the caliber of Snyman, or Kwagga Smith on their bench. Not even the ABs. Now that might change by the time 2027 RWC rolls in. Who knows…
South Africa seem to have an endless pipeline of talent, with Springbok leftovers populating the rosters of other countries. France are now the JRWC champions for the 3rd consecutive time, so they won’t be slowing down in time for the next RWC.
Ireland with their brilliant central contracting system will stay at the top or thereabout, and I don’t expect the ABs to decline under Razor. So, in all likelihood, it will be the same 4 usual suspects in 2027 with England trying to put their foot in, But they can’t rely on the same perfect pool. It’s going to be much more even the next time around.
It’s hard to see because you don’t know what you’re talking about.
And an SA team won the URC in 2022, runners up in 2023. Not dominant enough?
Why don’t we rather talk about the English team, Finn. Or is it that jumping on the Ben and Nigel train brings you more pleasure?
I guess supporting a team that has only won one 6N in 5 years and zero world cups in 20 years - the only trophies on offer for England really unless we want to include the Calcutta cup - must be pretty miserable stuff indeed.
But hang on. Doesn’t England have all that depth? All those top flight teams in the premiership? What’s going on? Why don’t these things correlate into more trophies for England? If these are such important variables?
Or is it that English rugby is just poorly managed at the Red Rose level? Perhaps England should stick to football?
Oh wait…
I’m starting to think you’re just here to aggravate SA fans - in the same vein as Ben and Nigel. Which makes sense as a self proclaimed “anti-South African”. Which is xenophobic by the way. I can criticize the English rugby team on a rugby website - but I don’t have to be “anti-English” do I? What’s the chip on the shoulder about?
You’re more intelligent at least than Nigel, I’ll give you that. But your “analysis” and opinion about a team and rugby nation you know very little about, proves to me that you’re just a burner account yourself.
Or maybe you’re also a Saffa? I wonder.
As you wish.
The horrific bias, protection and favoritism that SA's international teams and players have enjoyed from WR/IRB over the past 3 decades is not that definitive in the URC. Hardly rocket science.
Mate if you truly believe what you are saying may I suggest you seek out a good therapist because you seem deranged.
Not sure about that, but hats off to them, they won the RWC the hard way.