Richard Cockerill: 'We're probably too good for this tournament'

Well that’s embarrassing, I watched that 1996 tour. Thanks for not making a meal of it.

Even so, 30 years has extremely good rarity value, whereas the Rugby Championship is annual. You say that you like watching us play Argentina – well guess what, it will happen that year like every year. A proper All Black tour of South Africa won’t – it’s special and there is huge demand for it in both countries.

(BTW that Ashes comment of yours – you seem to be confusing English people with a passing interest in cricket with cricket fans. And I never said that they would have two months rest, just that there would be two months between the two – plenty of time between peaks.)

You mention that South Africa’s win percentage here is 22% “implying a 3-0 whitewash would be the most likely result.” Well, 22% is much closer to 33% than 0% so on that basis the most likely outcome isn’t 3-0 but 2-1. And our 72% win rate is much closer to 67% than 100%.

That’s the most jeopardy that you get when a team is playing in NZ. Even the Lions only have a 17% winning record. We have 87% winning records against France, England and Ireland. Argentina who you mention has a 6% winning record here and realistically the jeopardy is far less. I’m sure that don’t believe that the All Blacks should never play at home due to lack of jeopardy.

By your logic of “South Africa have no chance at all of winning a series in New Zealand” there was no chance that France could have won the series in 1994 or Ireland in 2022 but your logic is totally and utterly fatally flawed because they did.

And you accuse me of talking nonsense?

As for first choice Springboks playing in England and France, there aren’t many nowadays and South Africa has an arrangement with the clubs where both parties manage their workload. You don’t need to be concerned that the proposed tours will make standards drop further - workloads will be managed and a major reason for the initiative is that players outside the top 23s will benefit massively from experience in and against the other country.

I was trying to pick a sample size that was reasonably big, without going back to include matches played before any of the current crop of players had turned pro. I didn’t cherry pick the period 2010-2017, I picked the period 2010-2023, which includes some matches played during a period of historic weakness for South Africa, and some played during a period of historic weakness for New Zealand. If you expand the sample to include all matches ever played between the two sides in New Zealand, South Africa have won only 22% of all fixtures, implying a 3-0 whitewash would be the most likely result of a three match series.

“eight or nine matches are planned. A proper tour with midweek matches, unlike 1996”

1996 did include midweek matches, for a total of 7 matches, or 8 if you include the tri nations match that was also played at the beginning of the tour.

“the tour would be over in August, two months before the November internationals”

but that two month period won’t be spent resting? At most there will be a month of rest.

“With the NZ/SA and Argentina/Australia part of the RC in August, the rest - probably a single match between each team - will be in September”

right, so after all this, it seems that this will just have the outcome of devaluing the rugby championship. I say I want to watch good rugby, and I do watch good rugby; I watch the rugby championship. There have been some great matches recently between the All Blacks and Argentina, and now you’re saying there will be less of them.

“if you're so worried about players being able to peak when needed you should be looking at the French and English clubs”

but, there are South Africans who play in England and France? Also, we know England and France are able to play at a good standard. Probably if welfare regulations were more strictly enforced that standard would go up, but it doesn’t show signs of going down. For most of my life South Africa and New Zealand have played rugby at a really really excellent standard. Recently those standards have been dropping outside of world cup years, and I’m concerned they might drop further.

So now you've moved on from talking about multiple matches in a non world cup year to cherry picking a period when the All Blacks had their best ever team and South Africa were weak 2010 to 2017. Since then the two teams have been very even in tests played in both countries - in NZ one win to each team and a draw.

So to say that there will be no jeopardy, to claim that I’m “completely unaware of history” and talking “nonsense” is ridiculous.

If you'd read up on the proposed tour, you would know that that eight or nine matches are planned. A proper tour with midweek matches, unlike 1996. The last July test will be on the 18th, meaning that the tour would be over in August, two months before the November internationals. With the NZ/SA and Argentina/Australia part of the RC in August, the rest - probably a single match between each team - will be in September.

You say that you want to watch good rugby. This tour will have fantastic rugby. You don't need to worry about NZ and SA being fresh in November or the World Cup - we know how to look after your players.

On the other hand, if you're so worried about players being able to peak when needed you should be looking at the French and English clubs. Ntamack complaining that he only gets a rest when he's injured. English players like Itoje already in March having maxed out their season workload according to the player welfare agreement. That's where the real problem lies.

The events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC.

If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents.

Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition.

Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).

Cockerill was an abrasive player in the mould of a Georgian front rower who will have the respect of that pack. Looking forward to seeing what he can do with this exciting team, hopefully they can send a message to unions like Wales that money alone doesn't buy you wins.

I like the look of those July matches. Hopefully they'll get some good tests in November too.