Robinson talks up England World Cup chances

A stat I did see was disquieting. France are converting 56% of their 22 entries to tries. They scored a lot versus Italy, but missed a lot against England.

This resembles a bit the damage Toulouse were doing after line breaks. Flament was all over this. The defence will need to be excellent and our best defender Ringrose will not be there. That said versus England we conceded 3 points in 68 mins. We conceded 11 in 75 against Scotland but we were messing for 7 of that.

It is hard to score against Ireland.

When Aki came on versus Wales we scored 19 points in half an hour which was roughly France’s scoring rate against Wales in Paris.

France will score, but Ireland with a full performance should outscore.

As rgds the 7-1 split, Ireland will inflict physical damage like versus Springboks in Durban. I think France are underestimating Ireland’s physicality and I will be surprized if that split doesnt cause problems and backfire a little.

Ireland are doing the same thing with Osborne on the wing, its a result of the 6-2 split.

Dalys experience could also count in his favour, in a backline that doesn’t have much of it from 9 to 14.

A Flanker with a 7’s background and experience to cover as a utility back? Their sole back, a replacement scrum-halve was also their 3rd choice kicker at one point?

It’s not nearly the risk it’s billed as.

Stoppages can be a factor in destroying momentum or the tempo of the game overall.

If you want another point of comparison, the URC [with four SA sides and an SA coach in charge of the best team in the comp, Leinster], features a BIP time of just under 36’, but with an average of ‘only’ 3.2 tries and 23.4 points per team per game.

So the ball is ‘live’ but there is a slightly more defensive focus.

The last figs I have for Top 14 had 34.5’ of BIP, with averages of 2.8 tries and 24.4 points per game.

That three-way sports scene with Aussie Rules and League can be made to work in your favour too.

For example Aussie and Ireland often produce the best high-ball leapers in the world, and it is usually because of a Rules or Gaelic Footy background!