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Filling in the gaps in the draw for the 2019 World Cup

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and World Rugby chairman Bill Beaumont at the draw for the 2019 World Cup

There are a few holes in the draw for the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan. James Harrington has done his best to fill them.

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There you have it – the draw for the 2019 World Cup in Japan is complete.

At least, most of it. Eight teams have yet to qualify. And the last vacant slot in Pool B won’t be filled until November 2018, following a four-team repechage competition.

However, to offer a hint of how the pools may look two years and four months from now, teams from each of those ongoing qualifying tournaments are listed in brackets, selected from their respective tournaments according to current World Rugby rankings.

So, this is how the pools could look in 2019, and what fans could look forward to in each of the four pools:

Pool A – The Party Pool

Teams: Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Europe 1 (Romania), Play-off winner (Samoa)

If you’re going to Japan 2019 and want to have a good time, this is the pool to follow. The on-field entertainment will be pretty good, but the craic in and around the grounds will be off the scale.

The most serious rugby-related issue for those sides looking to qualify for the knockout phase will be avoiding New Zealand in the quarter-finals. As the world champions don’t do group-phase tactics beyond win all their games, that’s relatively simple. Whoever finishes second in Pool A will face an All Blacklash in the last eight. Of course, whoever tops Pool A and avoids New Zealand can expect to face South Africa, who must have improved by September 2019, surely.

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At this stage, everyone expects two of Ireland, Scotland and hosts Japan to qualify. But two difficult sides could fill those vacant slots.

Pool B – The Foregone Conclusion Pool

Teams: New Zealand, South Africa, Italy, Africa 1 (Namibia), Repechage winner (Spain)

Much has been made of the fact that Japan 2019 will be the first time that New Zealand and South Africa have ever met in the pool phase of a World Cup. But, let’s be honest, it’s not as if they never meet.

Beyond the Rugby Championship sides, the only question is: which side will finish third and qualify for the 2023 World Cup in Ireland, or France, or even South Africa? This far out from the tournament, Italy have to be very early favourites.

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Pool C – The Official Pool of Death™

Teams: England, France, Argentina, Americas 1 (USA), Oceania 2 (Tonga)

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England coach Eddie Jones doesn’t like the ‘Pool of Death’ cliche – “Nobody’s going to die,” he said when the question was put to him soon after the draw was made. Which is all the more reason to use it, even though it is a cliche. Besides, the consensus of opinion is that Pool C was not the World Cup draw that England, Argentina or France were looking for.

No wonder. Three tier one sides with knockout-phase ambitions, and just two quarter-final slots up for grabs equals disappointment for one of them. England know all about that, after 2015. Not that it gets much easier later on in the competition. Whoever wins this pool is on a semi-final collision course with New Zealand.

That’s before considering the two unfilled slots. Oceania 2, in particular, could cause a few problems.

Pool D – The Pool of Wince

Teams: Australia, Wales, Georgia, Oceania 1 (Fiji), Americas 2 (Uruguay)

Oceania 1 could make this pool tougher than it would otherwise be for tier one sides Australia and Wales. Fiji are currently the highest-ranked of the Pacific Island sides, but there’s not much between them, Samoa (who, we’ve got as Play-off winners in a shootout match between the third-placed side from Oceania and the second-ranked team in the Rugby Europe Championship – based on World Rugby’s current rankings) and Tonga. Any one of those three could give the early knockout-phase favourites a serious run for their money.

After the Pools

The knockout phase of the 2019 World Cup looks like this:

Quarter-finals

QF1: Winners Pool B v runners up Pool A

QF2: Winners Pool C v runners up Pool D

QF3: Winners Pool D v runners up Pool C

QF4: Winners Pool A v runners up Pool B

Semi Finals

SF1: Winner QF1 v Winner QF2

SF2: Winner QF3 v Winner QF4

We’ll leave you to work out the permutations that end with your preferred country lifting the Webb Ellis trophy.

And, in case you want to know, here’s how those eight empty slots will be filled.

Europe 1 qualifier: The highest-ranked team from the Rugby Europe Championship (excluding already qualified Georgia)

Oceania 1 and 2 qualifiers: Two teams qualify from a Pacific Nations Cup tournament played on a home-and-away basis during June 2016 and 2017

Play-off qualifier: The third-placed team from the Pacific Nations Cup play a two-leg home-and-away play-off against the second-ranked team in the Rugby Europe Championship (excluding already qualified Georgia). The winner on aggregate will join Pool A at the World Cup in Japan.

Americas 1 and 2 qualifiers: Canada and USA will play home-and-away, with the winner on aggregate qualifying for Japan 2019. The loser will then play home-and-away against the top-ranked South American team (excluding Argentina) with the winner on aggregate qualifying. The loser of this match qualifies for a four-team repechage tournament.

Africa 1 qualifier: The winner of the Rugby Africa Championship will qualify. The runner-up qualifies for the repechage tournament

Asia/Oceania play-off for repechage place: The highest-ranked team from the Asia Rugby Championship (excluding Japan) will play home-and-away against the winner of the Oceania Cup, with the winner on aggregate qualifying for the repechage tournament

Repechage qualifier: The repechage tournament will feature four teams playing in a round-robin format with the winners qualifying for that Pool B slot at the 2019 World Cup.

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O
Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 3 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
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