Scotland's best chance at slaying the Pool B giants

Scotland’s will go as underdogs into their Rugby World Cup opener with the defending champions but they have enough in their game to trouble the Springboks.

To get the win will require something special but they have the man to do it, Finn Russell, who will need to produce a game similar to the third British & Irish Lions Test.

Scotland can win if they take the Springboks strengths away and play low phase, quick width rugby fuelled by the right kicking strategy.

The key is to avoid long phase counts with the ball where they will be jammed by the defensive line and eventually forced into the Boks’ back row, but also keep the ball in-play for as long as possible.

The attrition game that Ireland will attempt will not work for Scotland.

If Malcolm Marx is starting with the likes of Duane Vermuelen and Siya Kolisi, these poachers will eat Scotland alive. They can’t play a collision game and get turned continually late or midway through the phase counts.

Scotland will need to kick a hell of a lot, but keep the ball in-play, avoiding touch finders coming out of their own half.

This is something that Russell does frequently anyway, using his long kicking game to kick deep down the middle to find grass while Ali Price and Ben White need to find contestables with the box kick.

During the Lions series the Springboks could not handle aerial contests with Duhan van der Merwe on the left hand flank. South Africa’s backfield caught zero balls when going up against the towering ex-pat.

Each of those spills offered the Lions the chance to regather possession and strike against the retreating defensive line or drill another kick deep for territory.

Scotland need to exit with a contestable kick each time, preferably from the left side with Van der Merwe leading the kick chase to get up in the air.

Head-to-Head

Last 4 Meetings

Wins

4

Draws

0

Wins

0

Average Points scored

27

13

First try wins

100%

Home team wins

25%

This is South Africa’s biggest weakness and it must be targetted.

Willemse can have poor nights under the high ball and Le Roux’s height disadvantage is ripe for mismatches. Bomb the living daylights out of the Boks’ backfield.

When the Boks get the dropsies the heads drop and they lose their intensity, plus the best opportunities to strike come from these errors.

Then there is the short kicking game, needed to disarm the defensive line, which is perfect for Russell’s skillset, the No 10 with all the bag of tricks.

The dinks, the chips, the grubbers must be used inside South Africa’s half. The opportunities will come after the regather, and that is when Scotland must hit width immediately and find the strike weapons like Van der Merwe.

Russell must kick so much that he will be in the running for the golden boot award.

At Mt Smart during the Rugby Championship, Shannon Frizell’s barnstorming try came on the phases after a Beauden Barrett chip kick in-behind that was regathered by Richie Mo’unga.

The 10 metre gain from the chip kick left the Springboks defensive line in retreat mode, with zero line speed and disconnection all over the place.

Will Jordan spotted two tired props from way across the field, tracking from his right wing all the way to the other side to hit a ball off Aaron Smith to pierce this gap.

The Sione Tuipulotu-Huw Jones combination is key with the No 12 also possessing a short attacking kicking game required to get in behind the Springboks line. Jones is a good line runner who is perfect for the chase.

With kick options off 9, 10 and 12, they need to use them before the phase count gets high and find the space in behind.

When Scotland get the chance to launch from set-piece lineouts in decent field position, they must keep play inside either of the 15 metres tramlines.

Do not crash into the midfield and try and run forward pods around the corner.

The only plays that attack the middle of the field from lineouts should be first phase kicks in behind to turn the Springboks around straight away.

There are only two options on first phase with the ball-in-hand: attack the lineout seam inside the 10 channel or attack wide outside the 13 channel with a backs’ strike.

For attacking the seam there are two throws, a deliberate overthrow or a throw at the front at two. South Africa will give the front for free. Take it, maul, peel, and attack the seam.

South Africa will try and drive you over the sideline if you maul at the front of the lineout. This is desired as it will open up the highway up the seam and put a number of their forwards on the ground.

The peel must be ready and able to detach fast to prevent being bundled into touch. Detach and draw into contact the tail defender, often the Springbok hooker, Marx or Mbonambi, sometimes Mostert, who defends there.

If this defender is drawn, the seam will be wide open. Scotland must send their power runners like Duhan van der Merwe into that channel at Mannie Libbok’s inside shoulder.

After that there will be a wide open side on that second phase, it must be backs ball with Russell injecting to use the front foot ball with a quick recycle.

Strike plays utilising Russell’s long passing game or cross-field kicks that can hit the width are required.

Hit the seam then go straight to the edge all day long. Quick, short, sharp possessions.

Inside South Africa’s 22 consider being tackled into touch frequently. Of all the non-scoring negative outcomes, this is tactically one of the best.

A turnover penalty gives South Africa a free piggyback out of that zone with possession. Being held up loses up to 50 metres of territory from the goal line restart.

Being tackled out into touch within 15 metres of the try line will force the Springboks into a two-phase exit kick and hand Scotland another launch.

Rinse repeat the same formula until you score out wide or keep getting tackled into touch. Van der Merwe can win 5-10 metres through post-contact every time before going into touch. When he gets within scoring distance, he can have a crack.

To win Scotland need to achieve these things:

1) minimise the Springboks breakdown threats (low phase counts, low amount of middle third rucks)
2) minimise the opposition scrum count
3) Create frequent aerial battles and kick coverage situations to defend
4) Attack wide frequently and early

This kind of plan isn’t foolproof as every high ball contest or loose bouncing ball could end up in South Africa’s favour, but what it does do is increase the chance of a Scotland win. And that’s all you can ask for.

Getting dragged into a set-piece battle or a collision battle will fail. With a 6-2 or 7-1 split, all of South Africa’s power is all up front.

Scotland need a game plan that basically takes the socket out of the wall and turns that power off.

And they have Finn Russell, the perfect player to orchestrate that.

They need to go over them, then around them, and avoid everything else in between.