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Shock result: Crusaders left to rue costly errors with win over Rebels not enough for final guarantee

Will Jordan. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

In a shock result, the Crusaders have failed to record the requisite winning margin needed over the Rebels to book themselves a guaranteed spot in the Super Rugby Trans-Tasman final and are now reliant on the Blues dropping the ball against the Western Force.

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The Super Rugby Aotearoa champions went into the game with a rather simple equation to ensure a place in the final: beat the Rebels by 33 points and secure a winning bonus point.

It looked for all money like they might come close to achieving that in the first half after they went 14 points up after just six minutes of action – but the Rebels were the itch that never went away, and managed to stay keep the margin down.

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At halftime, the Crusaders held a 26-12 lead – with All Black Braydon Ennor dropping the ball with a clean run into the line ahead of him to close out the first stanza.

The tries kept coming for the Crusaders in the second half – but the Rebels kept coming too, with the two sides trading scores throughout the period and as the game entered the final 10 minutes, the Crusaders held a 19-point lead, three-try lead.

It was enough for the bonus point, but not to give them the margin they needed to jump ahead of the Highlanders on the overall ladder – they still needed two converted tries worth of points.

The first came via Ennor, who made up for his earlier error by marching under the point untouched off a bullet pass from replacement halfback Bryn Hall.

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That looked to be it for the Crusaders, with the Rebels attacking for the better part of the rest of the match – camped inside the Crusaders’ 22. With just a minute to play, however, the visitors earned a penalty five metres out from their own line and kicked to the sidelines for one last lineout.

From the ensuing play, however, Leicester Fainga’anuku – who’d earned the penalty seconds later, was stripped of the ball and that was to be the Crusadser’ last attack.

The game finished 52-26 in the Crusadsers’ favour – but they’ll be left to rue the points left out on the field.

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RedWarrior 1 hour ago
Three-way race to be number one in World Rugby men's rankings

IF SA and NZ win then its 1,2,3 SA/NZ/IRL Otherwise as you were. This is largely irrelevant beyond bragging rights.


As I have pointed out elsewhere the practical use of the Rankings is to determine the seedings bands for the RWC draw. The draw takes place early 2026 and hopefully the rankings will be taken from then.


Important to be in the top 6, the top 12. (and likely the top 4).

This is because there are now 6 groups in the RWC 2027.

If you are in top 6 you are in Seeding Band 1. That means none of the other top 6 will be in your group.

Seeding Band 2 are teams from 7-12, who will have a top 6 team but no other 7-12 team.

After England's defeat by NZ there is clear water between NZ in 3rd, France in 4th and England in 5th. England are desperate for top4, ill come back and explain why later.

Lets look at Seeding Band 1 and 6th place. If you make 6th, no top 6 team is in your group, you are top dog. If you win your group, you won't be facing a top 6 team in your 1/8th final, you will be facing a weaker team. If you fail to make 6th place you WILL have a top 6 team in your group and if you don't win your group you WILL (probably) meet a top 6 in the 1/8 final. That's massive.


Its Argentina holding 6th now. Assuming England hold 5th, then its a 4 horse race for 6th. Argentina, Scotland, Italy and ...Australia. (ranked 6,7,8,9)

Australia play the Lions in NH summer 2025 they are running out of time to get up to 6th for their own RWC. They MUST make a move now. They must beat Wales and they really must beat Scotland to gain points and take points off them. Could they surprise England or Ireland? England may be the better bet but Schmidt knows Ireland so well having masterminded their downfall in France.

Another one to watch is Italy V Argentina. Italy are ambitious and they will want to start pushing the likes of Argentina. If they win this they are still in the hunt. Well worth a watch either way.


Top4: I think the top 6 will be seeded, all the way through from the draw. If thats the case then the top 4 will be seeded to avoid each other until the semi. Good for more certainty around ticket sales etc. That's a possible reason why England want in there. You're not in there you are hitting a top 4 team in a QF. That's an extra 50:50 match you can do without and avoid by being top 4.


Lets look at what Seeding bands might look like with todays rankings:


Seeding Band 1

IRE/SA/NZ/FRA/ENG/ARG

Seeding Band 2

SCO/ITA/AUS/FIJ/WAL/GEO


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: FIJI

1/8 final opponent GEORGIA

Prognosis: advance to 1/4 and potentially beyond


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if NOT in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: SOUTH AFRICA

1/8 final opponent NEW ZEALAND

Prognosis: You know the prognosis


I am pretty sure this is not lost on Joe Schmidt?


Keep in mind when enjoying the matches.

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