The Short Ball - Season 3 / Episode 15 - The cow that peed on a bar

So he actually said BOTH Ireland and New Zealand will have trepidation going into this match. Same as any big match so.

Over half of those names finished for an injury struck Ireland in the win V SA in Durban.

Their historical average is something like 77% these days and, although some years will always be better than others it is not likely to drop that dramatically to 70% any time soon. There is too much historical inertia on the stats. It is like saying Ireland’s form of the last 10 years or so is likely to reverse a historical average of 48% wins soon. It just isn’t.

Moreover, when you say they are ‘doomed’ to a 70% flatline are you not just assuming that Ireland will beat them again? How did that work out for you last time?

Borthwick has got it wrong, so very wrong. From what I hear camp has regressed and become an unhappy place once more. You only need to look at Marler’s abrupt departure when the team was named in camp and the grenade he lobbed on his way out the door that effectively retired him from test rugby! It was clear that he was livid at missing out on his match fee (no longer paid unless you’re in the 23 or on an eps contract apparently). Introducing a two tier system on the eve of the AIs was total madness!!! And then there’s selection. Slade wasn’t anywhere near ready, neither was Ford and hooking smith when the game is in the balance was beyond comprehension. Even if he needed to do that, fin smith steered his team adroitly to the Prem last year but was nowhere to be seen.

Then there’s his game plan. England looked like they were in danger of making real progress towards the end of the 6N but Saturday was the antithesis of that approach. There wasn’t an attack visible that was worthy of the description.

Borthwicks win rate is now abysmally low and this is beginning to look like it only end badly…

Nz also seem to be relying on older players for some positions too. Who else can play 10 outside Barrett and D mac?