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Should Ireland Be Favourites To Win The Six Nations?

Robbie Henshaw (Getty Images)

Joe Schmidt’s Ireland squad should have everyone very worried – especially England, writes Lee Calvert.

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If a statistician was to do some form of analysis on Ireland’s 2016 the line of best fit for their form would start to trend upwards somewhere around the final game of Six Nations, when they cut loose vs Scotland, continue this trajectory through their close-fought June series in South Africa, then smash through the roof with that defeat of the All Blacks in Chicago in November.

Their 2017 could be even better. As they head into the Six Nations, the squad that beat New Zealand has been bolstered with some serious new talent.

For so long, Ireland’s fortunes were dependent – far too dependent some would say – on the form and presence of Jonny Sexton, whose only backups were the mansize fuzzy felt Ian Madigan, the horrific Ian Keatley or the toddler-faced unformed talent of Paddy Jackson. What 2016 clearly showed is that Jackson has now realised his potential: Ireland appear something close to the same team when he is the pivot as when Sexton is there. This is a heartening development as the Leinster ten once again has an injury niggle to sweat over.

Since Ireland’s historic victory over the All Blacks in Chicago the form of three of their provinces has been good-to-outstanding. The only spanner in the works being Ulster, who are playing like they’ve had their brains wiped by a freak radiation accident.

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Munster, who have bounced back incredibly from the shocking death of legend Anthony Foley, qualified for the European Champions Cup quarterfinals along with Leinster, while Connacht missed out by the narrowest of margins. Much of this achievement has been due to the form of the experienced Ireland internationals in their ranks.

Robbie Henshaw is playing brilliantly since his move to Leinster; CJ Stander is so good every week that they might as well give him the man of the match award while he’s taking his pre-match dump; Iain Henderson is single-handedly holding the Ulster pack together. Conor Murray and Sexton continue to be top drawer as do Peter O’Mahoney, Tadhg Furlong and any other you care to name. Even Rob Kearney looks back to decent form, something that early last year looked about as likely to happen as Donald Trump changing his hairstyle.

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Added to this has been the form and burgeoning class of the new generation.  Ireland have been in a transitional period for so long that it was easy to imagine that they would never come out of it; that not finding players to replace the like of Brian O’Driscoll would be a permanent state of being. But on recent showing it appears the light at the end of the long transition tunnel is growing brighter. Garry Ringrose is oozing top-level class in the centre for Leinster alongside Henshaw and this is perfectly-timed given the injury to Schmidt midfield favourite Jared Payne. Young loose forward Jack Conan is a special talent, Ultan Dillane continues to look the real deal and young Munster wing Andrew Conway is a huge part of the province’s turnaround.

This all-round form, alloyed with having one of the best coaches in the business and home fixtures against both France and England means that despite England being odds-on, Ireland should really be the favourites to win the tournament.  It will likely all come down to the last weekend when England roll up to Lansdowne Road. It promises to be some match.

IRELAND SQUAD

Forwards: Finlay Bealham (Connacht), Rory Best (Ulster), Jack Conan (Connacht), Ultan Dillane (Connacht), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster), Cian Healy (Leinster), Jamie Heaslip (Leinster), Iain Henderson (Ulster), Billy Holland (Munster), Dave Kilcoyne (Munster), Dan Leavy (Leinster), Jack McGrath (Leinster), Sean O’Brien (Leinster), Tommy O’Donnell (Munster), Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Donnacha Ryan (Munster), John Ryan (Munster), Niall Scannell (Munster), CJ Stander (Munster), Devin Toner (Leinster), James Tracy (Leinster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster).

Backs: Tommy Bowe (Ulster), Andrew Conway (Munster), Keith Earls (Munster), Craig Gilroy (Ulster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Paddy Jackson (Ulster), Rob Kearney (Leinster), Kieran Marmion (Connacht), Luke Marshall (Ulster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), Luke McGrath (Leinster), Conor Murray (Munster), Tiernan O’Halloran (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Rory Scannell (Munster), Jonathan Sexton (Leinster), Andrew Trimble (Ulster), Simon Zebo (Munster)

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Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 2 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
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