Why we shouldn't write off Samoa against the All Blacks

The All Blacks are at short odds to deliver a big win against Samoa at Eden Park tonight, but history suggests it might not be so straightforward.

The All Blacks take on Manu Samoa tonight at Eden Park, a mere 24 years after the two teams last played there. It’s overdue, but a good move by NZ Rugby, given that they’re doubling up the fixture with Tonga playing Wales as well. Hopefully these Pacific Island double headers will become a permanent fixture.

The All Blacks, despite missing captain Kieran Read, shouldn’t have too much trouble with Manu Samoa though, right? Maybe, but history suggests that a rusty start to the first test of the season isn’t out of the realms of possibility:

1992 vs World XV: Lost 18-24

The early 90s were a period of flux for the All Blacks. The fallout from the ‘91 World Cup failure carried over to the next season, with new coach Laurie Mains having to deal with a raft of departed players. However, that’s no excuse for losing to a pulled-together World XV as part of the NZRFU’s centenary celebrations. While the All Blacks were a new-look side, it’s doubtful the World XV even trained seriously before the first test.

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1993 vs Lions: Won 20-18

A win, but hardly a good one. Frank Bunce scored a debatable try to open the scoring, but it was the end that Lions fans are still angry about. The All Blacks were awarded an even more debatable penalty, which Grant Fox kicked to win. The Lions turned it round the next weekend at Athletic Park and recorded their biggest ever test victory in New Zealand.

https://youtu.be/MFZfiIusBKY?t=6m44s

1994 vs France: Lost 8-22

While everyone remembers this series for being sealed with the ‘try from the end of the earth’, the first test win in Christchurch by the French is arguably just as impressive. The visitors dominated the game from start to finish, setting up their memorable win a week later to become only the fourth team to win a series in New Zealand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0GUQz56Xvk

2003 vs England: Lost 13-15

No disgrace here, as probably the greatest England side that’s ever taken the field ground out a victory in the cold that evening at Westpac Stadium. Jonny Wilkinson’s boot proved the difference, and the All Blacks were lucky to be awarded the only try of the game as Doug Howlett was well in front of Carlos Spencer when he kicked the ball through for him to dive for over the try line. Just to prove it was no fluke, the English went on to win the World Cup later that year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGDivBtzfMM

2009 vs France: Lost 22-27

Out of nowhere, the French showed up again and iced the All Blacks at a frozen Carisbrook. Francois Trinh-Duc had a sensational game at first five, while the stuttering All Blacks were clearly missing the injured Dan Carter. That made two in a row for France over the All Blacks, with the first being the infamous Rugby World Cup quarter final in Cardiff two seasons before.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSFXxivsoMg

2016 vs Wales: Won 39-21

Yes, that scoreline does look pretty comfortable, but what it doesn’t show that a written-off but fired up Welsh side were winning at halftime. Rhys Webb introduced himself to New Zealand by playing a blinder, but the visitors fell to the All Blacks’ now mandatory 10-minute burst of brilliance.

So there is hope for Manu Samoa, especially given that the last time they played the All Blacks the match ended up being a lot closer than most thought. However, they’ll have to do better than the times they’ve played in New Zealand in the first test of the year: both occasions have ended up in a combined score of 122-23 to the All Blacks.