Simulator names 2024/25 Prem top four, makes grim Newcastle prediction

A supercomputer that estimates the outcome of every Gallagher Premiership fixture based on a team’s strength and betting market odds has named its 2024/25 semi-finalists and also predicted that Newcastle will finish bottom of the table without a single win.

The probability model, which last month predicted that the currently unbeaten South Africa would win all six of their Rugby Championship matches (they are four from four so far), has simulated every upcoming Premiership fixture 10,000 times to construct an average league table.

What is predicted for the 2024/25 regular season is that defending champions Northampton will finish in first place with 11 wins and a draw from their 18-match programme, securing them a home semi-final at Franklin’s Gardens.

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Second place Saracens are predicted to also finish on 59 points, winning 11 matches, with the 10-win Bath in third a point behind and Leicester taking the fourth and final play-off spot on 56 points with 11 wins. That would mean a semi-final line-up of Northampton at home to Leicester with Saracens hosting Bath.

Sale and Bristol will be the two teams that will feel unlucky not to have made the last four as the Premiership SuperComputer challenge, overseen by the boffins at Grosvenor Sport, has them respectively finishing in fifth and sixth place on 54 and 53 points.

Having finished bottom in 2023/24, Steve Diamond’s Newcastle are in for further misery as they are predicted to finish with just seven points and zero wins over the course of the new campaign. Such an outcome would leave them involved in a two-legged play-off for survival against the No1 side in the Championship.

A Grosvenor Sport spokesperson said: “It promises to be a season of change in the Gallagher Premiership, with new faces throughout the division, a host of new captains taking charge of their teams and the reintroduction of promotion and relegation.

“Northampton Saints had an imperious season, largely thanks to the ferocious presence of Courtney Lawes in the pack, but his departure is set to not weaken the team too much according to the SuperComputer.

“Saracens are also missing a host of big names such as Owen Farrell, but they too are expected to have a big season. At the other end of the table, Newcastle’s time in the Premiership looks to be under threat with the reintroduction of relegation.”