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Six Nations 2017 Preview: Discount the Mongrel Welsh at Your Peril

Wales' inspirational new captain Alun Wyn Jones on the charge

Could we be in for a more subtle, free-flowing, expansive Wales this year? Here’s hoping, writes James Harrington.

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What to look out for
Something a little different, if you don’t mind, Wales? In recent years the Welsh game has been – individual moments of brilliance apart – stultifyingly dull, direct and predictable. Interim coach Rob Howley has selected a side including seven uncapped players that, on paper at least, looks as if they will play something a little more subtle, free-flowing, and expansive. Here’s hoping.

Strengths
The mongrel attitude of the never-say-die Welsh. They have been underdogs before, and despite fairly dire performances in the November internationals (where they still managed to win three of their four games!) it would be a mistake to write them off completely. They have come into this tournament pretty much under the radar, while everyone has focused on England and Ireland. That could work to their advantage – but only if they have come up with a gameplan beyond the much-maligned ‘Warrenball’.

Weaknesses
Form. Those November internationals will have done little to ease the worries of Wales fans. Could this be the beginning of the end of the Warren Gatland-Rob Howley era?

The Man in Charge
With Warren Gatland back on Lions’ duty, the Welsh have put Rob Howley in charge. The last time that happened – again when Gatland was in charge of the big summer tour – Wales won the 2013 tournament despite losing their opening match. This time, he’s developing a team very much in transition… and time is not on his side.

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Player to Watch
Wasps’ mighty Thomas Young. The son of the club’s director of rugby and former British Lion Dai has made the most of the chances that have come his way, while injuries have sidelined both James Haskell and Sam Jones. He has been key to the club’s fast, fluid style; a link-man between forwards and backs. Despite his relatively small stature, Young has proven he is more than robust enough to tangle with the biggest and best of them.

Best Chance of an Upset
Closing the roof at the Principality Stadium. After all, the fixture list is not in their favour. After an opening weekend away-day in Rome, they have two rather more difficult games in Edinburgh and Paris, and their two home matches are against England and Ireland – both sides with noticeably shorter odds on tournament success. But, if the roof is closed and the crowd ramps up the noise, who knows what could happen? A win against either of the tournament favourites would make Wales contenders for the crown.

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Prediction
Fourth. Joe Schmidt last week labelled Wales a ‘sleeping giant’ ahead of the tournament – which is often regarded as a hint of better things to come. It’s probably true, but the downside is it also means that they’re not quite good enough yet, despite all the pre-tournament optimism among fans. Three away fixtures, including a final day trip to new-look France, is likely to dull the dragon’s roar this year.

Squad
Forwards: Scott Andrews, Scott Baldwin, Jake Ball, Luke Charteris, Olly Cracknell, Kristian Dacey, Rob Evans, Taulupe Faletau, Tomas Francis, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones (c), Rhodri Jones, James King, Samson Lee, Ross Moriarty, Ken Owens, Nicky Smith, Rory Thornton, Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton, Thomas Young
Backs: Dan Biggar, Alex Cuthbert, Aled Davies, Jonathan Davies, Gareth Davies, Sam Davies, Steffan Evans, Leigh Halfpenny, Ashton Hewitt, George North, Jamie Roberts, Rhys Webb, Liam Williams, Owen Williams, Scott Williams

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O
Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 3 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
LONG READ
LONG READ England need to face a few home truths if they are to relearn that winning habit England need to face a few home truths if they are to relearn that winning habit
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