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Six Nations Preview: Ireland vs France

Johnny Sexton

Ireland vs France at the Aviva Stadium
(Sunday, February 26, 12.50am HKT)

James Harrington previews must-win match for two teams with plenty to prove.

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What we can expect
High-tempo, high-intensity, hard-hitting rugby on a typically ‘soft’ February day in Dublin.

Ireland
Irish eyes will be looking for just one name on the teamsheet. And, yes, he’s back. Johnny Sexton is set to make his first start in the 2017 Six Nations on the day Ireland make their first appearance at home in the tournament. Meanwhile, Jack McGrath slots back in to start at prop with Cian Healy dropping back to the bench, and captain Rory Best is also back after missing the Italy win with a stomach bug.

Matchday 23: Kearney, Earls, Ringrose, Henshaw, Zebo, Sexton, Murray, McGrath, Best, Furlong, D Ryan, Toner, CJ Stander, O’Brien, Heaslip. Bench: Scannell, Healy, J Ryan, Henderson, O’Mahony, Marmion, Jackson, Trimble

France
Guy Novès has made three changes from the starting XV that beat Scotland in Paris a fortnight ago. Two are injury-enforced: Yoann Huget comes in for Virimi Vakatawa, while Bernard Le Roux will pack down alongside Kevin Gourdon and Louis Picamoles, with Loann Goujon and Damien Chouly both in the infirmary. But he’s also called up Rabah Slimani – with Uini Atonio dropping to the bench, where he’ll sit alongside a new-look set of replacements including Eddy Ben Arous, Charles Ollivon, Henry Chavancy and Djibril Camara. Les Bleus look short of cover at 10, with starting scrum-half Serin likely to step in if Lopez is injured, and they still don’t have a consistent kicker, which could be a problem.

Matchday 23: Spedding, Huget, Lamerat, Fickou, Nakaitaci, Lopez, Serin; Baille, Guirado, Slimani, Vahaamahina, Maestri, Le Roux, Gourdon, Picamoles Bench: Tolofua, Atonio, Ben Arous, Le Devedec, Ollivon, Machenaud, Chavancy, Camara

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All eyes on: Johnny Sexton
Sexton has not played for Ireland since the November internationals and has managed barely two hours of club rugby in the three months since then. But he is so important to Ireland that it is no surprise he has been called up now he has proved his fitness. It will also come as no surprise to see a conveyor-belt of hairy-arsed French forwards launching themselves at him from the very first whistle.

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Key battle: The forwards
The French pack, while it still has plenty of oomph, is more mobile than many give credit – and with the likes of Ollivon, Ben Arous and Le Devedec in wait on the bench, the Irish can expect little let-up for 80 minutes.

Prediction
The difference will be in the accuracy of the kicking – and there the hosts have the edge. Ireland by 6.

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S
SK 1 hour ago
'Haves and have nots': The Six Nations numbers reveal hidden truths

Really interesting stats, especially around the scrums and the props spending so little time in them. The game is changing and is becoming faster but its also heavily territory and momentum dependent now. The amount of tries scored by forwards in the top 3 teams shows the importance of forward firepower at the lineout and is also of great importance when you are 5m out trying to get over the line from general play. Ireland don’t have behemoths but do well in this area due to superior technique and quality, France have the biggest most powerful pack and replace them with an arguably bigger pack with the 7-1 and England have plenty of power in this area. Teams are choosing to retain territory and use pens as a launchpad for dominating territory. Exits have also never been as important as they are today with teams giving away turnovers in their own half being heavily punished. The 50-22 is also important in this respect and we have seen how kickers go for it when on or inside their own 10. This especially happens directly after an aerial duel contest is won or in the event of a turnover in midfield. With the winger out of place and defence scrambling at the line a kicker is well within his rights to go for the 50-22. Giving away back to back penalties is also a no no as this leads to a 60-80m retreat. The Six Nations proves that in the modern age territorial supremacy and forward based power is what is winning games and championships.

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