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Six Nations Preview: Scotland vs Italy

Will Stern's face betray any emotion during his last match in charge of Scotland?

Scotland v Italy at Murrayfield

(Saturday, March 18, 8:30pm HKT)

Big Vern’s glorious Edinburgh farewell

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What we can expect

Six Nations matches between Scotland and Italy have tended to be tight, tense affairs – but this is New Scotland, and they’re bidding farewell to the coach who reinvigorated them. They will want to send him off to Montpellier on a high, with Flower of Scotland ringing in his ears.

Scotland

Scotland have made just one change from the side that was handed a shellacking at Twickenham last week, with Ross Ford replacing Fraser Brown at hooker. Interestingly – and perhaps slightly worrying – is the fact that Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour and Ryan Wilson have all been named in the starting lineup despite still going through return-to-play protocols following head injuries.

Matchday 23: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price; 1 Gordon Reid, 2 Ross Ford, 3 Zander Ferguson, 4 Richie Gray, 5 Jonny Gray, 6 John Barclay (c), 7 Hamish Watson, 8 Ryan Wilson. Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Allan Dell, 18 Simon Berghan, 19 Tim Swinson, 20 Cornell Du Preez, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Matt Scott

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Italy

The last time Italy went to Edinburgh, they won 22-19. But that was back in 2015 – and they have lost 11 Six Nations matches on the bounce since then. It’s almost impossible to see them ending that miserable run this weekend. Conor O’Shea has made four changes from the team that lost against France in Rome last weekend, but at the end of a dismal campaign lightened only by their smart use of the anti-ruck against England, Italy will just want to go home and forget the 2017 Six Nations ever happened.

Matchday 23: 15 Edoardo Padovani, 14 Angelo Esposito, 13 Tommaso Benvenuti, 12 Luke McLean, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti; 10 Carlo Canna, 9 Edoardo Gori; 1 Andrea Lovotti, 2 Ornel Gega, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 4 Marco Fuser, 5 George Biagi, 6 Maxime Mbanda, 7 Abraham Steyn, 8 Sergio Parisse (c). Replacements: 16 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 17 Sami Panico, 18 Dario Chistolini, 19 Andries Van Schalkwyk, 20 Federico Ruzza, 21 Francesco Minto, 22 Marcello Violi, 23 Luca Sperandio

All eyes on: Vern Cotter

Who else could it be? It’s Stern’s final match in charge of Scotland. He usually watches the game – almost totally impassively – from the coaching nest. Expect to see much the same, but if you look closely, and squint a bit, you may find evidence of a mysterious liquid in the corner of one eye late in the day.

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Key battle: The Gray brothers vs Fuser and Biagi

Word is that Toulouse are interested in tempting Jonny Gray away from Glasgow to join brother Richie in the Rose City. And, according to L’Equipe, not even the fact he’s contracted with the Warriors until the end of the 2018 season is a problem. The pair have been brilliant collectively and individually throughout the tournament. It will be fascinating to see how the Italians, including Scottish-born George Biagi cope with the twin threat from the brothers Gray.

Prediction

Italy aren’t going to spoil the party for the big man who gave Scotland back their pride. Scotland by 23.

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J
JW 3 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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