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'Someone's going to miss out': The race to make the All Blacks loose forward trio

(Photos / Getty Images)

With three rounds remaining in Super Rugby Pacific, chances are diminishing to impress the All Blacks selectors for inclusion in July’s three-test series against Ireland.

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As is always the case, much intrigue will surround the selections made by head coach Ian Foster and his colleagues, but particular interest will be centred around certain positional groups where it remains unclear which players will and won’t make the cut.

Some of the positional groups that fit that bill include the front row and the midfield, where it’s a lolly scramble for selection.

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Aotearoa Rugby Pod | Episode 13

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Aotearoa Rugby Pod | Episode 13

Possibly the tightest squeeze, though, will come in the loose forwards, where a number of viable candidates loom as worthy test selections, but not all of them will feature in the next All Blacks squad.

That’s the verdict from former All Blacks hooker James Parsons and Crusaders halfback Bryn Hall in their most recent appearances on the Aotearoa Rugby Pod.

Parsons and Hall both waxed lyrical about the contenders in the running for All Blacks selection in the loose forwards, with the former particularly impressed by the return from injury of Blues blindside flanker Akira Ioane.

The 13-test All Black has exploded back into action for the Super Rugby Pacific table-topping Blues following a lengthy injury layoff, which saw him miss the first two months of the competition.

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Back-to-back standout displays against the Western Force and Melbourne Rebels over the last fortnight has thrust Ioane into the limelight, leading Parsons to praise the physicality he has shown in both of those matches.

“He’s really fit, he’ll get more and more minutes under his belt, but the thing I like about him most is his collision areas,” Parsons, a former Blues captain and centurion, told the Aotearoa Rugby Pod.

“He’s in the thick of it, he’s moving bodies, whether it’s through clean outs or dragging bodies with him through his leg drive, and having the ability to play on the edge.

“I feel like he’s really found his mojo and his balance to his game, and he’s got confidence in that and just goes out there and he’s Akira. He doesn’t try to be something he’s not, and I think that’s when you see the best in him.”

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With All Blacks captain Sam Cane and star man Ardie Savea the lead candidates to lock down the No 7 and No 8 roles in New Zealand’s starting back row, Ioane is a strong contender to accompany them on the short side of the scrum at No 6.

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However, Hall highlighted the congestion of frontrunners to fill that blindside flanker role, citing injured Highlanders star Shannon Frizell and versatile Crusaders flanker Ethan Blackadder as those competing with Ioane for that spot.

“I just think there’s so much talent at the moment that’s playing consistently well,” Hall, who is currently on tour with the Crusaders in Australia, told the Aotearoa Rugby Pod.

“We’ve talked around Shannon Frizell and his ability at the Highlanders before he was injured, you’ve got Ethan Blackadder who’s playing 6, 7, 8 at the moment, and then Akira’s come back and had some really good performances coming back from his long-term injury.

“It’s really hard to know where you can go, and, unfortunately, someone’s going to miss out, just due to the fact of how much talent there is and the kind of high level the loose forward trios are playing in the country at the moment.”

Parsons added that Chiefs powerhouse Luke Jacobson can’t be excluded from that list of blindside flanker options, and noted that breakout Chiefs star Pita Gus Sowakula may also come into the reckoning at No 8.

In saying that, Parsons questioned whether Sowakula had maintained his strong early-season form to demand selection from the All Blacks.

“I don’t think we can leave out Luke Jacobson. I think he’s made a good fist No 6. He’s such a strong ball-carrier, great defender,” the former two-test international said.

“He’s another one to put in the mix as well, and, you mentioned Sam Cane, Luke Jacobson and Pita Gus, when they’re humming, the Chiefs are humming, and I think the Chiefs are humming.

“I think you saw that one opportunity that Pita Gus got on the weekend [when he scored against the Brumbies], and he’s just a big body, too easy. Jacobson’s been making similar carries.

“There had been chat around Pita Gus, does he need to find a spark in form again to bring himself into that selection mindset?

“He’s a big man and that does give you a point of difference. There’s big guys, but he’s a big unit and has the ability to flatten people with ball in hand, and ball not in hand.”

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Of those rivalling Sowakula for a No 8 spot in the national squad is Hoskins Sotutu, who Parsons described as “an amazing talent”, which Hall agreed with as he acknowledged Sotutu’s skilful contributions to the Blues this season.

“I think Akira’s been coming back into a rich vein of form considering the break that he’s had, but a guy that probably [deserves mention] is Hoskins Sotutu and what he’s really bringing to that team as well,” Hall said.

“His distribution skills, I think you’re seeing off their scrum and lineout maul, his ability as a ball-player, just through his skillset and the amount of times you’ve seen him putting people away through his bridge passes with his passing game, is really great to see.”

Where that leaves Blues captain Dalton Papalii, arguably the most in-form loose forward in New Zealand this year, remains to be seen.

Being national captain, Cane is the probable occupant of the No 7 jersey, which may force Papalii outside of his preferred openside flanker position, but Hall said the 24-year-old is continuing to pressure the All Blacks selectors for a starting role.

“Yes, obviously he [Cane] is the captain, but it’s based around performances. You’re rewarded around your performances,” Hall told the Aotearoa Rugby Pod.

“Let’s be honest, being a captain, you probably get a little bit more rope, but with the way Dalts is playing, all you’re going to do is put pressure on selectors and coaching staff.”

Parsons added that Papalii’s versatility as a loose forward who can play at blindside, openside and No 8 might play into his hands come selection time, even if that means he is used as a bench player by the All Blacks.

“Dalton just loves playing. He’ll play anywhere. He honestly does, he just loves getting out there in the thick of it. Even if it is a bench role, he can play 6, 7, 8, I believe [he can play there] comfortably.”

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12 Comments
C
CO 909 days ago

The Allblacks are a bunch of amateurs. You select the team then the captain. Players are picked on performance not given multi year contracts. Canes time is past, Dalton and Ardie sew up 7 and size needs to be selected at 8 with a big unit also at 6. That's Akira and Gus. The Allblacks are arrogant amateurs because they think they can beat brute strength with mobility and have a coach that excels at nothing

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spady 909 days ago

Akira is only good when playing less gritty teams -like Australia. When it is teams like South Africa, France, Ireland, Wales, England, he comes second best in most collisions. Simply re-watch the rugby championship and End of year tour 2021 games. Dalton Papalii should start at 6, and keep Luke and Ethan in the squad. Sotutu is good with the ball, but comes 2nd best in collisions off the ball like Akira. The best chance Pita Gus has is an injury replacement at the world cup, nothing sooner, and with the physicality of the game today, he might get that phone call

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Sam 909 days ago

If Papali'i is the in form player and doesn't get rewarded, it doesn't send a great message. Would be a real shame to see him go overseas, and for other young players to learn that hard work doesn't always get you somewhere if politics get in the way

A
Andrew 909 days ago

Surely the disastrous Northern tour showed that lightweight no 8s dont cut it no matter shaf fine line kicks they possess (Soutu) or determination they show (Savea). Sowakula is a must ...now.

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Andrew 909 days ago

Im a Chiefs fan and even I wonder why Cane is an automatic selection anymore. Its surely now just between Savea and Papalii

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Spew_81 909 days ago

Is Cane the lead candidates to lock down the No 7 because he is the captain? If he was not the captain would Papalii be the lead candidate?

The question is can someone else be the captain? If so should Cane be in the team; he only plays one position? If he isn't, clearly the best 7, would Papalii's youth and versatility offer more?

Papalii would help balance the trio as he will add more size, height, speed and running ability. Papalii is a workhorse, just like Cane. So is the captaincy keeping Cane in the frame?

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RedWarrior 9 minutes ago
Three-way race to be number one in World Rugby men's rankings

IF SA and NZ win then its 1,2,3 SA/NZ/IRL Otherwise as you were. This is largely irrelevant beyond bragging rights.


As I have pointed out elsewhere the practical use of the Rankings is to determine the seedings bands for the RWC draw. The draw takes place early 2026 and hopefully the rankings will be taken from then.


Important to be in the top 6, the top 12. (and likely the top 4).

This is because there are now 6 groups in the RWC 2027.

If you are in top 6 you are in Seeding Band 1. That means none of the other top 6 will be in your group.

Seeding Band 2 are teams from 7-12, who will have a top 6 team but no other 7-12 team.

After England's defeat by NZ there is clear water between NZ in 3rd, France in 4th and England in 5th. England are desperate for top4, ill come back and explain why later.

Lets look at Seeding Band 1 and 6th place. If you make 6th, no top 6 team is in your group, you are top dog. If you win your group, you won't be facing a top 6 team in your 1/8th final, you will be facing a weaker team. If you fail to make 6th place you WILL have a top 6 team in your group and if you don't win your group you WILL (probably) meet a top 6 in the 1/8 final. That's massive.


Its Argentina holding 6th now. Assuming England hold 5th, then its a 4 horse race for 6th. Argentina, Scotland, Italy and ...Australia. (ranked 6,7,8,9)

Australia play the Lions in NH summer 2025 they are running out of time to get up to 6th for their own RWC. They MUST make a move now. They must beat Wales and they really must beat Scotland to gain points and take points off them. Could they surprise England or Ireland? England may be the better bet but Schmidt knows Ireland so well having masterminded their downfall in France.

Another one to watch is Italy V Argentina. Italy are ambitious and they will want to start pushing the likes of Argentina. If they win this they are still in the hunt. Well worth a watch either way.


Top4: I think the top 6 will be seeded, all the way through from the draw. If thats the case then the top 4 will be seeded to avoid each other until the semi. Good for more certainty around ticket sales etc. That's a possible reason why England want in there. You're not in there you are hitting a top 4 team in a QF. That's an extra 50:50 match you can do without and avoid by being top 4.


Lets look at what Seeding bands might look like with todays rankings:


Seeding Band 1

IRE/SA/NZ/FRA/ENG/ARG

Seeding Band 2

SCO/ITA/AUS/FIJ/WAL/GEO


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: FIJI

1/8 final opponent GEORGIA

Prognosis: advance to 1/4 and potentially beyond


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if NOT in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: SOUTH AFRICA

1/8 final opponent NEW ZEALAND

Prognosis: You know the prognosis


I am pretty sure this is not lost on Joe Schmidt?


Keep in mind when enjoying the matches.

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G
GS 1 hour ago
Are the All Blacks doomed to a 70% flatline?

The key is realising this AB side is not what they are now but what they will be in 2025/26.


You can already see a Power bench forming, and I would highlight that people watch the AB XV game vs Munster and watch Fabian Holland - he, in the next 24 months, will be WC and bring some huge physicality to the team.


Then, aligned with Peter Lakai, probably at 7, another WC talent, the AB pack by 2026 will probably both be starting and on the bench - be rated as No 1 or 2 packs in the world.


Then, there is the usual WC talent around the backline, and the missing link is Mo'unga. Unlike in last year's WC, the coming forward pack for the ABs, is similar to the Bok pack, It will be packed full of power, and the key to this is a realitively young pack.


So I think we will lose to Ireland and France in the coming weeks, but watch out as this pack builds into - I mean, look at the tight five and loose forwards that are coming for the ABs - De Groot, Lomax, Williams, Tosi, Taylor, Ofa T, Samson T, Aumua, Patrick T, Barrett, Vai, Fabian H, Setiti, Lakai, Savea, Frizzell (understand they are attempting to get him and Mo'unga back), Blackadder, Papalii and bar Barrett, Savea, Patrick T, Taylor - pretty young in international terms.


Huge front row starting and on bench, Power locks and usual class in loose forwards - only missing ingredient is a WC 10 and with Mo'unga back probably in 2026, these ABs are trending in a very healthy direction.

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