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Sonny Bill predicts more misery for Wales as ranking humiliation awaits

Warren Gatland, Head Coach of Wales shakes hands with Sonny Bill Williams of New Zealand after their respective last matches following the Rugby World Cup 2019 Bronze Final match between New Zealand and Wales at Tokyo Stadium on November 01, 2019 in Chofu, Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)

Former All Blacks centre Sonny Bill Williams has flagged more misery for Wales in Round 4 of the Guinness Six Nations – predicting Italy will defeat Warren Gatland’s men in Rome.

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If Italy beats Wales, the Azzurri will become the higher-ranked of the two teams for the first time since February 2013.

A win for Italy will see them climb three places and enter the world’s top 10 for the first time in a decade. Wales will drop out of the top 10 for the first time in defeat and could fall as low as 13th if the Azzurri beat them by a big enough margin. Alternatively, a Welsh victory will result in them climbing above Japan and into ninth place.

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Johnny Sexton is asked if this is the best Scotland side he has ever faced

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Johnny Sexton is asked if this is the best Scotland side he has ever faced

Williams clearly believes the former will happen, writing on Twitter: “Italy to beat wales [sic]. England gets the dub with the young gun Smith having a blinder. Ireland getting that grand slam [sic].”

Indeed Ireland will retain their top spot in the World Rugby rankings if they avoid a defeat against Scotland in the final fixture of the Guinness Six Nations at Murrayfield on Sunday, even if Les Bleus have won the previous day.

If France lose to England by more than 15 points at Twickenham on Saturday, and Ireland beat Scotland by at least the same margin, their lead could be extended to 3.09 points. In such a scenario, New Zealand and South Africa would move up one place, to second and third, with Fabien Galthie’s men falling to fourth.

However, if France beats Steve Borthwick’s side and Ireland loses, then France will replace Ireland as the world’s best team. Ireland cannot drop any lower than second place, but in a best-case scenario, Les Bleus can lead the rankings by 1.40 points.

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England could trade places with Scotland if they beat Les Bleus with any margin of victory or even a draw, as long as Scotland lose at home to Ireland the following day. However, if both England and Scotland win, England will only become the higher-ranked team if their victory is by more than 15 points and Scotland fails to match that margin.

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South Africa is currently ranked fourth and has more than five points than fifth-ranked Scotland. Therefore, even with a maximum of 2.26 points on offer for a home win, Scotland cannot improve on fifth place. Meanwhile, England is guaranteed to retain the sixth place regardless of the result against France.

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J
JW 5 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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