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Springboks' Welsh discovery after 'a proper Six Nations analysis'

(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

Jacques Nienaber has insisted he hasn’t bought into the doom and gloom currently surrounding the soon-to-tour Wales team, the Springboks boss instead outlining the dangers that Wayne Pivac’s squad pose to his South Africa side. The 2021 Guinness Six Nations champions came a cropper in the recent championship, winning just one match to finish fifth and becoming the butt of numerous jokes when beaten in Cardiff by Italy.

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That was the first win for the Italians in the tournament since 2015 and it massively dented the reputation of the Welsh under Pivac. However, Springboks coach Nienaber has formed a very different view having reviewed the entire five-match championship played by Wales and he is taking nothing for granted ahead of the three-Test series that begins in Pretoria on July 2.

Taking some time from the training week in Pretoria to host an online midweek media briefing, Nienaber unloaded his thoughts about written-off Wales and specified exactly why he doesn’t share the pessimism that had surrounded Pivac and co since March.

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Marcell Coetzee previews Bulls v Leinster URC semifinal

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Marcell Coetzee previews Bulls v Leinster URC semifinal

“If you look at our history with Wales, in my mind I believe it is going to be a tightly contested series. Last year, the end of year tour was the first time we actually pulled off a victory in Wales since 2013. I’m not sure about the dates but it was quite some time. It was something like eight years.

“And then if you look at our last couple of outings since I have been with the Boks since 2018, we lost in Washington, we lost on the end of year tour, then we got a victory in the World Cup semi-final and it was a penalty, that was the difference. If you look at the last game last year, we only got scoreboard pressure on Wales, not even pressure we just got control of the scoreboard on 72 or 73 minutes.

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“So Wales will be a tough one, especially for us. They know how we play and we have got a pretty good idea of how they play and it is always an arm wrestle. The interesting thing for me on Wales when I did a proper analysis of them from the Six Nations, everyone will remember the loss to Italy but the French, who actually won a Grand Slam, scored three points in the last 70 minutes of that Test match.

“They were 10-3 or 10-0 up after ten minutes and they won it 13-9 so that gives you the quality of Wales, that they can push that French side. And the same for England, when Wales played them at Twickenham they were 17-0 down with 20, 30 minutes to go and England won that game by just five points, 24-19 or something like that. I’m under no illusion that it is going to be a proper series.”

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Nienaber currently has 17 players with him at the Springboks preliminary preparation camp, players whose club seasons are already over, and with Wales having no representatives in the final eight of the URC season, he is expecting them to be very well prepared by the time they fly into South Africa for the Test series.

“What I can tell you about Wales is they always bring a physical edge, their set-pieces are always well-coached and also the defence off set-pieces are well-coached and then they are tactically smart. When they last played us they had a good kicking game, they pinned us down in our half so there are certain things that you have to focus on and it is always a scrappy affair against the Welsh, it is always an arm wrestle.

“Since I came back in 2018, we got well beaten on the end of year tour where there was a ten-point margin between the two sides but all the other games, it’s two points, three points. That is what they will bring, they will bring physicality, they will bring pride, they are willing to take it to the gutters if they have to, they can open it up if they want to, so that is the intensity they will bring and they will bring a well-coached side that will have four weeks preparation time with their coaches.

“They will be well prepared and they will have made their plans for us with their club sides not making the playoffs of the URC. They are already in camp and preparing for us so they will be well prepared.”

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T
Tom 4 hours ago
What is the future of rugby in 2025?

Briiiiiiiiiiiiiiiistol! Briiiiiiiiiiiiiiiistol! Briiiiiiiiiiiiiiiistol!


It's incredible to see the boys playing like this. Back to the form that saw them finish on top of the regular season and beat Toulon to win the challenge cup. Ibitoye and Ravouvou doing a cracking Piutau/Radradra impression.


It's abundantly clear that Borthwick and Wigglesworth need to transform the England attack and incorporate some of the Bears way. Unfortunately until the Bears are competing in Europe, the old criticisms will still be used.. we failed to fire any punches against La Rochelle and Leinster which goes to show there is still work to do but both those sides are packed full of elite players so it's not the fairest comparison to expect Bristol to compete with them. I feel Bristol are on the way up though and the best is yet to come. Tom Jordan next year is going to be obscene.


Test rugby is obviously a different beast and does Borthwick have enough time with the players to develop the level of skill the Bears plays have? Even if he wanted to? We should definitely be able to see some progress, Scotland have certainly managed it. England aren't going to start throwing the ball around like that but England's attack looks prehistoric by comparison, I hope they take some inspiration from the clarity and freedom of expression shown by the Bears (and Scotland - who keep beating us, by the way!). Bristol have the best attack in the premiership, it'd be mad for England to ignore it because it doesn't fit with the Borthwick and Wigglesworth idea of how test rugby should be played. You gotta use what is available to you. Sadly I think England will try reluctantly to incorporate some of these ideas and end up even more confused and lacking identity than ever. At the moment England have two teams, they have 14 players and Marcus Smith. Marcus sticks out as a sore thumb in a team coached to play in a manner ideologically opposed to the way he plays rugby, does the Bears factor confuse matters further? I just have no confidence in Borthers and Wiggles.


Crazy to see the Prem with more ball in play than SR!

3 Go to comments
J
JW 8 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

In another recent article I tried to argue for a few key concept changes for EPCR which I think could light the game up in the North.


First, I can't remember who pointed out the obvious elephant in the room (a SA'n poster?), it's a terrible time to play rugby in the NH, and especially your pinnacle tournament. It's been terrible watching with seemingly all the games I wanted to watch being in the dark, hardly able to see what was going on. The Aviva was the only stadium I saw that had lights that could handle the miserable rain. If the global appeal is there, they could do a lot better having day games.


They other primary idea I thuoght would benefit EPCR most, was more content. The Prem could do with it and the Top14 could do with something more important than their own league, so they aren't under so much pressure to sell games. The quality over quantity approach.


Trim it down to two 16 team EPCR competitions, and introduce a third for playing amongst the T2 sides, or the bottom clubs in each league should simply be working on being better during the EPCR.


Champions Cup is made up of league best 15 teams, + 1, the Challenge Cup winner. Without a reason not to, I'd distribute it evenly based on each leauge, dividing into thirds and rounded up, 6 URC 5 Top14 4 English. Each winner (all four) is #1 rank and I'd have a seeding round or two for the other 12 to determine their own brackets for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. I'd then hold a 6 game pool, home and away, with consecutive of each for those games that involve SA'n teams. Preferrably I'd have a regional thing were all SA'n teams were in the same pool but that's a bit complex for this simple idea.


That pool round further finalises the seeding for knockout round of 16. So #1 pool has essentially duked it out for finals seeding already (better venue planning), and to see who they go up against 16, 15,etc etc. Actually I think I might prefer a single pool round for seeding, and introduce the home and away for Ro16, quarters, and semis (stuffs up venue hire). General idea to produce the most competitive matches possible until the random knockout phase, and fix the random lottery of which two teams get ranked higher after pool play, and also keep the system identical for the Challenge Cup so everthing is succinct. Top T2 side promoted from last year to make 16 in Challenge Cup

207 Go to comments
J
JW 13 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I had a look at the wiki article again, it's all terribly old data (not that I'd see reason for much change in the case of SA).

Number Of Clubs:

1526

Registered+Unregistered Players:

651146

Number of Referees:

3460

Pre-teen Male Players:

320842

Pre-teen Female Player:

4522

Teen Male Player:

199213

Teen Female Player:

4906

Senior Male Player:

113174

Senior Female Player:

8489

Total Male Player:

633229

Total Female Player:

17917


So looking for something new as were more concerned with adults specifically, so I had a look at their EOY Financial Review.

The total number of clubs remains consistent, with a marginal increase of 1% from 1,161 to 1,167. 8.1.

A comparative analysis of verified data for 2022 and 2023 highlights a marginal decline of 1% in the number of female players, declining from 6,801 to 6,723. Additionally, the total number of players demonstrates an 8% decrease, dropping from 96,172 to 88,828.

So 80k+ adult males (down from 113k), but I'm not really sure when youth are involved with SAn clubs, or if that data is for some reason not being referenced/included. 300k male students however (200k in old wiki data).


https://resources.world.rugby/worldrugby/document/2020/07/28/212ed9cf-cd61-4fa3-b9d4-9f0d5fb61116/P56-57-Participation-Map_v3.pdf has France at 250k registered but https://presse-europe1-fr.translate.goog/exclu-europe-1-le-top-10-des-sports-les-plus-pratiques-en-france-en-2022/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp has them back up at 300k registered.


The French number likely Students + Club, but everyone collects data different I reckon. In that WR pdf for instance a lot of the major nations have a heavily registered setup, were as a nation like England can penetrate into a lot more schools to run camps and include them in the reach of rugby. For instance the SARU release says only 29% of schools are reached by proper rugby programs, where as the 2million English number would be through a much much higer penetration I'd imagine. Which is thanks to schools having the ability to involve themselves in programs more than anything.


In any case, I don't think you need to be concerned with the numbers, whether they are 300 or 88k, there is obviously a big enough following for their pro scenes already to have enough quality players for a 10/12 team competition. They appear ibgger than France but I don't really by the lower English numbers going around.

207 Go to comments
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