Super Rugby Pacific: Chiefs still title favourites, wooden spooners almost certain

The RugbyPass Round Table writers answer the big questions at the mid-point of the Super Rugby Pacific 2025 season. Finn Morton (FM), Henry Lee (HL), Ben Smith (BS), Ned Lester (NL) weigh in on who the favourites to take the title are at the halfway point as well as the competition’s likely wooden spooners.

Which team will win Super Rugby Pacific 2025? (Favourites)

BS: Despite being tipped up in Sydney by a strong Waratahs side last week, the Chiefs remain the favourites to claim the Super Rugby title. After finishing as runners up the last two seasons, Clayton McMillan’s team has the roster to go one further in 2025.

They sit in second place with a 6-2 record but they need to recapture that early season form down the stretch where they came out of the blocks fast. They were able to put over 40 points on both the Crusaders and Brumbies, two of the strongest teams in the competition.

Wallace Sititi has been a big loss for the Chiefs this season with a long-term knee injury. However, they haven’t ruled him out completely of 2025 so maybe, just maybe he can return when it matters.

There is no denying the Crusaders have risen fast into title contention with the best back three in the competition, but the Chiefs are the side that can trouble them with their power game. The two sides to beat the Crusaders this year, the Chiefs and Moana Pasifika, have a strong power game that can bully.

Despite having four teams in the top six, no Australian side can win the title without home field advantage. They have been strong at home, but one of them would need a top two finish to get a path to the final.

FM: Much like Thanos, there is something inevitable about the Crusaders.

Those fans who don’t call Christchurch home thoroughly enjoyed the downfall of the serial Super Rugby champions in 2024, who slumped to a shock ninth-place finish at season’s end. But that feels like a long, long time ago now.

If rugby fans take the time to have an honest look in the mirror, every single one of us expected a Crusaders revival this season – a belief that was married with a sense of almost dread and fear.

The Crusaders are the team that most love to hate, but even the team’s harshest critics have had no choice but to sit back in awe this season. While few expected the ‘Saders to be title favourites deep into the campaign, it doesn’t feel like a complete surprise now that they are.

Last week against the Hurricanes, the Crusaders delivered a vintage performance for the better part of 65 minutes. Hooker Ioane Moananu led the way with a double, and All Blacks skipper Scott Barrett also stood tall, during a 31-3 run that stunned the Canes.

But that’s just one performance. Big wins over the Reds, Force, Blues and Drua have also seen the Crusaders rise into the all-important status as competition favourites. It’s a familiar position for the team, who seem to be getting better and better each week.

Meanwhile, the Waratahs secured an incredible upset win over the Chiefs in round nine. Damian McKenzie struggled big time while Lawson Creighton and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii starred in front of a vocal Sydney crowd – unfortunately, a sign that the Chiefs are slightly off the pace.

NL: The Chiefs are leading Super Rugby Pacific in the areas that matter most.

They’re incredibly efficient defensively, scrum well, retain their ball and Damian McKenzie is the best goal-kicker in the comp. The team have scored the third-most points this year and have conceded the least.

Beyond the numbers, the Chiefs have been genuine title contenders since Super Rugby Aotearoa was a thing so their squad are familiar with the big stage. 

But, above all else, what this writer believes will push the Chiefs over the edge this season, in particular, is the impending departure of head coach Clayton McMillan.

Chiefs mana is a real thing and when the furnace of the Super Rugby Pacific playoffs reaches its hottest and most punishing, the respect the players have for their coach will shine through.

The Crusaders and Brumbies are in the conversation, but their defence has been underwhelming and it’s hard to trust a team with below average tackle percentage in the playoffs.

The Reds have also put their name forward with strong defence, but average discipline and the worst lineout efficiency in the comp are big concerns for a team that haven’t proven to be as potent of an attacking threat as the other contenders.

HL: Chiefs, they should and likely will win the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific competition.

They have the best depth in the competition, and not just depth, but quality through their squad. Head coach Clayton McMillan has had the luxury of resting his All Blacks throughout the first nine rounds of the competition and hasn’t lost any quality at the same time.

The Hamilton-based side has conceded the least amount of points in the competition (202) and how does the saying go? Defence wins championships.

The resurgence of Quinn Tupaea, the comeback of Samisoni Taukei’aho, power of Samipeni Finau paired with the world-class quality of Tupou Vaa’i and Damian McKenzie, have helped the Chiefs blow teams off the park, and win tight contests when games are close.

A slight blip in Sydney against the Waratahs could be what they needed, to motivate them to a first Super Rugby title since 2013.

Which team will take the wooden spoon in 2025?

BS: The Drua and Moana have been seriously impressive in 2025 but it’s the same old story with both at the bottom of the ladder. Moana are two games clear of the Drua so the Fijians are now the favourites for the spoon with a 1-7 record.

It’s an unjust situation for a team that has knocked off one of the top two sides, beating the Chiefs at home in round four. They lost by four points at home to the Brumbies, by four points to the Hurricanes in Napier and five points to Waratahs in Sydney.

They’ve been more than competitive but results just haven’t gone their way. Despite winter approaching, they have four home games remaining and one away trip to Queensland which will be quite pleasant. They’ll need to go a run to catch Moana and win the derby when they face off in week 11.

FM: It’s almost impossible not to like Moana Pasifika. The team’s social media presence is up there with the best in the competition, painting a really positive picture of the Pasifika side, who genuinely seems tight-knit and determined to succeed.

While the idea of having a ‘second team’ is blasphemous in sport, most rugby fans have a soft spot for Tana Umaga’s Moana side who have shown signs of growth. Beating the Crusaders in Christchurch and the Hurricanes in Albany have been highlights.

Moana sit second-last on the ladder with a 3-5 record. Wooden spoon front-runners the Fijian Drua sit eight points back – yet it seems to be a two-horse race between the relatively recent expansion sides to avoid a last-place finish.

Still, that eight-point buffer is likely too much to overcome, with the Drua shaping up as the probable recipients of the spoon. They still have home matches against the Waratahs, Reds, Blues and Force to come, but may only be seen as favourites before the Force fixture.

Taking a look at Moana’s schedule, which is also incredibly challenging, is somewhat irrelevant because the Drua will struggle to reach 15 competition points or more. Their fate is already sealed it seems.

NL: Glen Jackson is having a nightmare first season as head coach of the Fijian Drua. 

The team are conceding a whopping 36.4 points per game, comfortably the worst mark in the comp, and own as many losses as they do competition points. 

Moana Pasifika are second to last on the table but have double the competition points of the Drua. Remarkably, the win over the Chiefs remains the Drua’s only victory of the year.

The Fijians are a bottom-three-ranked team in metrics across the board. And yet, to their credit, they still make linebreaks as well as anybody.

HL: Fijian Drua, unfortunately, their away record is just not good enough. The Drua always battle hard, fight to the end and showcase their spectacular skills, but their lack of a solid platform and set-piece has cost them. They haven’t won a game outside of Fiji since the 25th of February in 2023 against Moana Pasifika at Mt Smart Stadium.

Glen Jackson’s side still has the opportunity to upset some teams and shake up the competition’s playoff spots, but they’ll likely have to settle for last place unless they start closing out games away from Lautoka and Suva.