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Stat chat: How the Super Rugby Pacific finalists stack up

Rivez Reihana of the Crusaders and Damian McKenzie of the Chiefs. Photos by Joe Allison/Getty Images and Phil Walter/Getty Images.

There is only one major statistical category in which the Crusaders have outperformed the Chiefs in 2025, but no one beats the storied club on its home soil. So, who’s the favourite to lift the silverware?

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The Super Rugby Pacific grand final is here, and it’s the best of the best squaring off in a contest where both sides have plenty of reasons to feel confident.

25 capped All Blacks have been named across the respective matchday 23s, with a handful of fringe prospects also looking to make their mark.

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      The Chiefs had two statement wins over the Crusaders in the round-robin stages, and while the teams ended the season with the same record, with just three losses from 14 games, it’s the Hamilton-based outfit that scored more points and conceded fewer than anyone in the competition.

      The Crusaders, though, have owned the playoffs for the better part of the last decade and have proven to be all but invincible at Apollo Projects Stadium.

      Here’s how they stack up statistically in 2025.

      Head-to-Head

      Last 5 Meetings

      Wins
      2
      Draws
      0
      Wins
      3
      Average Points scored
      25
      31
      First try wins
      60%
      Home team wins
      80%

      Attack

      These are two efficient attacking outfits, the two most prolific point scorers in Super Rugby 2025. But, even with that being the case, the gap between the Chiefs’ points average and the Crusaders’ is still wide.

      The Chiefs scored more than five points per game more than the Crusaders this season, despite claiming the same number of tries per game.

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      On the surface, this is one of the biggest separators between the two teams; the Chiefs make just shy of 80 per cent of their attempts off the tee count, while the Crusaders have made just 65 per cent of their kicks – the second-worst mark in the competition.

      However, that figure from the Crusaders is suffering a hangover from the inexperienced boot of Taha Kemara, who is no longer active for the Cantabrians following a season-ending knee injury. Saturday’s starter, Rivez Reihana, is the most accurate of the trio of playmakers the Crusaders have deployed in 2025, making 75 per cent of his attempts on a smaller sample size. Reihana has attempted just a third of the kicks Damian McKenzie has this season.

      The Chiefs play with the ball the most of any team in 2025, as evidenced by them making the most passes per game and ranking in the top three for carries, carry metres, linebreaks, defenders beaten, and offloads.

      The Crusaders don’t beat the Chiefs in many attacking metrics, but have comparable numbers when it comes to offloads.

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      The Chiefs make a competition-leading 11.1 entries into their opponents’ 22, and while the Crusaders only make 8.9 entries, they are 10 per cent more likely to score a try once in close-striking range.

      The Crusaders are twice as likely to score off a turnover, while the Chiefs are slightly more likely to score off of set piece.

      Related

      Defence

      These teams tackle at the same rate of 88.2 per cent, but the Crusaders make 40 more tackles per game than the Chiefs, making their number more impressive, but also meaning they miss more attempts. This tackle rate puts both teams in the top six across Super Rugby Pacific, TOP 14, Gallagher Premiership, and United Rugby Championship.

      As is the case with attack, the Chiefs own the better stats when it comes to opponent 22 entries, allowing just 7.6 entries per game compared to the Crusaders’ 9.9. And, as is the case on attack, the Crusaders are more effective once backed into their 22, conceding a try 34.6 per cent of the time compared to the Chiefs’ rate of 41 per cent.

      The Crusaders made 93 per cent of their 218 tackle attempts in the semi-final against the Blues, including a superb final stand that repelled dozens of phases from the desperate reigning champions.

      The Chiefs made 89 per cent of their 195 tackle attempts in their semi-final against the Brumbies. Both finalists had less possession than their opponents in those games.

      Fixture
      Super Rugby Pacific
      Crusaders
      16 - 12
      Full-time
      Chiefs
      All Stats and Data

      Set piece

      The Chiefs’ scrum is the most effective in the competition, with the best rate of scrums won via penalty for both attacking and defensive efforts.

      The Crusaders are as accurate in the lineout as anyone, and this area is the one that stands out as one of the biggest advantages for the hosts. The Crusaders are three per cent more successful in the lineout than the Chiefs.

      The Chiefs are far more efficient with their 22 exits, despite having a similar tactical approach when it comes to kicking more than running the ball out.

      Both sides had five scrums in their semi-finals, but the Crusaders opted for 23 lineouts, 11 more than the Chiefs, as the Blues conceded five more penalties than the Brumbies.


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      Comments

      14 Comments
      J
      JW 34 days ago

      Very interesting 22 balances Ned, thank you.


      You have to wonder if the Crusaders pull off another win what we really have as an All Black coach.


      That said, Chiefs should be to strong again, but the lost the last two saying that šŸ˜…

      S
      SadersMan 34 days ago

      None of this matters at kickoff. Just as it didn’t matter when the Blues beat the Chiefs in the Hamilton Qualifying Final two weeks ago. Talk about a pre-game statistical mismatch heavily in favour of the Chiefs, am I right?


      Bring it on!!!!

      B
      BA 34 days ago

      Been the most impressive team this year so stats not a surprise …but u dead right doesn’t mean a lot for tomorrow night

      G
      GP 35 days ago

      I back Crusaders 10 Rivez Reihana big time. He has played so well since coming on in Dunedin. He has shown he has a big match temperament. Also he is playing against his old team, the Chiefs.

      I
      Icefarrow 34 days ago

      I’d back Reihana, but Hotham has not impressed whatsoever with his kicking game this season. Incredibly poor, and he’s starting to making rash and stupid decisions under pressure these finals.

      W
      Wiseguy 35 days ago

      I think he is shaping up to be the main difference between the two teams. The Chiefs have a slight statistical advantage in most areas but in reality with home advantage I think the Crusaders will match up well. The main area I see the Chiefs having an advantage is in the halves. Hotham hasn’t lived up to the hype yet and Reihana is unproven. He did play well last week though.

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