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Stick or twist for the Premiership's bottom seven in Europe?

Sinoti Sinoti of Newcastle Falcons. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

The third and fourth rounds of European competition are now upon us and with arguably the most competitive relegation battle in the professional era, is it time for certain Gallagher Premiership clubs to cash in their chips and turn away from Europe for the season?

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Despite rumours being rife that the Premiership could ringfence as soon as the end of this season, which has now become an almost annual tradition, there will be significant concern at a number of clubs, with just four points separating the bottom seven sides.

Saracens and Exeter Chiefs are safe, as, it would seem, are Gloucester, and although only nine points separate Wasps and Harlequins from the bottom, they are probably, as stands, comfortable with that level of breathing room. From Bath down, however, it is a very different story.

Bath, Bristol Bears, Leicester Tigers, Worcester Warriors, Northampton Saints, Sale Sharks and Newcastle Falcons all have some very interesting selection decisions to make over the next two weeks, before they head back into a three-week block of Premiership fixtures.

In the Heineken Champions Cup, Bath are winless from their opening two fixtures and face a more than testing back-to-back with reigning champions Leinster. They have just registered James Wilson and Ruaridh McConnochie to their squad, so there are no signs they are looking to take their foot off the pedal, but if they lose the first match, which is at the Rec, it could prompt some squad rotation in Dublin, before they head back to the Premiership to meet Wasps.

Leicester picked up a win and a try bonus point in their opening two fixtures, leaving them with five points and still a solid shot at topping the group or picking up a best runners-up spot. Their back-to-back is with Racing 92 and starts in Paris on Sunday. The club’s Premiership form has been poor, but it would be a shame to see a side of their stature give up on Europe so quickly, especially with a decent shot of still qualifying and a comprehensive victory over the Scarlets already in the bag.

Newcastle are the final side of that bottom seven to be in the Champions Cup and having won their two opening games, away in Toulon and at home to Montpellier, there really is no case to be argued here. Their lowly Premiership position is a combination of a gruelling fixture list to start the season, as well as the club being off the boil, but now that they are picking up points and results in the Premiership, this Champions Cup position is too good to pass up. Their back-to-back versus Edinburgh will not be easy, but it could leave them with very little left to do to qualify come January, should they go well over the next two weeks.

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Watch: Charles Piutau ruled out from representing Tonga at next year’s Rugby World Cup.

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The Challenge Cup is a slightly different proposition, with a couple of these sides opting to rotate players right from the opening round, with Worcester and Sale particularly prominent in that.

That said, both clubs recorded two wins from their opening two games and showing faith in younger players has really paid off for them in Europe. There’s no reason to change that approach now and another couple of impressive performances in the Challenge Cup could have these youngsters really pushing for a spot in the Premiership towards the end of the month.

The story isn’t quite so clear cut for Northampton or Bristol, though.

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Saints were handed the unenviable task of facing off against Clermont Auvergne in their group and there are realistic questions to be asked of how much value do they put on trying to push for one of the best runners-up spots? They went with recognised, strong line-ups versus Clermont and Dragons to start the tournament and they now have the opportunity to rotate against Timisoara Saracens, give some of the front-liners a week or two off, and still stay in contention, whereupon they can re-evaluate their position in January.

As for Bristol, it’s tough to definitively say what is a ‘full-strength’ line-up for the club, as they’ve been very effective and proactive in rotating their squad so far this season. Having split the games with Zebre and now facing the difficult challenge of La Rochelle home and away, it could be time to give some more minutes to guys that they’re not necessarily going to be relying on come the return of the Premiership. That return sees them take on Sale away and Newcastle at home, games that could well be viewed as the cliched eight-pointers come the end of the season.

Bath, Northampton and Bristol certainly shouldn’t consign themselves to European exits, but given the challenges they face, a slight adjustment of strategy could be the right path as we head into rounds three and four.

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J
JW 2 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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