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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 3.
Round 2 was a bad week for the Super Rugby Oracle. Our usually-reliable tipper was made to look very ordinary by the Reds, Blues, Highlanders, Brumbies and Bulls, who all defied predictions to lose their games. His record for the season has slumped to 11/18 or 61%. It can only get better this week.
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Chiefs vs Hurricanes (Hamilton)
Hang onto your hats, as they don’t get a lot better than this. Whoever wins it will be top of the table – elementary, as both have perfect records at the present time – and both have played very well in different fashions to get there. The Hurricanes have slaughtered a couple of bottom feeders, while the Chiefs have two tough wins over fellow New Zealand sides already in the book. Both have been ruthless for the most part, and each would say they’ve had one slack 20-minute spell in two matches, which is not bad at all. This game is extraordinarily hard to pick because of the two wildly differing buildups but I might lean towards the Chiefs, simply because they’ve already had two hard games and have had to get their patterns right in a hurry. As far as I’m concerned, it will be a must-see and a no-better.
Pick: Chiefs
Brumbies vs Force (Canberra)
A week ago I would have picked the Brumbies, possibly by plenty, and moved on without wasting too much time over it. But given how the Force hung in against an admittedly error-prone Reds side and how the Brumbies let the Sharks back into their game, it may not be that easy. However, at Canberra … and after the Brumbies have probably had a decent kick up the backside … I have to say the home side has a lot more improving in the tank than the visitors and if they don’t get this one there will be some very harsh words in Saturday morning’s papers.
Pick: Brumbies
Blues vs Highlanders (Auckland)
This promises to be the second excellent New Zealand matchup of the weekend. Neither side is off to a perfect start or anything like it, but both are offering enough to suggest they’re not far away from getting it right. I think we can expect to see most of the heavies starting for the Blues this week rather than being on the bench – fair enough keeping the faith after that first big win, but these guys are a cut above the Rebels. The Highlanders meanwhile will be hoping they don’t lose too many more top-line forwards over the next couple of months. The loss of Ben Smith also takes a big strike weapon out of the visitors’ backline and those big midfielders in the Blues might make more holes than they leave open. I’m prepared to back the Blues again – they’re at home, they’re doing a lot of little things right and they are a dangerous outfit. But keeping 15 men on the park would be a big help.
Pick: Blues
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Reds vs Crusaders (Brisbane)
This has become a bit of a one-horse race in the 21st Century. The Reds won three of the first four (pre-2000) but since then the Crusaders have won 16 of the remaining 19. Many of those wins have come in Brisbane, and often in draining heat and humidity, so the conditions will be foreign but not unknown. While the Crusaders haven’t played at their best until the last half hour at Dunedin, that 30 minutes was highly impressive and it was something the Reds have not yet done anything to suggest they would have an answer for. I’m picking the Crusaders here, and they could win by a fair bit.
Pick: Crusaders
Kings vs Stormers (Port Elizabeth)
The Kings played with a reasonable degree of accuracy in Singapore but that was against the Sunwolves – the Stormers are a lot better. In fact, they’re looking pretty good, and have blown teams away before halftime in both rounds to date; even if the scoreboard hasn’t necessarily shown a big margin, their style, speed and dominance has been enough to close the deal. Given the forward might in the Cape Town crew, you have to pick them to win by plenty here, and it must be a game they’ve tagged as five points on the hoof.
Pick: Stormers
Cheetahs vs Sunwolves (Bloemfontein)
Last time the Sunwolves went to Bloemfontein they bled 92 points as the Cheetahs ran amok. On the evidence of a pretty decent first 40 last week another big score could be in the offing for the home side. Some of the rugby they displayed against the Bulls (who aren’t the worst side going round) was fast, accurate and difficult to combat. The Sunwolves made little or no progress against the Kings for most of their game, and gave up soft points off turnovers again; if they let those Cheetahs backs feast on spillings it could get really ugly really quickly. The only thing that would make me trim a forecast of a large Cheetahs win would be Franco Smith playing silly buggers with his team selection. If his best players start, they should get a hefty victory.
Pick: Cheetahs
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Sharks vs Waratahs (Durban)
The Sharks probably feel a lot better about life after Round 2, hanging tough to wear down the Brumbies in a match they could have lost on several occasions but ended up winning. The Waratahs tried hard to stay in the contest at Johannesburg but couldn’t, despite collecting five tries and playing some good rugby. Two things came out of last weekend that might be hugely influential this week: the Waratahs’ tendency to give away penalties (and inability to stop lineout drives), and the Sharks willingness to take three points almost every time they’re on offer – if they have to get 27 by kicking nine penalty goals, so be it. I thought the Sharks were good last week and their tough guys put in big shifts; whether the travel will have drained them is a big question but in the hot, sticky Durban weather I’m picking them to grind out another close win.
Pick: Sharks
Jaguares vs Lions (Buenos Aires)
Last year the Lions let this one go and it arguably cost them the title. This year I doubt they’ll be so laissez-faire about the trip to Argentina. They’ve looked pretty good to date, and Rohan Janse van Rensburg is about as good a midfielder as any side can put on the park, so this is an area of major advantage to the visitors. Up front the Jaguares are travelling quite well but so are the Lions, and I think the Lions are sharper behind the scrum just now. While it won’t be a blowout, I can see the Lions getting home by maybe ten points here.
Pick: Lions
TL;DR: Chiefs / Brumbies / Blues / Crusaders / Stormers / Cheetahs / Sharks / Lions
