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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 5.
A solid Round 4 for the Oracle with only the Brumbies getting in the way of an otherwise perfect week. With 7/8 correct picks his season record is up to 24/34 or 71%.
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Crusaders vs Force (Christchurch)
After a string of come-from-impossible-position wins you can bet the Crusaders won’t want to try that particular stunt for the fourth week running. Two reasons exist for that: one, they should never fall 20 points behind the Force to begin with, and two, if anyone gets that far back of the Force the game will be shut down and turned into a scrappy, error-ridden affair that makes a big revival impossible. It won’t happen, and unless Scott Robertson plays the fool with his team selections the home side should be good enough to win by 20 and not spot the opposition that sort of lead.
Pick: Crusaders
Rebels vs Waratahs (Melbourne)
On recent showings, this game could simply be pig-ugly. The Rebels were always going to struggle this season but the Waratahs should be a great deal better than they are; one gets the impression they’ve been treading water waiting for Bernard Foley to return and they’ll be three times the team once he has. He is back on the team list for this week, so I expect the Waratahs to start playing like a real rugby team and give the Rebels a hiding.
Pick: Waratahs
Blues vs Bulls (Albany)
Now free of New Zealand opposition, the Blues should feel a whole lot better about themselves. They’ve lost their last two games rather than the opposition winning them, but those teams are better than the Bulls who have, frankly, been disappointing. They have the potential to be a lot better than they are, but until things start to click and basic errors are eliminated, it will only be potential. This is a game the Blues should win by a bit; if they can play with the same purpose as in the first half at Christchurch and keep going for 80 minutes it could be well worth watching.
Pick: Blues
Brumbies vs Highlanders (Canberra)
Here’s a chance for Stephen Larkham to extract his revenge for getting robbed last year in the quarter-finals. Actually, the Brumbies were as boring as hell in that game, playing for penalties and yellow cards that were not forthcoming because Angus Gardner is too good a ref to get suckered in by all the screaming and arm- waving. It’s hard to get a handle on the Brumbies at present; they should have won the two games they lost and deserved to win the two they did, although the opposition was mediocre. The Highlanders are better than 1-3 but have a never-ending injury toll to contend with. I’ll wait till I see who’s fit and who is not, but I have a feeling that the visitors might just be stretched a little thin. Much as I hate to say it, I can see the Brumbies winning here.
Pick: Brumbies
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Sunwolves vs Stormers (Singapore)
Short and sharp here: the Stormers will win by a lot. They are a lot better than the Sunwolves, especially up front, and I can’t see any way the hosts should be able to stay with their visitors.
Pick: Stormers
Kings vs Lions (Port Elizabeth)
For a prediction here, just copy the one above and change names as appropriate. The Kings play a spoiling type of game, trying to stay close and hoping for the best. The Lions play an expansive sort of game, saying ‘Stay with us if you can’. Most teams cannot. The Kings certainly won’t. Notwithstanding a wet day or a Lions B team, expect a 30-plus margin.
Pick: Lions
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Cheetahs vs Sharks (Bloemfontein)
While neither side has been setting the world on fire, the Sharks have been a lot better than the Cheetahs and despite their limited attacking repertoire, I find a fair bit to like in what they do. They don’t try to play above their limits. They don’t take many risks. They don’t make many mistakes. They can make teams pay for errors. Rugby 101 maybe, but it is the best plan they have and it’s working. The Cheetahs will leave too much ball lying around against a side like the Sharks, who will likely strangle them slowly. It could be ugly, but the Durban loyal won’t care.
Pick: Sharks
Jaguares vs Reds (Buenos Aires)
Given how poorly the Reds played at Johannesburg, and the fact they’ll be without Quade Cooper, and may also be without James Slipper, you could write your own ticket on them at the bookies this week. The Jaguares are cynical and scrappy at times, but they are also a test team and starting to play like one. It should be three in a row for the South Americans, and three by fairly solid margins at that.
Pick: Jaguares
TL;DR: Crusaders / Waratahs / Blues / Brumbies / Stormers / Lions / Sharks / Jaguares
