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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 6.
The Oracle has got his groove back after a shaky start to the season, registering 7/8 correct picks for the second week running in Round 4. That brings his season record to 31/42 or 74%. Can he nudge it over 75 there this week?
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Highlanders vs Rebels (Dunedin)
The Highlanders have occasionally had issues with the Rebels, but only because they didn’t take the game seriously. Given what happened at Canberra last week, and how well the team played (and how Tony Brown kept his guns on the field until the match was won rather than dragging them all with 20 to go), you get the impression they won’t be making that mistake in Dunedin. The Rebels played well enough against the Waratahs, but still managed to lose from what should have been an unlosable position. So, quick and easy: I think the Highlanders will win, win well and maybe even turn on a show.
Pick: Highlanders
Blues vs Force (Auckland)
Previewing this game could be done in a few words. The Blues should win and win well; if they can get that rusty first 40 minutes out of their systems it could be well worth a watch (assuming the Auckland weather, which is now into ‘change of season’ mode, plays ball). The Force couldn’t cope with the Crusaders rumbling them to death last week but face a whole bunch of different problems with the Blues. The biggest one is that if, true to form, they insist on kicking the ball away all evening it could be coming back fast and hard regularly. And tries could follow, also regularly. The Blues have it in them to win this one by plenty; if their hands are up to the task, they will.
Pick: Blues
Chiefs vs Bulls (Hamilton)
There was nothing in the Bulls performance at Albany to suggest they have any means of coping with the Chiefs, especially as their hosts are coming off a bye and therefore won’t feel the need to rest their guns. Anything the Blues did in the second half the Chiefs can do just as well. And they can do it in the first half as well. Despite the Bulls pack being pretty good I think they’ll get taken apart; the Chiefs are too fast, too slick and too good. That call is semi-dependent on the weather, which will curb the margin if it’s too wet, but not alter the result.
Pick: Chiefs
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Reds vs Hurricanes (Brisbane)
These games, especially at Brisbane, can be difficult for the New Zealand sides. Having said that, the Hurricanes will still win – they have been too good for everyone bar the Chiefs so far; as well as being too good, they’ve racked up huge numbers of tries and points. The Reds huffed and puffed after winning their opener, but since then they would struggle to win a raffle if they held all the tickets. They have little imagination, they’re not fast of thought or foot and they certainly won’t beat the Hurricanes by turning the ball over all day. The visitors should win this one by plenty and probably turn on some dazzle along the way.
Pick: Hurricanes
Stormers vs Cheetahs (Cape Town)
The weekend’s first game not involving a New Zealand team should still see the favourite at very short odds, but I expect the Stormers won’t be unbackably short. The Cheetahs play some good footy in patches but intersperse it with moments of pure carelessness which really hurt, and they struggle against a big and accurate pack – which the Stormers have. The home side also left its two most influential forwards at home when they made the jaunt to Singapore, and few teams have a lock pairing to match Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit. The Cheetahs certainly don’t, no matter how well Francois Uys happens to play. Fred Zeilinga’s goal-kicking may be the Cheetahs biggest weapon; the all-round speed and strength of the Stormers will be theirs. Speed and strength should win out by 10-15 points.
Pick: Stormers
Lions vs Sharks (Johannesburg)
This deserves to be classified as match of the round, because these are two good teams and both are getting the job done, albeit in different ways. The Lions are a spread it wide, catch us if you can, doesn’t matter if you score 25 because we’ll score 45 type of team, and very effective at it. The Sharks are bloody-minded, aggressive, physical, committed and good at winning kickable penalties and then turning them into goals. They’re also very effective at their style. They’ve both won four from five on merit, and I hope this match gets a dry day and a decent crowd, because it deserves both. While there’s plenty to respect about the Sharks, I like watching the Lions and the way they attack every game; I also think they’re the better team for modern conditions but they’ll have to work hard to win this one. I think we can be certain that it won’t be over at halftime.
Pick: Lions
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Waratahs vs Crusaders (Sydney)
The Crusaders have a good record at Sydney, which is not something a lot of overseas teams can claim. They have a historical whip hand in this match and, you can be sure, someone in Sydney will raise the spectre of 2002 at some time during the build-up. The 2017 Crusaders could never put up a score like that, but they can batter this Waratahs pack into submission and probably will. If they can scrum properly this week and not concede penalties and men to the bin, they have all forward bases covered. The Waratahs have two of the three best individual backs but the Crusaders can all tackle, even if they can’t cut teams to bits. Anything other than a comfortable Crusaders win will be a shock; even if they played badly I doubt the visitors could lose this one.
Pick: Crusaders
TL;DR: Highlanders / Blues / Chiefs / Hurricanes / Stormers / Lions / Crusaders
