1
Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 4.
The Oracle bounced back from a shocker in Round 2 to pick a respectable 6 from 8 last week. That makes it 17/26 or 65% for the season, and that number looks likely to climb back up over 70% after this week. Trust the Oracle.
ADVERTISEMENT
Crusaders vs Blues (Christchurch)
Neither participant in this match comes in on the back of particularly compelling form; the Blues lost on Saturday when that was probably tougher than winning and the Crusaders, for the second time in following weekends, had to recover from a yawning deficit (this time it was 0-17 not long before halftime) – a feat they managed with the last kick of the game. The Blues died by their own hands; they were congenitally incapable of catching high kicks and it hurt. I suspect Edward Scissorhands would have done a better job. At least he might have burst the ball. Both teams have problems within their own remit to fix, but I’m going with the Crusaders this week – with another late winner.
Pick: Crusaders
Rebels vs Chiefs (Melbourne)
This one should be easy. If the Chiefs concentrate and don’t leave too many stars out of the side, and don’t take the Rebels lightly, and don’t play silly buggers and do stupid things, they’ll win by the length of Collins Street. A glance at previous results shows that they have a history of cruising in this game, but even so, they should be far too good for what has looked an ordinary Rebels outfit. If they’re on, the Chiefs will win by 40-plus; if not, about ten.
Pick: Chiefs
Bulls vs Sunwolves (Pretoria)
The Sunwolves got close to the Cheetahs, but that was because the Cheetahs let them. There is no way the Sunwolves should be beating up at the set piece, or forcing as many errors as they did, or creating panic in the ranks which we saw once or twice. The Bulls haven’t started the season well, so I get the feeling someone is going to pay, and soon. Handre Pollard has to come right – it’s starting to happen – and if he catches fire things could go round very quickly. I won’t be staying up to watch this one, but I do expect the Bulls to win by plenty.
Pick: Bulls
Hurricanes vs Highlanders (Wellington)
The Highlanders are losing players like the 2010 North Korean World Cup soccer team at the moment, but the ones they have left really dug it in last Saturday. It was a gutsy, far-from-stylish win that was a credit to the team but put another couple of stars in the MASH tent. The Hurricanes found out how a real team plays last weekend and, for an hour, they battled. Things came right towards the end but it was too little too late, although I did feel that no bonus point was perhaps less than their due. I’ll have the Hurricanes here, on the healthy bodies count, but also because they shouldn’t make as many fundamental errors as the Blues did.
Pick: Hurricanes
[rugbypass-ad-banner id=”1473723684″]
Waratahs vs Brumbies (Sydney)
Neither side has looked the part this season – for two of the stronger Australian sides, they’re both playing more like the Kings’ sparring partners. The Waratahs at least have a little imagination with the ball in hand and occasionally it works out; they’re really missing Bernard Foley and will be crossing off the days until he’s back. For a team that has supposedly talented players in the backline, the Brumbies are remarkably reluctant to trust them with the ball. If Stephen Larkham ever took the handbrake off they might be a decent outfit; I still can’t believe such a talented player can be such a tightwad as a coach. Forecast: A dire game that the Waratahs will win because the home team always wins this game. It’s written in the stars.
Pick: Waratahs
Lions vs Reds (Johannesburg)
Back home after that pain-in-the-arse trip to Buenos Aires, the Lions will be keen to get back into the high veldt atmosphere where kicks sail on forever and visiting teams run out of gas. The Reds will not want any of those things, but they have to suck it up. The Reds should really be 3-0, but they’ve blown two very winnable games in the last two weeks and if they were ever going to give the Crusaders a hiding Saturday was the day. How much of a hole that has punched in their psyche we’ll have to wait and see, but it must have induced some navel-gazing. The Lions will believe they can win this one and win it well; I believe that too and would have 10-15 points in the end because I think the visitors’ trolley might collapse in the home straight.
Pick: Lions
ADVERTISEMENT
Sharks vs Kings (Durban)
Sharks to win, and win well. Simple. But I am looking forward to the clash in the loose forwards, and Chris Cloete going head-to-head with Jean-Luc du Preez. I’d even buy a ticket to watch those two.
Pick: Sharks
Jaguares vs Cheetahs (Buenos Aires)
If the Jaguares continue to play as they did last weekend, they’ll have way too much for the Cheetahs. They looked like a test team which, of course, is what they are. The Cheetahs looked just good enough to get home over the Sunwolves. There’s a world of difference. Unless the weather really sucks the Jaguares should win by 20, but knowing them they’ll make it bloody tough on themselves by doing all sorts of dumb things.
Pick: Jaguares
TL;DR: Crusaders / Chiefs / Bulls / Hurricanes / Waratahs / Lions / Sharks / Jaguares
