Super Rugby Oracle: Blues or Chiefs? Every team to back in Round 2

Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 2.

The tipping season got off to a consistent start last week with 7/9 correct calls – only coming unstuck with the Chiefs upsetting the Highlanders and the Stormers holding off the Bulls. With some hard-to-pick matchups in Round 2, we need Paul’s prescience now more than ever.

Force vs Reds (Perth)
An interesting match to open the round – hardly the high-profile game you would expect for a Thursday night fixture. The Force hung pretty tough in Sydney in tricky conditions, but beyond the hour mark never really threatened to win the game. Meanwhile, the Reds had to overcome a strong defensive-minded effort from the Sharks before getting the points in humid heat that made handling tough. Of the two efforts the Reds delivered the better one – they were prepared to have a go and to keep trying things until they made one work. The visitors should win this game with something in hand, and both teams would prefer better conditions that they had last weekend.
Pick: Reds

Chiefs vs Blues (Hamilton)
One of two matches fighting for the title of match of the round, and a tough one to call. Set piece, turnovers, goal- kicking, defence – there’s not much difference in any of the key stats for this game. The Blues are on a 10-game losing run against the Chiefs – their last win was back in 2011 – but don’t overlook that they have taken consolation points from seven of those ten matches. I’m sure they know how important it is to start winning a few against local opposition, as it’s the only thing holding them back in the playoff race these days. I’d prefer to do some fence-sitting here but I’m going to go against the bookies (who have the Chiefs as the 5.5 point favourite) and pick a one-score Blues win.
Pick: Blues

Hurricanes vs Rebels (Wellington)
This shouldn’t take much time. The Rebels lost by 38 points at home to the Blues, while the Hurricanes won by 66 on the road at the Sunwolves. Okay, the Sunwolves are terrible but the Hurricanes only played for 60 minutes and then went to sleep. The Rebels did much the same as the Sunwolves – when they missed a tackle, the Blues made big inroads; when they made a turnover, it was costly… The Hurricanes will probably start all the guns this week, and should win by a lot. If they don’t bank five points inquests will be held.
Pick: Hurricanes

Highlanders vs Crusaders (Dunedin)
The second of the intra-conference matches in New Zealand offers a number of intriguing possibilities. One is that both sides will be looking to sharpen their attack, as neither side was all that impressive at finishing despite living in opposition territory last week. And neither will want to be as generous as they were in Round 1: the Highlanders gave away 17 points through two interceptions and a really dumb penalty, while the Crusaders left points on the kicking tee and conceded ten in the only five minutes when the Brumbies came to play. Both packs went okay, but the acid here will be on the backs to get it done. Even without Ben Smith, who is out for at least a couple of weeks, I think the Highlanders should get it done – but there is already real pressure on some of their big guns to deliver a lot more than they did against the Chiefs.
Pick: Highlanders

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Brumbies vs Sharks (Canberra)
These two are very similar in style, outlook and week one results, so this is a tough match to pick. Both could have won their games last week but needed to do more – the Brumbies played for five minutes after halftime and the Sharks really sat back after scoring off a first-minute turnover. Neither showed much faith in its back division and neither pack was as good as 12 months ago. Historically Canberra has been a difficult place to go and win, especially for South African teams, and that’s the main reason I’m looking at the home side.
Pick: Brumbies

Sunwolves vs Kings (Singapore)
It’s only round two and here we go: the match that could decide the eventual wooden spooners. The Sunwolves were ghastly in week one and should have gone for something near 120, while the Kings couldn’t do anything against a very limited Jaguares outfit and the score only got close thanks to two tries in the last five minutes. As both teams are – for perhaps the only time all season – playing a team about their own level, that should at least make it close. The betting agencies favour the Kings and I agree with that assessment, but I wouldn’t be putting anything on this match at all since either side is liable to go down in a ball of flames at any time.
Pick: Kings

Lions vs Waratahs (Johannesburg)
Another match that pits two teams whose week one report card read ‘Must do better’. The Waratahs were limited against a moderate Force; the Lions were moderate against a limited Cheetahs. Both matches played out in front of small first-up crowds but both teams won, so it wasn’t all bad. The Lions probably offered more but didn’t finish – they were certainly two or three steps below their 2016 form – and the Waratahs showed a distinct lack of playmakers without Kurtley Beale or Bernard Foley on the field. I’m taking the Lions in this one – first time out back at Ellis Park and all that – and they should be good enough to win by ten.
Pick: Lions

Stormers vs Jaguares (Cape Town)
This match 12 months ago was one of the worst of the season, and the Stormers, in particular, will be looking for a much better performance and result. Given the way they played against the Bulls, especially in the first spell, that’s no impossible dream. While their first round scorelines were similar, the Stormers were miles ahead on performance and were playing against a much tougher opponent, so I’m picking the Cape Town faithful will have another good win (and a bigger one) to cheer this week.
Pick: Stormers

Cheetahs vs Bulls (Bloemfontein)
On paper, you might think the Cheetahs were the better-performed team in week one, but those are alternative facts. The Cheetahs did enough to hang around against a very average Lions outfit that was nothing like its predecessor of a year ago, while the Bulls had to do a lot of regrouping at halftime after being shaken and shocked, and then battered and set upon, by a lightning-fast Stormers opening. That they did so was a credit, but the game was already gone before they got started. Victor Matfield wrote in his book that the Bulls should never lose to the Cheetahs. Victor, I’m with you on this one.
Pick: Bulls

TL;DR: Reds / Blues / Hurricanes / Highlanders / Brumbies / Kings / Lions / Stormers / Bulls