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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for the weekend’s games.
Congratulations to the Southern Kings on beating the Waratahs in Sydney last weekend and ruining the Oracle’s round. Taking the draw in Durban on the chin meant 6/8 correct picks for the week – 53/71 for the season – the Oracle’s overall success rate holding firm at 75%. Here’s what Round 10 has in store.
Highlanders vs Stormers (Dunedin)
A very interesting match to start the weekend. The Highlanders will be fielding a close to full-strength squad for this one. We’ve seen over the last two or three years that means they scrap and fight for everything, no matter how tough it may be. The Stormers weren’t 33 points off the pace last week – they copped a few rough decisions and by the time the game settled down the Crusaders were long gone. This is almost flip a coin territory – I think the Stormers are a good side but I’m still going to take the home side by one score, and hope they can hang onto the ball this week. Makes life a lot easier.
Pick: Highlanders
Chiefs vs Sunwolves (Hamilton)
Unless the Chiefs are jetlagged to the max and/or play their 2nd XV, they should win this one by plenty. Unfortunately for the Sunwolves, any possible complacency would have been knocked out of the Chiefs by their fairly shabby display at Perth, where it took them all their time to beat what is a very limited Force side. The Sunwolves got dusted off by the Highlanders – again a couple of iffy decisions went with the home side just before halftime – but they have had no answer to any of the New Zealand sides they’ve faced this year when the guns are on the field. If the Chiefs run their big men out and pay attention to the details, they should win by 50.
Pick: Chiefs
Reds vs Waratahs (Brisbane)
Remember when this was one of the year’s most eagerly-awaited clashes? Believe it or not, the Reds, who sit 14th on the table and have hardly played a solid 80 minutes this season, are the favourites to win. The Waratahs are 16th, and playing even worse footy. Daryl Gibson might be on a knife-edge in Sydney but he should remind his players that he can take some of them with him if they don’t pull finger. I have no idea who is going to win this one, as both teams should be way better than they have been. I might run with the Reds simply because they look less of a rabble than the Waratahs at present.
Pick: Reds
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Force vs Lions (Perth)
This is another of those games that will depend on how the heavily-favoured side scrubs up after travel. The Force are tough at home – they stuck with the Chiefs last week through a combination of poor play by the visitors and some real home-town refereeing. I thought 16-7 was way too close and that 20-0 would have been a much fairer score (try to Cruden instead of one penalty, and Hodgson’s try ruled out). The Lions had to work against the Jaguares but got it done; they should have far too much for the embattled home side and if they’re on their game the visitors should be 20 points the better.
Pick: Lions
Cheetahs vs Crusaders (Bloemfontein)
This is the third game of the weekend that should be heavily in favour of one side over the other, but travel and the possible resting of a significant number of first-string players may just mess with that. The Cheetahs are a side capable of holding stronger opponents for a while, but they shouldn’t be able to stay with a side like the Crusaders over 80 minutes. What the visitors don’t want is to take the game lightly and find themselves even with 20 to go, because those games can become very difficult to win. Assuming the Crusaders treat it properly, they should jump out to a good lead early enough to give all the second-stringers a decent run and still win comfortably.
Pick: Crusaders
Kings vs Rebels (Port Elizabeth)
How on earth are you supposed to guess what’s going to happen here? These are two of the weakest sides in the competition yet both have taken points off sides that should have thumped them in the last two weeks. The Rebels sneaked in against the Brumbies a fortnight ago while the Kings toppled the Waratahs. In both cases they were aided by their opponent playing down to their level. The Kings try to play an expansive game and are dangerous when they can get the ball wide; their outside backs have a heap of speed and probably more than the Rebels can match. If the Kings can get that ball moving, they should take it comfortably. But if it stays untidy and around the forwards, I’d pick the Rebels to win. I’ll flip a coin – it’s one of those games.
Pick: Heads (Kings)
Jaguares vs Sharks (Buenos Aires)
The trip to Argentina is a pain in the butt for the South Africans. They have to make a long, tiring journey just for one game, and so far nobody has done it and returned unscathed. Given how the Sharks played last week they won’t break the mould; they were bloody awful against the Rebels and sheer stupidity cost them more points than they managed to score. Back in the Jake White days they would have won that match 24-9, eight penalty goals to three, but this time they tried to become some attacking force when they couldn’t even hold a grudge. The Jaguares are boring at times but generally effective, and it will take some significant improvement for the visitors to get home in this one. I can’t see it – I’m having the Jaguares by 10-15 points.
Pick: Jaguares
Brumbies vs Blues (Canberra)
Top of the Australian conference versus bottom of the New Zealand conference – but both have identical season records (won 3, lost 5, 17 points). The Blues will be primed for this match – they can’t win against local opposition but they don’t have too many issues with Australian teams. In fact they haven’t lost a trans-Tasman match since 2015. I thought the Brumbies weren’t actually 35 points worse than the Hurricanes last Friday, rather the Hurricanes took every single chance and made a few from nothing. In reality, the two teams were an almost an even match on the stats sheet, just not the scoreboard. The Blues need to get going if they harbour any playoff aspirations, especially if the Highlanders win earlier in the round, and I’m picking the visitors to get this done narrowly – but they have to be at least as good as they were against the Hurricanes a couple of weeks back.
Pick: Blues
In brief: Highlanders / Chiefs / Reds / Lions / Crusaders / Kings / Jaguares / Blues
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