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Super Rugby Oracle: All the picks for Round 13

Beaver (Photo: Getty Images)

Our Super Rugby stats guru offers his tips for the weekend’s games.

A round of low-scoring upsets interfered with the Oracle’s prediction senses last week resulting in a below-par 4/7. With an overall record of 71/95, his season remains at the 75% mark. Here’s what Round 13 has in store…

Chiefs vs Crusaders (Suva, Fiji)

If you wanted to start the week with a bang, this is the way to do it. Between them these teams have suffered just one loss and won 20. I suspect this will come down to one question: can the Chiefs do a better job of standing up to the Crusaders forwards than the Hurricanes did? If the answer is no, things could get skittery out the back; if the answer is yes, the Chiefs are a fair shot at winning. It’s been hard to get a handle on how the Chiefs are tracking at the moment since it’s been more than a month since they played any serious opposition. I’ve been a little reluctant to pick the Crusaders at times this season as I’ve felt they’re overachievers, but after a while you have to start believing what your eyes are telling you. Overachieving doesn’t happen 11 times in a row. So I’ll have the Crusaders in this one, which means a fiver on the Chiefs might be money well spent!
Pick: Crusaders

Stormers vs Blues (Cape Town)

This is the other clash of the round for me. It’s not so vitally important for home playoff chances, as the Stormers will get one berth as the Africa 1 table-toppers and the Blues won’t be in the hunt, but it is important for the Blues if they’re to stay in what is a frenetic race for the wildcard spots. The Blues have played five of their six New Zealand conference games already (where else did you think the five losses have come from), and a win here would go a long way towards putting the Highlanders under increasing pressure. I’m tempted to pick the Blues here because their graph is on an upward trend and the Stormers are heading the other way, but the visitors will have to be close to their best 2017 form in order to get the job done.
Pick: Blues

Hurricanes vs Cheetahs (Wellington)

Unhappy with getting a hiding at Christchurch (despite the close-ish score, that was a hiding on the run of play) the Hurricanes will be looking for someone to kick around this week and the Cheetahs might just be that side. Given that their defence has major failures in almost every game and the Hurricanes have shown the ability to punish anyone not absolutely top-class, Saturday could be a long night for the visitors – and if the forecast is accurate, a cold and wet one too. Even with a lousy weather forecast, you’d expect the Hurricanes to win easily.
Pick: Hurricanes

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Force vs Highlanders (Perth)

If this game was being played anywhere but Perth, I’d pick the Highlanders without a second thought. But they have a moderate record in the West, and a moderate record overall against the Force. God knows why, but they do. That said, the visitors have commanded all sorts of games in the last couple of months; they’ve won as front-runners, making huge comebacks, under the roof, in the Invercargill chill, in the Pretoria wet … there’s not much they haven’t overcome lately. I think Tony Brown will need Aaron Smith for a lot of this game; as long as he doesn’t have a complete nightmare the visitors should get it done with a degree of comfort.
Pick: Highlanders

Sunwolves vs Sharks (Singapore)

The Sharks will be fuming after losing to the Kings and won’t want to make another cock-up against a cellar-dweller this week. The Singapore field is well under regulation size, but the Sharks are one of the few teams who will adjust to it quite easily. They are happy to grind up front and will kick goals – Garth April might be a threat from his own 10m line in that stadium. The Sunwolves will try and run the Sharks around but the lack of pitch width may hurt that ambition and I doubt they have enough muscle up front. I’m picking a Sharks win, but it might be harder work than many think. Ten points would be the most I’d allow.
Pick: Sharks

Lions vs Bulls (Johannesburg)

This is the start of the home stretch for the Lions. They have to keep winning – and preferably with bonus points – at Ellis Park against a string of mediocre opponents to keep the Crusaders under pressure for home field. This shouldn’t be too hard against the Bulls, who have not been anywhere near what I expected this year and who won’t get within a bull’s roar of a playoff spot. The Lions are too good, too fast, too clever and too well coached to stuff this one up – but some of their players, who have been on the go for 15 months or more, might need careful handling in the next few weeks.
Pick: Lions

Kings vs Brumbies (Port Elizabeth)

I can’t believe I’m going to write this: the Australian conference-topping Brumbies go into a match against the South Africa 2 scrubs as decided underdogs for mine. Given the way the Kings have played in the last three or four weeks, the Brumbies had better watch out because they will get burned from a long way back if they’re careless, while their plodding style of attack won’t scare the Kings at all. This year the Kings have found the tackle bags and learned to trust one another on defence, and it’s working. Assuming Lionel Cronje is at only 80% of what he did last week, I think the Kings might win quite comfortably.
Photo: Kings

Waratahs vs Rebels (Sydney)

This could be bloody ugly. Even moderately enjoyable might be asking too much. And yet leadership of the Australian conference and fourth place on the ladder could depend on the result. I really can’t think of nice things to say about either side, so I won’t insult your intelligence. I do think the Waratahs will be less bad, and therefore will win. I’m not holding my breath.
Pick: Waratahs

In brief: Crusaders / Blues / Hurricanes / Highlanders / Sharks / Lions / Kings / Waratahs

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Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 2 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
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