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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for Round 7.
After flirting with perfection for the previous two rounds the Oracle finally went all the way last week, tipping a perfect round. 7/7 brings his season record to 38/49 or 78%. Let’s see if he can keep rolling in Round 7…
Hurricanes vs Waratahs (Wellington)
The Hurricanes have been killing teams this year with their speed and ability to get the ball into space. If they hadn’t had the rub of the green against them and taken a little more care at Brisbane they would have won by 50+ as they created so many opportunities but finished very few. The Waratahs were more or less worth what they got against the Crusaders on Sunday. The one issue may be the weather, which has been awful over the central part of New Zealand this week. It shouldn’t change the result, but it will make the Hurricanes work harder for what should be a comfortable win.
Pick: Hurricanes
Sunwolves vs Bulls (Tokyo)
If the Bulls play anything like as well in Tokyo as they did in Hamilton, they’ll have little trouble winning this game. Their aggressive defence rattled the Chiefs, who are a lot better than the Sunwolves, and for the first time all season the Bulls showed signs of waking up. The Sunwolves have surprised at odd times; their attack is okay but the defence still leaks badly and the Bulls can and will find the holes. Last year the men from Pretoria struggled at Singapore; playing at Tokyo will suit them better as the pitch is bigger, and they should be good enough to win comfortably.
Pick: Bulls
Highlanders vs Blues (Dunedin)
The Highlanders won at Eden Park a few weeks ago when they had absolutely no right to do so. Since then the Blues have started making numerous errors, particularly with their hands, that have been something of a handbrake. On the flip side the Highlanders have used that win as a springboard and put together two good wins against Australian teams since; the Canberra win was tough and last week the Rebels were dispatched in clinical style. I think I have to favour the southerners here, as they’re the team with an upward trend to their performance graph, but I wouldn’t be rushing off to place a bet on it.
Pick: Highlanders
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Brumbies vs Reds (Canberra)
The Brumbies win this fixture almost by royal decree. The Reds have a dire record against the Brumbies and it’s worse at Canberra than at Brisbane. In recent seasons the margins have been fairly wide too, so it has to be said the Canberra crew have the Reds’ number. While the Brumbies play dreary, unimaginative football it is planned and hard to defend if you’re not quite on the pace, and they should be just that little bit more precise than the Reds. I have no doubts the home side will win, and they might have ten or so points in hand by the end.
Pick: Brumbies
Sharks vs Jaguares (Durban)
This one is tricky to pick. The Jaguares have been formidable in Argentina so far this year – which is what we expected to see 12 months ago – but they have hardly been tested on the road. The Sharks, likewise, have been going well, apart from two narrow losses, and are yet to lose at home. They don’t take many backwards steps and now with Curwin Bosch capable of kicking monster goals, no lead can be considered safe. I’m going for the home side, narrowly, simply because they have impressed me a little more in the last two or three weeks if we ignore a poor effort against the Kings.
Pick: Sharks
Stormers vs Chiefs (Cape Town)
This has the potential to be the match of the round. As it was last year in the first playoffs, this is the moment of truth for the Stormers. They’ve run up some good wins in the first month and put some big scores on the board, although the Kings, Sunwolves and Cheetahs are hardly scary opponents. I’ve been impressed with a bit of what the Stormers are up to but there is always that niggle that says if they try to play ad-lib against the Chiefs it could all end in tears very quickly; they can get very loose and skittery under pressure. I think there are enough holes in the Stormers game to interest the Chiefs, but they’ll have to play well to expose them. The clash of the locks should be a highlight; you probably won’t see better all season. I’m going with the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs
Force vs Kings (Perth)
Neither of these teams is playing particularly well over the first six rounds – or going down with all guns blazing when they fall short – but the Force did go well for lengthy parts of Saturday’s game at Auckland. I’m going to take the home side here. I think they’ll try to do simple things well and repeat until dizzy; if they’re accurate that should be too much for what is a pretty frail Kings side.
Pick: Force
TL;DR: Hurricanes / Bulls / Highlanders / Brumbies / Sharks / Chiefs / Force
