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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for the Easter weekend.
The Sunwolves’ unforeseen triumph over the Bulls in Tokyo last week tripped up every Super Rugby tipster under the sun, The Oracle included. That result along with the Stormers win over the Chiefs left him with a 5/7 week; 43/56 for the season, still a sterling 77%. Here’s what Easter weekend has in store.
Crusaders vs Sunwolves (Christchurch)
One suspects the Crusaders, unbeaten and in second place, might be too strong for the Sunwolves, with one win and currently sitting in 17th. Throw in the psych-out factor of this being the Sunwolves first game in New Zealand and against the most storied franchise of the all, and this game might be decided before they get on the field. Still, the Crusaders probably can’t afford to take the Mickey – but the return of Kieran Read should put a stop to any nonsense. I can’t see any possible reason for the Crusaders to drop this one and, unless the pitch is flooded, they’ll win it easily.
Pick: Crusaders
Reds vs Kings (Brisbane)
After the Reds’ opening round win over the Sharks most would have been inked this in as a five-pointer for the home side. But since then the Kings have had more wins (one) and on most weekends have played the better rugby. They were a bit helter-skelter at Perth last week and let go of a game a good team would have closed out, but they still played more attacking footy in 40 minutes than the Reds have managed all year. I think the Reds should win – but it might not be by a lot.
Pick: Reds
Blues vs Hurricanes (Auckland)
The match of the round in New Zealand, this will no doubt be like all the other matches between New Zealand sides. That is: rugged, extremely physical and not at all easy to win. It’s the Blues’ fifth match against New Zealand sides so far this season (currently they’re 0-4) and probably their most difficult yet. The Hurricanes have been so dangerous on attack this year that it’s hard to go against them. One thing I am sure of is that they won’t clock off at halftime this week as they did against the Waratahs. I can’t see the Blues winning it but I can see them making life very difficult for the defending champs for at least the first hour.
Pick: Hurricanes
Rebels vs Brumbies (Melbourne)
Until last weekend I would have said this game could be the best cure for insomnia marketed this year. After watching the Brumbies let their backs run against the Reds last weekend, I’ve changed my tune. If that happens again, they’ll cut the fragile midfield of the Rebels open on a regular basis and it could be an entertaining watch. If they go back to tried-and-true they’ll still have too much for the Melbourne side, but it will be a grind. I’m hoping for Plan A, and therefore picking the Brumbies to win by quite a bit.
Pick: Brumbies
Cheetahs vs Chiefs (Bloemfontein)
A comparison each side’s last outing (both against the Stormers at Cape Town) says all you really need to know about this match. The Cheetahs were beaten all over the park and the Stormers eventually ran up a half-century. The Chiefs also lost, but gave the Stormers plenty and opened their defence on several occasions. I know which game would have left the table-toppers more relieved to hear the final whistle. The Chiefs should win this by plenty, unless they play the fool with selections.
Pick: Chiefs
Stormers vs Lions (Cape Town)
The match of the round without any doubt. These two teams have been in great touch over the whole season so far. The Lions have lost once, when they sent an under-strength team to Argentina, and the Stormers are six-from-six on merit. Last weekend’s win over the Chiefs was really good; they played some excellent rugby on attack and defended stoutly when the call came. The Lions do the same, but are not quite as rugged when they’re not is possession. The Stormers are growing on me this year, but I’ve liked the Lions for the last couple of seasons. So in the heart vs head battle I think I’d pick the Lions, but in the real world? Maybe the Stormers by one score. But hang onto your hats, because it should be very good indeed.
Pick: Stormers
Bulls vs Jaguares (Pretoria)
The Bulls and Jaguares will both need to play out of their skins if they want to live up to the Stormers vs Lions game preceding them. Neither side plays with a great deal of adventure – the Jaguares can, but often don’t away from home – and neither impressed much last weekend when both lost winnable games. At the start of the season I thought the Bulls might do something. Well, they have, but it wasn’t quite what I thought. They’ve been pretty ordinary and lost to the Sunwolves despite dominating territory and possession. If the Jaguares could have caught the ball things might have been different, but 19 handling errors will kill any team. I’m going for the Jaguares here, but it could be quite ugly.
Pick: Jaguares
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TL;DR: Crusaders / Reds / Hurricanes / Brumbies / Chiefs / Stormers / Jaguares.
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