Super Rugby Oracle: The teams to back in Round 1

Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for the opening round of the season.

Last year we asked Paul to pick the winner of every game of Super Rugby. By the end of the season, he had correctly picked 112 of 142 games, or 79 percent. That could mean one of two things: either Super Rugby is a competition with a huge amount of predictable games, or Paul is some sort of rugby mystic. We believe the latter is at least half-true.

Rebels vs Blues (Melbourne)
This match-up has always gone the way of the home team, but that’s a trend the Blues will be wanting to break if they are to be regarded as a force in this year’s competition. After an off-season that saw the Australian side lose a lot more than it has gained, the visitors should have major advantages in the loose forwards and outside backs, while there really isn’t an area where the locals could reasonably expect to be decisively superior. Early-season matches tend to produce smaller scorelines than would be the case further down the track, but the Blues should still win – there will be serious questions if they don’t – with ten points or so in hand.
Pick: Blues

Highlanders vs Chiefs (Dunedin)
This is a huge game to be played so early in the season, especially as it is the only meeting between these sides in 2017. I’m going for the Highlanders to continue their run of dominance over the Chiefs here. Partly because they have the home advantage, but mainly because I think two guys named Smith have a wee bit to prove – Aaron will want to shut all the carpers up early, and Ben will want to show that NZ Rugby got a bargain when he re-signed). Those two blokes can take a game over and run it as they want. It will be tough and probably won’t be put on ice until very late, but I’m expecting a similar score to the two 2016 matches.
Pick: Highlanders

Reds vs Sharks (Brisbane)
Neither of these sides was up to much last year – the Reds guilty of making too many errors and the Sharks playing it far too negative. The Reds will try things, it just remains to be seen how well they can carry them out. The Sharks, you have to hope, will try more than they did last year, and I’m looking forward to seeing the du Preez twins in action because I think they’re pretty good footballers. I’m going to give it to the Reds by a few points, more on home advantage than anything else.
Pick: Reds

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Sunwolves vs Hurricanes (Tokyo)
If you were the Sunwolves and you knew the Hurricanes were on your fixture list in 2017, this is exactly the time and place you would want to meet them: first game of the season on an undersized pitch. That won’t stop the defending champs winning – they should do it easily – but it will limit the damage as combinations won’t be running smoothly just yet and those narrow fields are real attack killers. The Hurricanes should win with plenty in hand, but maybe not by quite the margin most are expecting.
Pick: Hurricanes

Crusaders vs Brumbies (Christchurch)
This is the most interesting match of the first round for me as it pits two sides I think will be on the bubble all season against one another. Both sides lost a bit of strike power in the off-season, but the Crusaders probably lost more with Nemani Nadolo moving on. Up front could be where the difference is: the Crusaders have a very sound and experienced pack, while the Brumbies, who played to the forwards almost all last year, are without Stephen Moore and David Pocock. I’m picking the Crusaders to do this comfortably – if they can hold the Brumbies forwards they will eventually get on top, and once that’s done there’s not much in behind for the visitors. The Brumbies have not won in Christchurch since 2000 and I don’t see enough evidence to suggest that streak will end on Saturday.
Pick: Crusaders

Waratahs vs Force (Sydney)
This is the first of a string of matches where a side which is favoured to do reasonably well in its conference runs into another that it really has to beat if it wants to make a serious tilt at the playoffs. The Waratahs occasionally have problems with the Force – take 2015, when the westerners doubled the defending champions off then didn’t win a game against anyone else until round 18. If the same thing happens this time I’d say Waratahs training next week will be nigh-on unbearable and a few new players will be starting in Round 2. The home side should be far too good, and if they concentrate and the weather remains okay I think they’ll get all five points.
Pick: Waratahs

Cheetahs vs Lions (Bloemfontein)
Like the Sydney game, this one sees a group favourite taking on the cannon fodder. Its pretty simple: the Lions should win, and win by plenty. The Johannesburg outfit was the best in South Africa by the length of the Orange River last year; the Cheetahs were better than the Kings but that’s about it. The raiders have been active in Bloemfontein as per usual with Lood de Jager now doing his thing in the middle of the Bulls lineout. Unless it’s pouring, or Johan Ackermann thinks they’re playing in Buenos Aires again, the Lions will get their season off nicely with five points on Saturday.
Pick: Lions

Kings vs Jaguares (Port Elizabeth)
The Jaguares should have been better than they were last year, and they certainly shouldn’t have lost in Port Elizabeth. But they weren’t, and they did. That said, if anyone loses to the Kings this year they need to be packed in a crate, from 1 to 23 and all the management, and taken off to the nearest vet for a series of swabs. The Jaguares should win by 30; if they don’t, I suspect neither side will be worth watching in 2017.
Pick: Jaguares

Stormers vs Bulls (Cape Town)
Perhaps the second match that might have a real influence on the final playoff qualification, this pits the two best teams from the weakest conference in 2016 against one another. Last year the Stormers occasionally played like a team that understood what they were about and at other times they were bloody awful. Meanwhile, the Bulls were in transition and never looked likely to get out of the pool stages. This year I think the Bulls tight five might surprise a few people and with Handre Pollard – who has to be the best player in South Africa these days – back at flyhalf they’ll have the control that was lacking almost all last year. If there’s going to be one to go against the betting agencies I think it will be this one: the Bulls start as outsiders, but I fancy them in this game, by a margin of about one score.
Pick: Bulls

TL;DR: Blues / Highlanders / Reds / Hurricanes / Crusaders / Waratahs / Lions / Jaguares / Bulls