Super Rugby starts here: The New Zealand conference's first round

In the first of a week-long series looking at each of the conferences, Scotty Stevenson previews every New Zealand team’s opening game in Super Rugby 2017.

Rebels vs Blues
Thursday February 23, 4:45pm HKT

It is rare for the Blues to start the season against a team from outside New Zealand, but history would suggest drawing the Rebels in the season-opener this Thursday plays into the Blues’ hands. Since 2000, the Blues have played just four non-New Zealand sides – all Australian – in round one of the competition, and have lost just once. That loss came in 2000 against the Brumbies.

Since 2000 the Blues have gone 10-7 overall on opening weekend, but 3-1 against the Australians. And, while the Rebels have home advantage at AAMI Park, it pays to point out that Blues have lost more opening games at home (4) than they have away (3).

A cynic may be tempted to wonder why the hell the opening game of the Super Rugby season features the teams that finished 11th and 12th on the ladder last year, but let’s not be cynical. These two sides have so many near identical stats  – tries scored, metres carried, passes completed, turnovers conceded – that this game could actually be one of the most entertaining spectacles of the round.

The Rebels won’t have impressive forwards Sean McMahon and Toby Smith, but dreadlocked loose forward Jordy Reid is a maniacal beast with absolutely no regard for his own safety, and the potential debut of league convert Marika Koroibete will ensure the game gets at least a column inch of coverage in the Australian press.

The Blues must take advantage of their superior attack structure. They should out-break, and out-offload the Rebels, who have been exposed in the past on half-breaks and line bends. If Augustine Pulu can impose himself on his opposite, Rebels skipper Nic Stirzaker, he can go some way to making life miserable for the Rebels backline.

Hot tip: The Blues will score through a grubber kick play.

Ones to Watch: Michael Collins, Reece Hodge

Telly Magnet Rating: 3/5

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Highlanders vs Chiefs
Friday February 24, 2:35pm HKT

There are so many things going for this match it is hard to find where to start. Screw it, let’s start with the fact this game is being played under the roof at Forsyth Barr Stadium, in front of the Zoo, during Otago University Orientation Week.

We could probably leave it at that, but in the interests of integrity we shall keep going.

The Highlanders have gone on a 6-match win streak against the Chiefs, which is no small feat considering the Chiefs have one of the best points-scoring averages in the competition over the last three seasons. The Highlanders played the Chiefs twice last year, winning 26-13 in Hamilton and 25-15 in Dunedin. To put that in perspective, the Chiefs’ average score during the season was 33.6 points per game.

In 2015, the Highlanders allowed the Chiefs just 17 points in Hamilton, 9 in Invercargill, and 14 in the Quarterfinal in Dunedin. Only twice in the last three seasons have the Chiefs scored more than 20 points against the Highlanders, and the 25 they scored in Dunedin in 2014 was still four fewer than the Highlanders got.

Chiefs coach Dave Rennie claims there is no hoodoo, and he’s probably right. When you have been limited by the Highlanders to less than 50% of your season points-scoring average in five straight games, you should immediately upgrade to voodoo.

Everyone loves the Highlanders (apart from the Chiefs, obviously) which has much to do with the fact they are the lovable rogues, the mongrel pups, the everyman entertainers of the New Zealand rugby system. In point of fact they are also the cold-blooded, criminally ruthless and robotically efficient war machine of a comically evil coach.

The Highlanders will: Kick the ball a lot. Scrum well. Make a competition-topping number of tackles per game. Score ridiculous tries that involve Ben Smith. Repeat.

Hot tip: The Chiefs will be penalised early for doing something that looks patently ridiculous, only to point out following the game that the referee got the law wrong, at which point the law will need to be adjusted.

Ones to Watch: Anton Lienert-Brown, Tom Franklin

Telly Magnet Rating: 5/5

Sunwolves vs Hurricanes
Saturday February 25, 12:15pm HKT

It will be a historic occasion with the first New Zealand team to play the Japanese franchise and it’s a very fan-friendly timezone from a Kiwi point of view, but – and there’s no easy way to put this – the Sunwolves will get pumped like a bouncy castle.

Hot tip: Beauden Barrett will put in a cross-field kick for a try.

Ones to watch: Nehe Milner-Skudder, Fumiaki Tanaka

Telly Magnet Rating: a sentimental 3/5

Crusaders vs Brumbies
Saturday February 25, 2:35pm HKT

Given the history between these two sides, this should be the biggest trans-Tasman rivalry in Super Rugby. Alas, the very notion of a genuine ‘trans-Tasman rivalry’ is more anachronistic than anything approaching reality. The Brumbies tipping over the Crusaders at home on opening weekend could re-ignite something, though it is difficult to see that happening.

It is difficult to see that happening because the Brumbies have not won a game against the Crusaders in Christchurch since 2000, which is a long time ago. They have not won a game anywhere against the Crusaders since 2009, which has not done much to enhance this once fearsome face-off.

The Crusaders will do what they always do: make lots of breaks, throw lots of passes, offload from the deck and miss fewer tackles than any other side. One suspects they will do it with just a touch more pep in their step courtesy of having spent their first pre-season under the watch of new coach Scott Robertson. A new voice may be the tonic the veteran-laden Crusaders need to take that final step back to the winner’s podium.

The Brumbies would be advised to let the Crusaders have the ball a little more. Only the Blues spent more time last season in possession and in Super Rugby that can prove to be a bad decision. Teams that have success against the Crusaders tend to be those that make them play a lot of rugby, and from depth. The Brumbies have a good, physical pack that loves to hunt (no team forced more ruck turnovers last season and that abrasive approach won’t change this year) and finishers – Kuridrani, Speight et al – who know their way to the line.

Two pressure points in this game stand out: The Brumbies will need good decisions from their man in the ten jersey, especially considering Richie Mo’unga will invariably do the right thing for his side. The loose-forwards can ill-afford to make poor decisions over the ball. The Crusaders will bait Scott Fardy all night long.

Adding something special to this match will be the Brumbies’ desire to honour Dan Vickerman following the tragic death of the 37-year old former star in Australia over the weekend.

Hot tip: Seta Tamanivalu will fend someone in the face, and probably score a try.

Ones to watch: Chris Alcock, Jack Goodhue

Telly Magnet Rating: 4/5