The 13 likely survivors from the 2021 British & Irish Lions tour

Time and tide wait for no man. Age, form and injury suggest just a third of 2021 British & Irish Lions touring party will make the 2025 squad for the series in Australia.

The squad that toured South Africa has seen many of its numbers fall out of contention in the intervening years. Retirement, loss of form and persistent fitness issues have all taken their toll on Warren Gatland’s class of 2021. Potentially, as few as 13 of the original 42 will make the cut this time around.

Here we look at the 2021 touring party and run the rule over who will make Andy Farrell’s cut next year.

Hooker: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Jamie George, Rónan Kelleher, Ken Owens

Survivors: 1

It could come down to a straight shootout between Cowan Dickie and what will be a 35-year-old Jamie George to survive from the previous tour. The emergence of Dan Sheehan for Ireland hurts the unlucky Kelleher, who’s struggled with a spate of ill-timed injuries and is an outside bet to tour if he can’t get any game time. Ken ‘The Sheriff’ Owens has retired.

Prop: Zander Fagerson, Tadhg Furlong, Wyn Jones, Andrew Porter, Kyle Sinckler, Rory Sutherland, Mako Vunipola

Survivors: 3

Fagerson, Furlong and Porter are all likely to tour again, while form and age has respectively ruled out Sutherland, Jones and Vunipola.  Toulon-based Sinckler has said he hasn’t given up on Test rugby, although not being involved internationally means he’s admittedly a long shot for selection at this stage.

Second Row: Adam Beard, Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson, Jonny Hill, Maro Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones, Courtney Lawes

Survivors: 2

Beirne and Itoje will be the only survivors in the England room for the Lions. Henderson’s current position just behind James Ryan and Joe McCarthy for Ireland stands against him being selected, while Wales’ abysmal form makes it hard to select Adam Beard, who was something of a controversial choice in 2021 in the first place.

Brive’s Courtney Lawes has retired from international rugby, although a British & Irish Lions call-up isn’t unthinkable. Jonny Hill is no longer in the England picture and is yet to feature for Sale Sharks this season. The 6’8, 19 stone 3 Ibs second-row is currently dealing with an off-field matter with the police relating to an alleged incident with a Bath supporter in June.

Back Row: Jack Conan, Tom Curry, Taulupe Faletau, Josh Navidi, Sam Simmonds, Justin Tipuric, Hamish Watson

Survivors: 1

Tom Curry is the only likely 2021 tourist to make the 2025 party, provided he can stay fit. Jack Conan was one of the standout performers in South Africa, but injury and the fact he’s fallen behind Caelan Doris for club and country suggest he’ll struggle to make a case for himself in time for Australia.

Faletau’s age, his neverending injury woes and Wales’ dire form suggest a fourth tour might be beyond the Lions legend.

Navidi and Tipuric have retired [the latter from Test rugby] while it’s hard to see either Simmonds – who is playing in France for struggling Montpellier – or Watson – who has fallen out of Scottish contention – making the cut this time around.

Scrum-half: Gareth Davies, Conor Murray, Ali Price

Survivors: 0

Age and retirement will rule out Murray and Davies, while Ali Price losing grip on the Scotland nine jersey makes him a very long shot.

Fly-half: Dan Biggar, Owen Farrell, Finn Russell, Marcus Smith

Survivors: 3

Arguably three will survive, with Owen Farrell’s robust defence and ability to cover centre making him an asset despite his age and discipline issues. It could come down to how good Racing 92 go in this season’s Top 14. Admittedly, it’s not looking great for Stuart Lancaster’s side.

Russell and Smith are shoe-ins and Biggar has retired.

Centre: Bundee Aki, Elliot Daly, Chris Harris, Robbie Henshaw

Survivors: 1

While you could potentially see three surviving, we reckon it’ll be one of Aki or Henshaw making the plane in 2025.

Ireland favourite Aki will be 35 next summer, while the emergence of Jamie Osborne for Leinster and as a potential Test starter could mean significantly less game time for both the Connacht centre and Henshaw in an already congested Irish midfield.

Scotland’s Sione Tuipulotu is a must-take next year, while Ollie Lawrence, Garry Ringrose and Huw Jones will also be in the mix; meaning Farrell has plenty of options in midfield. Swiss Army knife Elliot Daly – who can cover three (maybe four) positions – is a long shot, having fallen out of favour with Steve Borthwick’s England (as a starter at least).

Chris Harris – a bolter in 2021 – is no longer in the Test picture for Scotland.

Wing: Josh Adams, Louis Rees-Zammit, Duhan van der Merwe, Anthony Watson

Survivors: 2

Scottish wing Duhan van der Merwe is a no-brainer to tour again while proven try-scorer Adams is still a good shout to be part of a small Welsh contingent next year. LRZ is playing American football while Anthony Watson is no longer in Test contention for England.

Full Back: Stuart Hogg, Liam Williams

Survivors: 0

On his day ‘Sanjay’ is one of the best fullbacks in the game but 2025 might be a tour too far for the Welshman, who is currently out of action with a knee injury. The question is can he get enough game time to beat Hugo Keenan, Blair Kinghorn or George Furbank to the two likely slots at 15?

There is zero chance Montpellier’s Hogg will go, for any number of reasons.