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The 2017 Six Nations Will Have an Effect on the 2019 World Cup

RWC 2015 draw

This year’s Six Nations is shaping up to be the most competitive for many years – and its results will have a direct impact on the next Rugby World Cup, writes James Harrington.

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There’s some extra spice to this year’s Six Nations – and it’s little to do with northern hemisphere rugby bragging rights, or the fact that this really could be the most competitive tournament for years … perhaps even, finally, living up to its self-promotional billing of ‘rugby’s greatest championship’.

What happens in the 15 matches over the next seven weeks in six European capitals will have direct and verifiable effects on events in a single room in Kyoto, Japan, on May 10.

That’s when the draw for the pool phase of the 2019 World Cup takes place.

It matters. Just ask England, Wales and Australia, who, thanks to the ranking system, were grouped together – disastrously for England – in the pool stage of the 2015 tournament.

The end-of-days make-up of that pool alone led to criticism of the timing of the draw, which was made in December 2012, a full two years and nine months before the tournament kicked off at Twickenham in September 2015.

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This time, the draw is closer to the actual event, slicing a whole six months off the lag between draw and competition. But it is still a long way out, which World Rugby says is to allow time for logistics and ticketing.

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As it stands, three of the four Rugby Championship sides plus Fiji could meet in the pool phase of Japan 2019. But it is very possible that the tournament could feature not one but two of those dreaded and cliched pools of death.

All the rugby talk at the end of 2016 – England and Ireland’s big year – was about how the gap between north and south, apparently a yawning chasm during the World Cup when the two semi finals featured the big four southern hemisphere nations, had closed.

Ireland claimed New Zealand’s scalp in Chicago in November, to add to victories over South Africa and Australia, while England’s 13-match winning run gained them more than 10 points in 12 months to leap six places and take an elephant bite out of the All Blacks‘ lead in World Rugby’s rankings.

World Rugby's rankings shortly before the 2017 Six-Nations kicked off
World Rugby’s rankings in the week before the 2017 Six Nations kicked off
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Thanks to their top-three pool finishes in the 2015 World Cup, all the Six Nations and Rugby Championship sides, as well as Japan and Georgia, are in the draw. Fiji, currently 10th in the standings, have yet to qualify.

The 12 sides will be split into three groups of four based on World Rugby’s rankings on May 10. Using current standings, the 12 confirmed teams break down as follows:

  • Band 1: New Zealand, England, Australia, Ireland
  • Band 2: Wales, South Africa, Scotland, France
  • Band 3: Argentina, Japan, Georgia, Italy

The eight remaining nations heading to Japan 2019 have yet to be decided from qualifying competitions across the world. They will make up bands 4 and 5 in Kyoto.

England would need a disastrous, lose-to-all-comers-by-a-lot Six Nations to fall out of the top band. Wales could displace Ireland, though realistically that is an outside bet. Its reasonably safe to say that Band 1 is all-but finalised.

Band 1 sides will be separated in the pool phase of the competition.

Bands 2 and 3, however, are more fluid. The difference between fifth-placed Wales and ninth-placed, band 3-listed Argentina is just 2.64 ranking points. It’s less than a point between seventh and ninth.

Wales and South Africa should be safe, leaving three teams – Scotland, France and Argentina – in the running for the last two places in the second rank of the World Cup draw.

The Pumas fate is out of their hands, but it is possible that they could move up the rankings, if Scotland or France have a bad Six Nations.

This matters. If, say, France drop down to band 3 as a result of a bad run in the next seven weeks, their 2019 World Cup could see them drawn in a pool with New Zealand and Argentina; England and South Africa; or Australia and Wales; with the possibility that their pool could also feature a pure rugby nation such as Fiji, currently ranked 10th in the world but yet to qualify, remember.

And don’t forget, the draw takes place more than two years ahead of the World Cup. There is plenty of time for nations to change their stars. Look at what Eddie Jones has done for England in the 15 months since the last tournament, or what Michael Cheika did for Australia in the run-up to the 2015 competition (never mind what has happened since).

There is plenty of time between now and September 20, 2019, when the World Cup in Japan kicks off at the Tokyo Stadium, for the world rugby landscape to change.

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B
BeamMeUp 1 hour ago
The Springboks have something you don't have

A few comments. Firstly, I am a Bok fan and it's been a golden period for us. I hope my fellow Bok fans appreciate this time and know that it cannot last forever, so soak it all in!


The other thing to mention (and this is targeted at Welsh, English and even Aussie supporters who might be feeling somewhat dejected) is that it's easy to forget that just before Rassie Erasmus took over in 2018, the Boks were ranked 7th in the world and I had given up hope we'd ever be world beaters again.


Sport is a fickle thing and Rassie and his team have managed to get right whatever little things it takes to make a mediocre team great. I initially worried his methods might be short-lived (how many times can you raise a person's commitment by talking about his family and his love of his country as a motivator), but he seems to have found a way. After winning in 2019 on what was a very simple game plan, he has taken things up ever year - amazing work which has to be applauded! (Dankie Rassie! Ons wardeer wat jy vir die ondersteuners en die land doen!) (Google translate if you don't understand Afrikaans! 😁)


I don't think people outside South Africa fully comprehend the enormity of the impact seeing black and white, English, Afrikaans and Xhosa and all the other hues playing together does for the country's sense of unity. It's pure joy and happiness.


This autumn tour has been a bit frustrating in that the Boks have won, but never all that convincingly. On the one hand, I'd like to have seen more decisive victories, BUT what Rassie has done is expose a huge number of players to test rugby, whilst also diversifying the way the Boks play (Tony Brown's influence).


This change of both style and personnel has resulted in a lack of cohesion at times and we've lost some of the control, whereas had we been playing our more traditional style, that wouldn't happen. This is partially attributable to the fact that you cannot play Tony Brown's expansive game whilst also having 3 players available at every contact point to clear the defence off the ball. I have enjoyed seeing the Boks play a more exciting, less attritional game, which is a boring, albeit effective spectacle. So, I am happy to be patient, because the end justifies the means (and I trust Rassie!). Hopefully all these players we are blooding will give us incredible options for substitutions come next year's Rugby Championship and of course, the big prize in 2027.


Last point! The game of rugby has never been as exciting as it is now. Any of Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, France, Argentina, Scotland, England & Australia can beat one another. South Africa may be ranked #1, but I wouldn't bet my house in them beating France or New Zealand, and we saw Argentina beating both South Africa and New Zealand this year! That's wonderful for the game and makes the victories we do get all the sweeter. Each win is 100% earned. Long may it last!


Sorry for the long post! 🏉🌍

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