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The 2019 Gatland remarks that foreshadowed Welsh rugby's decline

Steve Hansen speaks with Warren Gatland prior to the World Cup 2019 bronze medal match between New Zealand and Wales in Tokyo (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

Did Warren Gatland see the storm clouds gathering for Welsh rugby back in 2019? A re-read of remarks made by the nation’s greatest ever head coach on eve of the Barbarians versus Wales game the month after they returned from Japan makes for weirdly prophetic reading in 2022.

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Since his departure after that Rugby World Cup, where Wales finished a more than respectable fourth, the trajectory has been resolutely downward for Welsh rugby.

A Six Nations title in 2021 papered over the cracks for Wayne Pivac’s side, but if any Welsh rugby fan was left with any residual optimism then a rude awakening in the form of a fifth-place finish in the same tournament and a humiliating home loss to Italy will have disabused them of it.

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Doom-mongers and perennial critics of the WRU are now sharpening their knives in what seems to have become a perpetual, moveable feast for those bemoaning the sport’s downfall in a country once besotted with the 15-man code.

If anything, it’s been worse away from the Test arena. It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say the regions have endured a season from hell, both in the URC and in Europe, while internal harassment allegations have rocked the union in recent weeks.

Even from a neutral perspective, it’s been a painful process to watch play out.

Welsh great Jonathan Davies told RugbyPass in February that he feared Wales’ decline needed to be arrested if they didn’t want a repeat of the 1990s.

Yet while the problems may be manifesting most visibly at Test level, there’s a widespread understanding that the issues are not just a case of a dip in form for the national team; it’s a malaise rooted deep in the structural failings of the Welsh system.

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And it might be that Gatland saw it coming.

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s hard not to read New Zealander’s November 2019 comments words as that of a man genuinely fearful for the future of the side he had guided to remarkable success for over a decade.

“I really hope for what we’ve achieved in the last 10-12 years, and we feel we’ve earned respect and put respect back into Wales as an international team, that the new coaches coming in continue to build on that,” Gatland said. “Because what we have done, what we have achieved, it would break my heart if Wales went back into the doldrums.

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“I just want them to continue. There’s an opportunity for the new group to come in and build on what we’ve created and to improve on it.

“It’s not to be too greedy on winning the Six Nations every year, but going out there and performing well in the Six Nations. And to continue to hopefully get a few Six Nations titles over the way and make sure we are as competitive as we can possibly be against the other top nations.

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“We feel we have done that, and I really want Wales to continue to build on that. I want to see these boys be as successful as they possibly can.”

Sadly, that’s not how it’s panning out.

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Poorfour 970 days ago

To be a bit contrarian, I don't see that much change in Wales's performance since the RWC.

They typically do well in years when their tougher 6N games are at home, and badly when they have to play tougher teams away. That has long seen them bouncing between being title challengers and scrabbling to avoid the wooden spoon, something that happened even under Gatland.

They also tend to raise their game for the RWC, but ultimately don't have the squad depth to win 3 knock out games in a row against the top teams.

That's been their story over pretty much every RWC cycle since 1999, barring the loss to Fiji at RWC 2007.

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JW 39 minutes ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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