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The Aki midfield puzzle, Sexton's double omen and restrained quarter-final expectation as Ireland head to Tokyo

(Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)

Samoa were viewed as a potential banana skin for Ireland in their final Pool A pool match, but that anxiety was misplaced as Joe Schmidt’s side made light work of the Islanders even though they had to play 51 minutes of the match a man down due to Bundee Aki’s red card. 

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The Samoans were one of the poorest sides at the 20-team tournament, their efforts corrupted by frequent indiscipline. 

They signed off from Japan having conceded an onerous 50 penalties in four matches, seven yellow cards and one red. No wonder they never threaten to be a problem to the pool’s leading three sides.  

Their plight, though, will be of no concern to Ireland as they head back to Tokyo after a trip south from Yokohama that included stopping off points in Shizuoka, Kobe and Fukuoka. 

The Irish are back in the quarter-finals and while they have only progressed as a runner-up and not as the pool winner they were expected to be, they arrive into this latest last-eight appearance in a far better state of health than four years ago when they were pool winners decimated by injuries.

(Continue reading below…)

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The jury is still out on the reliability of their current rugby, though. Their 2019 form simply hasn’t been anywhere near the stellar heights of 2018. But they will be relieved they will likely deal from a full deck with the potentially suspended Aki the only player of their 31 unavailable for selection to face New Zealand on Saturday.

Aki’s red creates midfield puzzle

Bundee Aki’s chances of beating the red card rap on Monday in Tokyo following his sending-off in Fukuoka appear very slim if the pattern of disciplinary hearings at the World Cup are anything to go by. 

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All five players previously handed a straight red card – four high tackles and one tip tackle – were handed suspensions that had a six-week entry point. Four were reduced by 50 per cent to a three-week punishment, with the suspension for Argentina’s Tomas Lavanini set at four.

Any similar suspension would rule Aki out of the remainder of Ireland’s campaign. Only Samoan Ed Fidow, who was sent off against Scotland for receiving two yellow cards, managed to beat a ban. 

Aki’s likely absence will leave Joe Schmidt with a midfield riddle to solve. Ever since he became eligible under the three-year residency rule to play for Ireland, Aki – red-carded by Nic Berry who previously red-carded USA’s John Quill versus England – has been a mainstay in the starting XV.

He has worn the No12 shirt in 23 of Ireland’s last 28 matches. In the five games he missed, Chris Farrell (twice), Stuart McCloskey (twice) and Robbie Henshaw filled the inside centre berth. 

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Farrell would appear to be next in line for the 12 slot, having formed a partnership with Garry Ringrose in the defeat to Japan at the World Cup and for the August warm-up versus Italy. 

However, with Henshaw, the regular pre-Aki era No12 selection, now back in harness following injury, there is every chance he will assume Aki’s role and link up with either Farrell or Ringrose wearing the 13 jersey.

The curveball, though, was how rusty Henshaw looked versus Samoa at 13, his struggles capped by his wayward pass being the cause for possession being lost in the lead-up to Aki’s carded high tackle on Ulupano Seuteni.

The legendary Brian O’Driscoll’s favoured Ireland midfield – even when Aki has been available – is Henshaw/Ringrose. ‘The partnership for me is – if both players are fit – Garry Ringrose and Robbie Henshaw,” he told RugbyPass before the World Cup. 

“It’s partly because of their understanding of playing together provincially as well (at Leinster)…Robbie and Garry are the starting partnership, all things being equal.”

With New Zealand in Ireland’s sights, it could well be time to reprise a centre partnership that has been mothballed at Test level.

Sexton’s double has precedent to be repeated

Johnny Sexton scoring tries for Ireland is a rare sight. Before Saturday’s double, the outhalf talisman had scored just two tries in his last 42 Test matches under Joe Schmidt, a barren run stretching back to a try in the opening 2014 June tour match versus Argentina in Resistencia.

Encouragingly, though, there is a precedent that his double in Fukuoka could be immediately backed up. When he scored twice versus Italy in Dublin in March 2014, he popped up the following week in Paris to grab another pair of tries and help Ireland clinch the Six Nations title win a win over France.

Pack’s ball carrying still needs improvement 

Ball carrying by the pack is the golden currency regarding the potency of this Irish side. It was the shortcoming that devastatingly let them down in defeat to Japan, their starting eight managing just 63 metres off 53 carries. That was far too little.

Fielding a pack where the only change was Tadhg Beirne starting at blindside for Peter O’Mahony, they collectively managed 93 metres off 78 carries versus Samoa with tighthead Tadhg Furlong standing out with his 27 metres from seven carries. 

Ireland, though, were still some way short of the peak aggressiveness that was achieved in the win 11 months ago versus New Zealand. That auspicious victory featured a 148-metre gain off 84 carries, the sort of eye-bulging numbers likely be required if World Cup history is to be made next weekend in Tokyo.   

Look what might happen when it’s least expected

Boom or bust are the traditional emotions associated with Irish rugby, with the middle ground of a more balanced perspective all too often ignored. Look at this 2019 campaign. 

Seemingly, heaps of money was backed on Ireland to win the World Cup following their comprehensive first match dismissal of Scotland, emotions that quickly visited the opposite end of the spectrum six days later when Ireland were ambushed by Japan to spark fears they would fail to make the quarter-finals. 

Now they are safely qualified on the back of Saturday’s trouncing of Samoa, they are preparing for a knock stage match that intriguingly won’t be accompanied by the unsettling, giddy level of optimism that existed in 2011 and 2015. 

When Ireland got to the quarter-finals four and eight years ago on the back of respective impressive round four pool wins over Italy in Dunedin and France in Cardiff, there was huge expectation that Wales and Argentina would also be brushed aside and Ireland would qualify for the semi-finals.

Those hopes were entirely misplaced, Ireland failing to live up to the favourites tag which is why next Saturday’s billing as underdogs versus defending champions New Zealand could perhaps work in their favour. 

Ireland aren’t expected to win… which is the very reason why they could actually go on and win. 

 

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The difference an accurate lineout makes

Ireland’s lineout accuracy is a constant source of interest. When it goes wrong, it has the capacity to seriously hinder them but when it is on the money, it is a vehicle that can generate invaluable momentum, particularly at the maul. 

A clean sheet with 16 throws in Fukuoka augurs well for the quarter-finals, especially the variety in the jumpers used by Rory Best off his 10 throws and Niall Scannell off his six. Iain Henderson fetched seven, Tadhg Beirne three, James Ryan and Peter O’Mahony two each, with CJ Stander and Jean Kleyn catching one apiece. 

That should help keep the Kiwis busy in the analysis room in the coming days.  

WATCH: Canada’s squad took to the streets of Kamaishi to help the local community following Typhoon Hagibis

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O
Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 2 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
LONG READ
LONG READ England need to face a few home truths if they are to relearn that winning habit England need to face a few home truths if they are to relearn that winning habit
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