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The All Blacks are comfortably the world's third best team right now
By Ben Smith
Two nations have lead the way in terms of winning and taking the game forward with enterprising play over this World Cup cycle.
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Those two Test sides are Ireland and France, both grand slam champions over the last two years in the Six Nations.
France completed an undefeated calendar year in 2022 while Ireland completed a historic series win in New Zealand before going on to complete a grand slam in early 2023.
It must be said that Ireland is more innovative than France, possessing a detailed attack unrivalled in the game. In the last chapter of Johnny Sexton’s career they have taken it to a level no one saw coming after the departure of Joe Schmidt.
France possess brutality and physicality up front and have produced some mesmerising tries through the genius play of Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack.
Both of them have logged wins over all of the Southern Hemisphere powers over this cycle, France has a 5-2 record against the Rugby Championship teams while Ireland is 6-1.
Ireland’s Six Nations clash against France in February remains the best game of the year so far as the newly crowned global leaders went at it in a titanic battle.
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They are both clearly a cut above in Europe and only one challenger from the Southern Hemisphere has emerged.
The All Blacks‘ run through the Rugby Championship could not have gone any better.
Argentina and South Africa were put away before halftime. The Championship title was sealed early in the second half in Melbourne when Caleb Clarke crashed over and Scott Barrett put his finger up to signal quiet time.
But the false signal for the All Blacks is none of these opponents are remotely in the same league as Ireland or France.
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What the Wallabies dished up in the first half in Dunedin with their attack is what France will do for 80 minutes, except instead of Tate McDermott running the show it will be Antoine Dupont.
McDermott failed to finish a would-be try that would have put the game beyond reach by getting caught on his back sniping down the blind side.
Dupont wouldn’t likely be so forgiving with the strength of a back rower and the vision of a playmaking flyhalf.
The All Blacks close rivals do not offer the same challenge that shutting down Ireland requires. The intricate Irish attack is not replicated anywhere else.
The Springboks’ attack was dialled down to their caveman setting with forward runners coming around the corner in the first half. A test of physicality but nothing else. No special reads required. Even a bit of width in the second half did catch the All Blacks out down Mark Telea’s edge.
There was a lot of gamesmanship at Mt Smart going on by the Springboks, not revealing much, but even at their best South Africa don’t run a ton of screens, don’t have detailed and timed running lines and don’t have well-designed scheme to create space.
Australia showed glimpses of a destructive power game over both Tests with the likes Will Skelton, Rob Valetini, and briefly Taniela Tupou.
They bashed over the gain line to build front foot ball but only could capitalise on it for 10 minutes out of 160 over two Tests.
They wasted so much prime attacking ball, not knowing when to hit the release to the backs to take the All Blacks when they were stretched. Often they would carry one time too many and ended up turned over or held up.
They possessed some dangerous individuals like Mark Nawaqanitawase and Jordan Petaia who created for Andrew Kellaway on the occasion, but the threats weren’t sustainable. When other Wallaby players had to combine to create, there wasn’t enough chemistry or high level skill.
Despite the improvements shown, the Wallabies are a side trying to implement new systems and coaching philosophies at the 11th hour and as such, weren’t going to be a finished product.
Over the last month the All Blacks have faced nothing like what they would face should they come up against Ireland in a quarter-final or France in the opening pool game.
The changes made to the All Blacks coaching staff following the Irish series have no doubt made the All Blacks a better team.
They are in a better place than 12 months ago and you would think the gap has narrowed with the top two nations.
New Zealand will be competitive, they always are, but until proven otherwise they will head in as underdogs against France and are comfortably the world’s third best team.
This didn't age well.
And is that confidence justified i n the light of the AB's demolition?
"What the Wallabies dished up in the first half in Dunedin with their attack is what France will do for 80 minutes".
I wonder what the author thinks of that comment after watching France v Scotland last weekend? Both teams playing rubbish for 40mins, no intensity, meandering to set pieces (I don't think I saw one single player sweating - despite the heatwave), a giant snooze fest despite what the scoreline and result would indicate.
Why are there so few games played between NH and SH teams these days? It does my head in. The All Blacks haven't played France in 2 years and yet here we are about to watch them play South Africa (yet again)...in England!
It amuses me how most are concerned about the ABs , the concern shud be with Northern Hemisphere it's been 20years for them , while you praise Six Nations and world rankings that means nothing .
Six Nation grand slams and world rankings don't win RWCs , Simon Middleton and Sara Hunter will tell you that , only hard work , fitness skill and teamwork and most of all DESIRE.
Good summary. Rugby Championship level not up to Ireland and France currently. So bigger tests to come. AB's in a much better position to challenge than expected though, with a lot of the weaknesses addressed, so those match ups will be tasty.
France would have assumed their B team was enough but clearly they're not as good as they thought they were. Their youth falls short of the "experience" necessary to win a home RWC. Powerful forwards with who I'd consider the best halfback in the world, imho they could make the final. Ireland, being ranked #1 must overcome a lot of pressure - once again - to win. All stats say they will fail and imho I agree. With Leinster losing the final, I feel less confident about Irelands' ability and stranglehold on world rugby. ABs are peaking and their attacking style this year is a clear strategy to play at pace. Still room for improvement which means curtains for anyone else. The 2nd test over Aussie is a misnomer as 9 frontline changes was always going to influence that result, yet still they won. Bookies have the ABs as favourites and so do I. Saying the Southern Hemisphere teams are not good competition is ludicrous however as we have won 8 RWCs out of 9.
Ben - this article will not age well
I'm more than happy with the underdog status, can't beat it for motivation for the All Blacks.
France literally just lost to Scotland and Ireland was average vs Italy. If the ABs did either of those they would be getting killed right now.
The team is finally clicking, the midfield pairing is firing, the Richie + Beaudy set up looks potent, Will Jordan on the wing, Aaron and Codie have regained their lost form and look better than they have in years, Scott Barrett is on fire, we finally have good options at Blindside, Sam Cane is in great form this year, Dane Coles is the perfect bench Hooker, Tyrel Lomax has given us an edge in Scrums that I haven't seen in a long time, Ardie is evergreen.
I don't think much will separate the top 3 teams, arguably the All Blacks are peaking at the right time, France are coming off a loss and I'm pretty sure that it's illegal for Ireland to win a quarter final.
Probably the most competitive world cup yet, the teams we aren't talking about have pretty easy roads to the Semis so teams like Argentina, England, Wales, Australia, Japan, Fiji and even Georgia all have a realistic shot at the quarters.