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The All Blacks can't have it both ways if tests aren't meaningful

The All Blacks huddle after winning The Rugby Championship match between the New Zealand All Blacks and Argentina Pumas at FMG Stadium Waikato on September 03, 2022 in Hamilton, New Zealand. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

This is what happens when you abandon all pretence of accountability.

By rights, the All Blacks should be applauded for beating Argentina 53-3 in Hamilton last Saturday.

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Now, I would argue it was an adequate performance over an opponent who was inadequate on the night.

I don’t know how the Pumas celebrated their win of the previous week but, given the way they behaved on the field after that match in Christchurch, I think most seasoned observers believed they’d never be as desperate seven days later.

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Frankly, Argentina looked like they’d spent most of the week in the hotel bar.

Oh well, it’s not as if these results matter.

That’s the issue for the All Blacks in 2022. New Zealand Rugby (NZR), through their continued endorsement of Ian Foster, have told us that outcomes are immaterial.

As long as the players like their head coach and are convinced that the team is “building,’’ then this season is a success.

Ordinarily a 50-point win over a credible foe would be cause for celebration. But given losses don’t count in 2022, we can hardly turn around and hail victories either.

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I feel a bit for the team in that regard. I mean it’s still rather embarrassing that they have to be shamed into performing to their potential, but that’s because rugby in New Zealand faces broader issues than just the men in black.

This isn’t an elite All Blacks team and there are systemic reasons for that.

It is kind of weird, though, that it seems to take a week of public and media criticism to rouse them into action, but it’s at least nice to know they will play well when they absolutely have to.

That is the issue I’ve always had with this regime. That performances and results can be consistently below previous expectations and yet nothing meaningful changes.

Provided the occasional victory is thrown in to quiet the baying masses, everything’s hunky dory.

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I’ve written before, partly tongue-in-cheek, that I reckon the All Blacks can go unbeaten for the rest of the year. Admittedly, I wrote that before the first Argentine test, but I stand by it.

I don’t see anything on the schedule that should frighten the team and I think we’re all entitled to expect a cleansweep of the clashes with Australia, Japan, Wales, Scotland and even England.

The question is though: can we congratulate the All Blacks for it if they do?

And I mean that.

The team and NZR can’t have it both ways. Either every test result is important or none of them are.

I do genuinely wish there were sterner tests ahead of this side in the remainder of the season, because it is difficult to get a read on whether improvements are being made.

I am enthused about the propping rotation of Ethan de Groot, George Bowler, Tyrel Lomax and Fletcher Newell. Samisoni Taukei’aho looks an outstanding hooker and I still think Dane Coles can be relied upon in 20-minute cameos.

Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick and Scott Barrett are excellent locks, Ardie Savea an admirable No.8 and Caleb Clarke an emerging star on the wing.

But I retain misgivings about openside and blindside flanker, halfback, first five-eighth, second five-eighth, centre, right wing and fullback.

I’d love it if England at Twickenham was a real challenge. I’d love the All Blacks to face some real adversity there and to find a way to prevail.

Ultimately, though, we have what we have – in terms of players and coaches – and not a lot’s going to change between now and the World Cup.

Football is the model for rugby now. Outside of tournaments such as the world cup and European championships, every other international match in that sport is a friendly.

They’re games help to build confidence and combinations, but the outcomes are essentially meaningless.

I find it a shame to see All Blacks test matches become an irrelevance, but that is the situation that NZR have created.

Beating Argentina on Saturday was certainly better than losing to them, but it proved nothing.

All the eggs are in the World Cup basket and the only results that matter will be there.

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Comments

19 Comments
R
Rob 791 days ago

Writing from and looking from afar in the Philippines, the one objective piece that you and the many NZ public are miserably failing to see is that it was never about Foster. They had planned reviews in place from the beginning of the year to address his coaching team and carried them out as planned and scheduled.
Other articles suggesting Robertson missed out again is baseless and kindergarten opinionated nonsense.

W
Willie 791 days ago

Excellent article which summarises the thoughts of many.
Nothing much will change as Foster will be loyal to the players who came out publicly in support of him.
Someone recently described the ABs as a hibernating bear which had been unceremoniously disturbed. Keeping them awake and angry will be a task for Schmidt and Ryan.

B
Brett 791 days ago

I still believe ardie should play 7 with a specialist 8 and 6 but you have to acknowledge cane had his best game in a long time

J
JD Kiwi 791 days ago

I don't think that Foster should be head coach, but even I found this article mean and unfair. Especially the bit where he says that we are entitled to expect a clean sweep of the two Bledisloe tests, Japan, Wales, England and Scotland. That sense of entitlement is exactly the reason why we're considered up ourselves and arrogant. Remember, England beat Australia and South Africa last year so they are no mugs. This was nothing more than a blatant attempt to put our team in a no win situation.

We need to accept that the McCaw era was a special time and the NH teams are much better than they were because of the SH coaches and players. We're going to have ups and downs and aren't entitled to beat anyone.

As for the idea that losses don't matter, nobody has said or implied that.

I don't agree with the tactics and selections of most of the past two or three seasons but I'm hopeful that the evidence of the much better tactics in Joberg and Hamilton will ensure that the penny has finally dropped. I'm optimistic that were at least on the right track.

Ardie, Cane and Frizzel/Barrett are an effective, balanced trio. Brodie, Whitelock, Barrett and Frizzel are a hardworking 4/5/6/19. The front row kids are a revelation. Smith and Mo'unga are distributing well and getting the most from their carriers and centres. Mo'unga & Havili are getting good territory.

Now we need to prove that we can be consistent.

P
Poe 791 days ago

Determinedly
miserable. Maybe Argentina weren't all half cut as your slur implies? NZ always pill on the point on various occasions. Nothing unusual. Inconvenient for yoyr narrative though, i can see that. And if the Boks win by 12 in a few weeks will you call it unthinkable? Reckon...

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RedWarrior 15 minutes ago
Three-way race to be number one in World Rugby men's rankings

IF SA and NZ win then its 1,2,3 SA/NZ/IRL Otherwise as you were. This is largely irrelevant beyond bragging rights.


As I have pointed out elsewhere the practical use of the Rankings is to determine the seedings bands for the RWC draw. The draw takes place early 2026 and hopefully the rankings will be taken from then.


Important to be in the top 6, the top 12. (and likely the top 4).

This is because there are now 6 groups in the RWC 2027.

If you are in top 6 you are in Seeding Band 1. That means none of the other top 6 will be in your group.

Seeding Band 2 are teams from 7-12, who will have a top 6 team but no other 7-12 team.

After England's defeat by NZ there is clear water between NZ in 3rd, France in 4th and England in 5th. England are desperate for top4, ill come back and explain why later.

Lets look at Seeding Band 1 and 6th place. If you make 6th, no top 6 team is in your group, you are top dog. If you win your group, you won't be facing a top 6 team in your 1/8th final, you will be facing a weaker team. If you fail to make 6th place you WILL have a top 6 team in your group and if you don't win your group you WILL (probably) meet a top 6 in the 1/8 final. That's massive.


Its Argentina holding 6th now. Assuming England hold 5th, then its a 4 horse race for 6th. Argentina, Scotland, Italy and ...Australia. (ranked 6,7,8,9)

Australia play the Lions in NH summer 2025 they are running out of time to get up to 6th for their own RWC. They MUST make a move now. They must beat Wales and they really must beat Scotland to gain points and take points off them. Could they surprise England or Ireland? England may be the better bet but Schmidt knows Ireland so well having masterminded their downfall in France.

Another one to watch is Italy V Argentina. Italy are ambitious and they will want to start pushing the likes of Argentina. If they win this they are still in the hunt. Well worth a watch either way.


Top4: I think the top 6 will be seeded, all the way through from the draw. If thats the case then the top 4 will be seeded to avoid each other until the semi. Good for more certainty around ticket sales etc. That's a possible reason why England want in there. You're not in there you are hitting a top 4 team in a QF. That's an extra 50:50 match you can do without and avoid by being top 4.


Lets look at what Seeding bands might look like with todays rankings:


Seeding Band 1

IRE/SA/NZ/FRA/ENG/ARG

Seeding Band 2

SCO/ITA/AUS/FIJ/WAL/GEO


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: FIJI

1/8 final opponent GEORGIA

Prognosis: advance to 1/4 and potentially beyond


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if NOT in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: SOUTH AFRICA

1/8 final opponent NEW ZEALAND

Prognosis: You know the prognosis


I am pretty sure this is not lost on Joe Schmidt?


Keep in mind when enjoying the matches.

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G
GS 1 hour ago
Are the All Blacks doomed to a 70% flatline?

The key is realising this AB side is not what they are now but what they will be in 2025/26.


You can already see a Power bench forming, and I would highlight that people watch the AB XV game vs Munster and watch Fabian Holland - he, in the next 24 months, will be WC and bring some huge physicality to the team.


Then, aligned with Peter Lakai, probably at 7, another WC talent, the AB pack by 2026 will probably both be starting and on the bench - be rated as No 1 or 2 packs in the world.


Then, there is the usual WC talent around the backline, and the missing link is Mo'unga. Unlike in last year's WC, the coming forward pack for the ABs, is similar to the Bok pack, It will be packed full of power, and the key to this is a realitively young pack.


So I think we will lose to Ireland and France in the coming weeks, but watch out as this pack builds into - I mean, look at the tight five and loose forwards that are coming for the ABs - De Groot, Lomax, Williams, Tosi, Taylor, Ofa T, Samson T, Aumua, Patrick T, Barrett, Vai, Fabian H, Setiti, Lakai, Savea, Frizzell (understand they are attempting to get him and Mo'unga back), Blackadder, Papalii and bar Barrett, Savea, Patrick T, Taylor - pretty young in international terms.


Huge front row starting and on bench, Power locks and usual class in loose forwards - only missing ingredient is a WC 10 and with Mo'unga back probably in 2026, these ABs are trending in a very healthy direction.

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