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The All Blacks lost their edge years ago
By Ned Lester
Recent All Blacks results have sparked an insecurity throughout New Zealand, the gravity of which hasn’t been felt in over a decade.
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The Irish gave the Kiwi’s a taste of their own medicine, not only securing their first ever series win on New Zealand soil but pushing their hosts to their lowest ever world ranking: fourth. Now, the All Blacks’ greatest foe, the Springboks, have added to the misery by pushing that ranking down another rung to fifth.
It’s not the most offensive ranking to receive, every other tier one nation has experienced worse. However, For New Zealand, you may as well have had Malcolm Marx run straight at every All Blacks supporter one by one and have Tadhg Beirne come through afterwards stealing the dazed masses’ shoes, all while maintaining his feet of course.
The reaction from the fanbase has been brutal, New Zealand’s top coach, captain, and now CEO have all been targeted in a slew of online comments which, in typical comment section fashion, are more about expressing anger than writing a coherent sentence. The receding red mist then exposes a question that has the world’s most devoted rugby community wondering… Are the All Blacks getting worse, or is the rest of the world evolving at a greater pace than us?
Irish players and pundits alike were quick to mention that the polished and powerful team we see today is a side years in the making. Starting way back under Joe Schmitt’s leadership, a culture was built, from there, a brand of winning rugby has blossomed. Amplified of course by Andy Farrell’s talents, the Irish have strengths in all the right areas and their few weaknesses seemed to dissolve following the game one review session.
New Zealand’s descent to the repulsive position of fifth best team should be viewed as an inverse of Ireland’s rise to the top, with the key turning point being 2017’s British and Irish Lions series.
In the six years prior to the Lions tour, New Zealand lost only four matches. In the next two years leading into the 2019 World Cup, there were another four losses capped by a semi-final demolition at the hands of Eddie Jones’ England.
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Since then, throughout a Covid-laden schedule, the All Blacks have lost eight games. The gradual unraveling of the All Blacks has absolutely been a result of the rest of the world evolving at a greater rate, thanks in large part to the rush defense Warren Gatland’s all-star side debuted in 2017.
Only in temporary spurts have the All Blacks looked to be comfortable winners since 2017. The attacking cross kick had its moment, the dual playmaker model didn’t achieve much and most recently, hitting the third man off the pod.
All tactics provided more of a momentary relief rather than any sustainable recipe for success. While the All Blacks have been trialing subtle changes, the rest of the world has had five years to evolve and perfect their versions of the rush defense, and judging by recent results, they’ve done a very good job.
This isn’t just a physical shift, there’s been five years of dominance slowly slipping through the All Blacks’ fingers. Five years of cracks appearing in what was once an impenetrable wall. Five years of the free flowing, broken play heroics that lies so intrenched in the All Blacks identity being increasingly nullified.
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Within the camp, it’s taken a toll. Outside New Zealand, it’s breathed life into what is now a founded belief that the black mountain is not just surmountable, but some sturdy boots have worn a jogging track into the side which is now considered a great spot for a Saturday stroll.
It’s all well and good theorizing how a dominant forward pack could provide front foot ball, execute at the breakdown and disrupt the rush defense, giving the backs an actual chance to pass the ball to each other.
But the All Blacks don’t have a dominant forward pack, and even their dominant ball runners are either waiting in the wide channels (Akira Ioane) or receiving the ball completely flatfooted with three of the oppositions hardest hitters charging straight at them (Ardie Savea).
A loyal few remain optimistic, hoping these “little changes” both Ian Foster and Sam Cane keep mentioning are the foundational pieces that allow this team to employ a gameplan we haven’t had a chance to see yet.
That optimism is founded on there being a solution to the rush defense hiding just behind the curtain, ready to make its grand entrance once the time is right. However, if the comment section crew are right about Foster, then you’d hope NZR commit to the rebuild.
However, problems that are this long in the making rarely offer quick fixes, if the All Blacks are to get back to their winning ways, it’ll take some real Kiwi ingenuity.
Northern hemisphere rugby has been investing in the professional game to a much higher level in recent years, it was an economic imperative for them to do so after the AB's high energy set piece running game started to dominate international test rugby, the northern hemisphere's changeless professional game needed to become more adaptable and more controlled, so it was always a matter of time before the tide would turn for the All Blacks, but the public expectation of a fast high scoring game whenever the AB's ran onto the field would continue as European and South African journeyman rugby tactics developed, along with future defensive solutions which were always there if you watched League.
In recent times the AB's have become locked into trying to put on a performance, winning ugly is not on their CV, especially for the younger hyped players who like their fame and possible fortune as try scoring machines, changing tactics to suit the opposition especially versus tough nut teams like the Bok's does seem to have become extraordinarily difficult, the strategic versatility is not as it should be for modern test match rugby, if you know a team is going to blockade you in your 22 then you slow the game right down and play for penalties and kick for territory to wind the clock down, if you're the fitter defensive team there's a good chance you'll start to frustrate the opposition and get a Yellow card or two if you get the refs attention.
It is what it is, if the opposition is playing the better game plan then you match it or try to do that plan better, whether its potentially boring rugby or not, the Bok's have learnt that, what it may mean for the careers of some promising young athletes only time will tell, but one thing is for sure, the current All Blacks coaching staff, or their successors do not have a couple of years left to decide what they want to do before the coming RWC.
The Springboks were at the place where the AB's are now pre-2018 (maybe just 7 to 8 times worse off). Die hard Springboks fans would never forget the absolute humiliation of a 57 - 0 defeat under Allister Coetzee's coaching (including losses to Italy and Pumas). I am not sure its the best thing to drop a coach 1 year out of the World Cup - its a massive risk. What I will say is that so many of the current Springbok players were part of that same player group that were absolutely humiliated in 2016 and 2017. It is not past this AB team to rise up and be great again (even though I am a Springbok fan and would not enjoy it LOL). Hard times are the best teacher especially for young and developing players.
Much of the commentary on the All-Blacks’ disarray suggests that it is a train wreck that has been careening down the track for years and that the people whose job it is to spot that kind of thing and nip it in the bud were inept. The main scapegoat has been the AB head coach, Ian Foster. This ‘theory’ implies that the All-Blacks’ demise is largely of their own making.
A competing or (for some) complementary theory is that the North has closed the gap on the South. There is simply not as much distance between the top sides as there had been, say, even five years ago. Coaching and playing standards have risen in the North arguably because there has been a greater exchange of players and coaches between the hemispheres. Playing styles have also become more standardized. The once seemingly indomitable and infallible (in the South) have become fallible. More than any other, the Irish team epitomizes the transformation that has taken place.
But the most plausible explanation is surely that it is a bit of both, though mainly the latter. The northern hemisphere sides are simply a lot better than they used to be. And, in some cases, like the Irish, a lot, lot better. For this observer, there was clearly some underestimation of this by the All Blacks (coaches and players). The rude awakening at the hands of the Irish demonstrated this but it also exposed several structural weaknesses in the team that have been confirmed by the defeat last week to the Springboks. The front row, the backrow and the centre combination are clearly problematic, but not beyond immediate repair. De Groot must start. Cane must go. And the back line must allow the combinations established so well by the Blues in Super Rugby to have a go.
With those changes, which would yield more and better ball in the right parts of the field and the ability to make the best use of it, I would expect the All-Blacks to get back to their winning ways. Particularly now that the players must surely understand that gone are the days when all they had to do was turn up, do the Haka, and the rest would take care of itself.
It's amazing how everyone is sticking the boot into the ABs. They haven't been to able for years because the ABs have ruled the world of rugby for the past century, so now when they're down, everyone's putting the boot in. Remember, the ABs were THE team to beat, the bench mark for all other teams. Yes there's been a decline in the past 12 months but to be completely writing them off, crock of shit. The ABs will bounce back, that's what great team do. Under the right coaching staff, the ABs will once again kick ass!!!!
What the article says, and what is completely true, is that the ABs have been getting progressively worse since 2017. It is not just 12 months of bad results, it's the preceding four years of not making any progress, and in many cases going backwards in key areas.
When you say great teams bounce back what do you mean? Only a handful of these players have been involved in a great ABs team, and only one of them is world class - Only Ardie would make a world XV imo. NZ doesn't have the players available to simply "bounce back" and be no.1 again. This isn't a blip, it's a culmination of 5-10 years investing in the wrong areas. NZ is missing a whole generation of world class forwards. They've have been so outmatched against their last 3 opponents it's bordered on embarrassing.
With a change in coaching set up they could absolutely steal the next World Cup as a lot of luck is involved in winning a tournament, but their days of turning just turning up and putting teams away are over.
Kiwis don't like adopting other countries methods, and think playing their way just needs to be harder, faster, more accurate. My take is that the current 15 if coached and playing in Europe would be winners in no time. Unfortunately the mindset won't change.
Good observation NIck, it's true we are insular, my friends and I who are ex club players and huge ABs fans believe the team is focused inwardly instead of externally. So the analysis focuses on themselves instead of their opponents. Who are all analysing our plan and pulling it apart while we focus on ourselves. Its time for a big change and refresh with the ABs and it is coming. NZ culture is humility but when it comes to the ABs we have an undercurrent of hubris. Every decade or so it needs correcting. We are just lucky the last correction, which was not long after the turn of the century, lasted so long. So we have a generation stuck in it. Razor is coming!