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The All Blacks’ road to Rugby World Cup glory starts in Mendoza

Sam Cane and the All Blacks sing the national anthem during The Rugby Championship match between the New Zealand All Blacks and Argentina Pumas at FMG Stadium Waikato on September 03, 2022 in Hamilton, New Zealand. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

Win, lose or draw, the All Blacks’ hopes of winning the Rugby World Cup will neither be realised nor dashed when they get their international campaign underway this weekend.

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Having made the long trip to South America on Sunday, the All Blacks are now just a couple of days away from their Rugby Championship opener against Los Pumas in Mendoza.

While rugby fans continue to count down the days until the opening match of the sport’s most prestigious event – 64 days at the time of writing – they’ll have to wait a little bit longer.

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All Blacks captain Sam Cane won’t hoist the Webb Ellis Cup in triumph this weekend, and the team can’t etch their name into the record books as world champions.

On the flip side of that very same coin, the New Zealanders won’t be made to wait four more years for another chance at glory. At least not yet.

But that doesn’t take anything away from this highly anticipated Test match. In a World Cup year, this TRC clash simply means more – it just has to.

The road to Rugby World Cup glory starts in Mendoza on Sunday morning (NZST). Ian Foster and Co have to get it right.

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Failing to do so may lead to a sense of panic amongst supporters, and could force selectors to give up on players, combinations and strategies far too soon.

The Rugby Championship will set the tone for their World Cup campaign, and for the All Blacks, it all starts in Argentina.

On a beautiful day in Mendoza, with birds chirping and barely a cloud in the sky, All Blacks assistant coach Jason Ryan briefly met with this journalist for a quick interview on Monday.

With a smile on his face, Ryan was visibly in good spirits ahead of the All Blacks’ first Test match of 2023. The squad had just assembled at their hotel the night before, and were about to head out for their first gym session.

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Clearly, the All Blacks were settling in quite nicely.

But during our brief conversation, Ryan seemed almost shocked after hearing me mutter the phrase ‘Rugby World Cup.’

Ryan was quite dismissive, saying that “We haven’t really even talked about the World Cup.”

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The All Blacks are here to do a job. What happens in France later this year is out of their control for the time being – they’re focused on the Pumas.

The sentiment of that comment should instil a sense of confidence within fans of the three-time World Cup champions. They’re focused and aren’t underestimating a very physical Argentine side.

But from an external point of view, as someone who is not part of the All Blacks’ inner sanctum, it’s almost impossible not to think about these comments a bit more deeply.

While the All Blacks may not be thinking about the Rugby World Cup, rugby fans certainly are.

Time is running out, and while that’s exciting for fans, it’s potentially a challenge for the 20 teams set to chase rugby immortality in France.

With just four Test matches between now and their Rugby World Cup team naming, the All Blacks will be trialling players, combinations and strategies throughout The Rugby Championship.

Flyhalf Damian McKenzie was training at flyhalf on Tuesday, and Beauden Barrett at fullback. The pair have both been named to start in those positions on Saturday afternoon (local time).

It’s exciting, there’s no doubt about that.

If these two players can get the most out of each other on the field, then the All Blacks will be significantly better than what they were during an underwhelming start to their 2022 campaign.

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But if they don’t over the next few weeks, then the All Blacks may have to revert to older strategies – techniques that served the team well but failed to position them as world-beaters.

If it doesn’t work this weekend, then it might already be time to face the music ahead of next weekend’s clash against the Springboks in Auckland.

That’s what makes this weekend’s Test a quasi-Rugby World Cup opener. At least in terms of significance, it certainly is.

And that doesn’t just go for the All Blacks, either.

When the Springboks host the Wallabies in Pretoria, both teams – especially Australia under new coach Eddie Jones – will look to establish their identities.

Players will be thrust into the Test arena for the first time, and radical changes to the game plan may be introduced.

But if they can’t get it to click over the next few weeks, then what? Panic must follow.

Argentina have never beaten their southern hemisphere rivals from New Zealand on home soil, but will be full of belief after a couple of history-making victories over the New Zealanders – winning two of the last six Tests.

For a team fuelled by passion, confidence and a never-say-die attitude, Los Pumas will be licking their lips at the prospect of creating even more history in a Rugby World Cup year.

With a long flight home ahead of them, the All Blacks don’t want to be obsessing about a defeat. There’s always pressure on the All Blacks, but it feels a bit more intense this week.

They’re flying under the radar, and that’s an interesting reality for them ahead of the World Cup, but the All Blacks won’t want to crash and burn in Mendoza – but very well could.

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J
JW 4 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

In another recent article I tried to argue for a few key concept changes for EPCR which I think could light the game up in the North.


First, I can't remember who pointed out the obvious elephant in the room (a SA'n poster?), it's a terrible time to play rugby in the NH, and especially your pinnacle tournament. It's been terrible watching with seemingly all the games I wanted to watch being in the dark, hardly able to see what was going on. The Aviva was the only stadium I saw that had lights that could handle the miserable rain. If the global appeal is there, they could do a lot better having day games.


They other primary idea I thuoght would benefit EPCR most, was more content. The Prem could do with it and the Top14 could do with something more important than their own league, so they aren't under so much pressure to sell games. The quality over quantity approach.


Trim it down to two 16 team EPCR competitions, and introduce a third for playing amongst the T2 sides, or the bottom clubs in each league should simply be working on being better during the EPCR.


Champions Cup is made up of league best 15 teams, + 1, the Challenge Cup winner. Without a reason not to, I'd distribute it evenly based on each leauge, dividing into thirds and rounded up, 6 URC 5 Top14 4 English. Each winner (all four) is #1 rank and I'd have a seeding round or two for the other 12 to determine their own brackets for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. I'd then hold a 6 game pool, home and away, with consecutive of each for those games that involve SA'n teams. Preferrably I'd have a regional thing were all SA'n teams were in the same pool but that's a bit complex for this simple idea.


That pool round further finalises the seeding for knockout round of 16. So #1 pool has essentially duked it out for finals seeding already (better venue planning), and to see who they go up against 16, 15,etc etc. Actually I think I might prefer a single pool round for seeding, and introduce the home and away for Ro16, quarters, and semis (stuffs up venue hire). General idea to produce the most competitive matches possible until the random knockout phase, and fix the random lottery of which two teams get ranked higher after pool play, and also keep the system identical for the Challenge Cup so everthing is succinct. Top T2 side promoted from last year to make 16 in Challenge Cup

207 Go to comments
J
JW 9 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I had a look at the wiki article again, it's all terribly old data (not that I'd see reason for much change in the case of SA).

Number Of Clubs:

1526

Registered+Unregistered Players:

651146

Number of Referees:

3460

Pre-teen Male Players:

320842

Pre-teen Female Player:

4522

Teen Male Player:

199213

Teen Female Player:

4906

Senior Male Player:

113174

Senior Female Player:

8489

Total Male Player:

633229

Total Female Player:

17917


So looking for something new as were more concerned with adults specifically, so I had a look at their EOY Financial Review.

The total number of clubs remains consistent, with a marginal increase of 1% from 1,161 to 1,167. 8.1.

A comparative analysis of verified data for 2022 and 2023 highlights a marginal decline of 1% in the number of female players, declining from 6,801 to 6,723. Additionally, the total number of players demonstrates an 8% decrease, dropping from 96,172 to 88,828.

So 80k+ adult males (down from 113k), but I'm not really sure when youth are involved with SAn clubs, or if that data is for some reason not being referenced/included. 300k male students however (200k in old wiki data).


https://resources.world.rugby/worldrugby/document/2020/07/28/212ed9cf-cd61-4fa3-b9d4-9f0d5fb61116/P56-57-Participation-Map_v3.pdf has France at 250k registered but https://presse-europe1-fr.translate.goog/exclu-europe-1-le-top-10-des-sports-les-plus-pratiques-en-france-en-2022/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp has them back up at 300k registered.


The French number likely Students + Club, but everyone collects data different I reckon. In that WR pdf for instance a lot of the major nations have a heavily registered setup, were as a nation like England can penetrate into a lot more schools to run camps and include them in the reach of rugby. For instance the SARU release says only 29% of schools are reached by proper rugby programs, where as the 2million English number would be through a much much higer penetration I'd imagine. Which is thanks to schools having the ability to involve themselves in programs more than anything.


In any case, I don't think you need to be concerned with the numbers, whether they are 300 or 88k, there is obviously a big enough following for their pro scenes already to have enough quality players for a 10/12 team competition. They appear ibgger than France but I don't really by the lower English numbers going around.

207 Go to comments
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LONG READ Does South Africa have a future in European competition? Does South Africa have a future in European competition?
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